When will the catering industry return to normal?

this year is destined to be extraordinary. Tourism and catering industry have always been closely related. Both industries need huge crowds of people and physical consumers, but now the epidemic is still very serious around the world. Therefore, many practitioners in the tourism and catering industry hope that they can recover soon. When will they return to normal?

Now, more than half of the restaurants in the country have resumed work, but people are waiting for customers one after another. It is expected to last for one year, and it will be possible to fully restore the glory of the catering industry after one year. After all, people's psychological level is still very sensitive, and there is a process of accepting accommodation.

From Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou to Shenzhen and Chengdu, all the catering people are hungry. In the long run, great changes will definitely take place in the catering industry. Nowadays, eating out is not only a pleasure, but also a charity.

A few days ago, according to the big data statistics of a take-away platform, the return to work rate of catering businesses nationwide has exceeded 55%. With the arrival of the tide of returning to work, the demand for meals has increased, and catering enterprises are also resuming business.

However, the reporter learned from many sources that many restaurants and restaurants that have opened their doors in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu are generally embarrassed by the lack of doors.

It is predicted that in the near future, a restaurant "bankruptcy tide" sweeping across the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen may be surging.

Beijing: The worst may not happen until next year.

on March 5th, 28, the 41st COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control press conference was held in Beijing, which put forward stricter epidemic prevention requirements for the operation of small restaurants. According to the reporter's understanding, the canteens in Beijing are gradually picking up, and some old-fashioned restaurants such as Quanjude, Tongheju, HSBC Jiaozilou, Hongbinlou, BBQ Bay, BBQ Season, Emei Restaurant, Liuquanju and Casserole House are also restrictively restoring their canteens, but it is still difficult to restore them.

Restaurants on Guijie Street in Beijing, photo source: Beijing News

Chang Xiaojun, a Beijing catering expert, told reporters that the control in Beijing is quite strict at present. Most of the restaurants that open restaurants are state-owned brands, and some old brands and fast food restaurants mainly sell them to the outside world. At the same time, even if restaurants are open, consumers are afraid to go home for consumption, resulting in many catering enterprises still afraid to resume business.

He believes that with the further control of the epidemic, mid-April is the "turning point" for the reopening of restaurants in Beijing, because the isolation date of people returning to Beijing has ended at the end of March, and the manpower of catering enterprises has been guaranteed. Optimistically, it is possible that most catering enterprises will be able to resume eating in early May. However, it is still necessary to wait until the epidemic is completely controlled before consumers can regain their consumer confidence.

Hu Hotel, Guijie, Beijing, photo source: Beijing News

Zhang Handong, a catering investor in Beijing Jinyuan Hotel, said that only about 1% of restaurants in Beijing have resumed eating, most of which are state-owned and chain fast food restaurants. However, these stores that have resumed dining are not optimistic, because they have to follow strict catering service guidelines, and the public's consumer confidence has not yet recovered. At the same time, due to the postponement and cancellation of a large number of meetings and wedding banquets, hotels, restaurants and other large restaurants were hit hard. He believes that according to the current epidemic control situation, the catering business may improve in July and August, but it can only be done in September and October when the demand for catering is high. If normal operation can be resumed at the end of the year, it is already quite a good result. At worst, it may be next year.

He went on to say that next, some large single-store restaurants in Beijing, especially Cantonese restaurants, may take the lead, because Cantonese restaurants often have higher costs in terms of ingredients, manpower and rent. Although chain catering enterprises can persist for a while, overall, the situation is not optimistic.

In the future, catering enterprises in Beijing

Recently, Shanghai Catering and Cooking Industry Association pointed out in its "Guidelines for Shanghai Catering Service Industry to Resume Production and Market" (second edition) that the current resumption rate of catering service in Shanghai is 62.6%. Among the member enterprises of Shanghai Catering and Cooking Industry Association, the resumption rate of dinner enterprises is about 5%, the resumption rate of mass breakfast enterprises is 8%, and the resumption rate of Chinese fast food and western fast food is 9%.

However, according to online rumors, many well-known restaurants, such as Ba Lu Si, Blackstone, Stone Brewing, and _ izakaya, Inkood, ZenTsuki Mountain Monthly Cooking, PokeLab, Morton Seafood Steakhouse, Yuan Shizu Instant-boiled Mutton and so on, have announced their closure. Not only that, some street food and beverage outlets also posted notices of transfer. Some catering experts believe that this tide of closure may continue to spread.

Teacher Liang, the owner of a Cantonese restaurant in Shanghai, told the reporter that the guidelines for the resumption of catering services in Shanghai are relatively loose. However, once the business is resumed, water, electricity, food, labor and other expenses will still be paid and distributed normally. People dare not go out to spend money during this period, and there will be no large-scale dinner in the short term. Compared with other industries, the recovery time of catering industry is longer.

He thinks that at present, Shanghai residents are more keen on taking out food than eating in the canteen. At present, a steamed stuffed bun shop he is familiar with can deliver more than 3 take-away steamed stuffed buns every day, exceeding the take-away turnover before opening the canteen. However, some large restaurants, such as bars, western restaurants, restaurants and so on. It is difficult to take it out, because the rent is high and the cost of reopening is high, so it will be difficult to keep up. Next, there will be a wave of store closures, and the Shanghai catering industry may face a major reshuffle.

He went on to say, optimistically speaking, the Golden Week of May Day is a turning point for Shanghai to fully restore its catering. Because the Golden Week holiday has been confirmed and the epidemic has been controlled, restaurants that can survive will usher in a wave of consumption rebound.

Guangzhou: It is expected to return to normal level ahead of schedule.

As early as February 21st, all districts in Guangzhou have resumed dining in the lobby. However, except for some restaurants with tea markets, which can restore their usual turnover by 3-4%, many restaurants that restore dining in the lobby still have a turnover of less than 3%.

The reporter found that in places where citizens and tourists are "foraging", such as Jiazheng Square, Tian Huan Square, taikoo hui and Huifu Road Food Street, the attendance rate of many restaurants is less than 3%, and even some shops are still not open. Catering people in Guangzhou are generally faced with the problem of "it is difficult to start a business, but it is also difficult not to start a business".

Mr. Huang, the founder of a well-known Cantonese cuisine brand, thinks that Guangzhou Catering Expo will improve slightly in March, but it is still not optimistic. Most importantly, it takes time to restore consumer confidence. First, the national epidemic growth rate should be zero. Secondly, masks should be worn all over the country. Finally, the primary school will start. Only in this way can consumers' confidence in Guangzhou be completely restored. Optimistic estimates will not return to normal until at least May.

Mr. Chen, a catering expert, said that in the next two months, the catering industry in Guangzhou will usher in a "wave of closure". However, not many of them closed down directly because of the epidemic, but their subsequent pressures, such as the break of the capital chain, the decline of market consumption power, the reduction of profits, and even the callback and increase of rents, may lead to the closure of some small restaurants without brand influence and some stores with big brands that are difficult to transform. The "online celebrity shops" that emphasize marketing, neglect products, play with concepts and speculate on fashion may be the first batch to be eliminated.

Ms. Cai, who runs Sichuan cuisine in Guangzhou, told reporters that although the restaurant is open, the 4-square-meter storefront can only seat 12 people according to regulations. The current turnover is only about 3 yuan a day, but it still has to pay 4 yuan for labor, water and electricity, rent and so on. Every day. If this goes on, there will be no money to pay the rent next month and the business will have to close down.

However, according to the latest news from official website, the Guangzhou Municipal Health and Health Commission this afternoon, except Yuexiu District, all other areas are medium-risk areas.

According to the reporter's understanding, Shenzhen's guiding opinions on restricting the development of restaurants and private rooms (boxes) services for various catering business units (stores) with medium risk prevention and control level include:

People must take their temperature before eating; Ask customers to wear masks; The actual number of people dining in the lobby shall not exceed 5% of the usual number; The interval between meals for each group of customers at each table is not less than 1 minutes; Customers sit at intervals, staggered and opposite, with an interval of not less than 1m. Fast food restaurant has a table for one person. If the private room (box) is small, only one table is allowed, and it is not allowed to spell tables.

The situation of a shopping plaza restaurant in Shenzhen after the resumption of eating comes from Shenzhen News Network.

Mr. Deng, who runs a seafood restaurant in Shenzhen, said that his store has not resumed work at present because seafood consumption is relatively high and the cost of take-out is relatively high. If he returns to work, all expenses will suffer even greater losses.

he believes that it is only after the food and beverage prevention and control measures are appropriately relaxed that the business can be resumed. According to him, at present, it is difficult for most catering enterprises in Shenzhen to return to their previous turnover of 3%. If this continues, some small restaurants directly affected by the epidemic may close down first, and some catering enterprises that have follow-up problems due to the resumption of work may also close down before the end of the epidemic.

Lin, chairman of Bach Caspian Records Company, told reporters that Bach Caspian Records Company started to resume work at the end of February. At present, its 45 stores have opened restaurants as required.

At present, consumers' enthusiasm for consumption is slightly higher than expected, and the turnover of restaurants in most stores has recovered to 3%. After the restaurant's turnover recovered, the share of take-away food declined. Overall, the turnover recovered by about 45%. He predicted that the most optimistic thing is that the catering in Shenzhen will not return to normal until May, and the business model of Caspian Records, which integrates catering and take-out, will not return to normal turnover in previous years until June.

Chengdu: Maybe 4% of catering enterprises will not survive.

At present, Chengdu is also restricting the resumption of catering. It is understood that in "low-risk" areas, many hot pot restaurants have begun to resume dining, but the conditions of "only 5% of the seats in the lobby are open, and hot pot restaurants take consumers to eat at different tables" must be met.

Some hot pot restaurants have posted tips such as "Sit across tables, limit reception, encourage self-help and support take-away", and many restaurants have set the standard of dining for less than four people at a table. At the same time, the requirements for customers are strict, and there are few large-scale dinners or family dinners.

Chengdu announced that a restaurant in Dalong, Chengdu resumed eating in the lobby.

However, Qiu, a catering expert in Chengdu, told reporters that only 1% of restaurants in Chengdu have resumed eating, and the attendance rate of hot pot restaurants will be relatively better. However, in the end, the resumption of meals was still at a loss. He believes that consumers' confidence in consumption is insufficient now. Once a store is opened, the costs of rent, water and electricity, labor and other aspects will be huge.

At the same time, due to the high cost of epidemic prevention and disinfection equipment, even if canteens are restored and take-out is made, most catering enterprises still cannot make ends meet. He went on to say that according to the current epidemic prevention and control situation, Chengdu catering may not return to normal until July, because it will take consumers nearly a month to restore their consumption confidence and change their consumption habits, and their consumption level will decline. Next, 4% of catering enterprises may face the problem of closing stores.