How is the hotel market now? Can you make money by joining a hotel?

As a strong cycle industry in the field of consumption, hotels have always given the impression of "high prosperity and high growth" in the market in recent years. The medium-term logic of hotel industry growth has not been broken, and the current growth cycle has not ended, which can last for at least two years. The core logic of the hotel industry's medium-term growth is the promotion of chain rate and consumption upgrade, that is, joining stores and upgrading products.

According to the statistical data of "Analysis Report on Development Prospects and Investment Strategic Planning of Hotel Industry" issued by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, from the perspective of development trend, the market prosperity index of hotel industry fell to the bottom at -32 in July of 20 13, and then slowly oscillated and rebounded, but the overall trend was improving, and it remained optimistic for three consecutive years and stabilized at the same time. By April of 20 17, the market prosperity index of the hotel industry reached 23, and the prosperity index in the first half of 20 18 reached 32, which increased by 9 index points compared with the same period of last year, indicating that hotel operators continue to hold a more positive attitude towards the development trend of the hotel market this year. From this point of view, despite the overall slowdown of national economic growth in recent years, the hotel market has gradually strengthened its confidence in improving its operating performance through the adjustment of customer structure and the implementation of revenue management strategies.

The change of the number of franchise stores mainly comes from the change of brands and the increase of new properties. Judging from the existing store opening plan, new properties do not account for the bulk, and the medium-term supply is limited. Therefore, the increase in the number of franchise stores driven by brand power will be the biggest increment, which not only determines the current profit (initial franchise fee), but also determines the long-term profit (continuous franchise fee). For small and medium-sized hotel enterprises, the industry leader with high brand awareness and reputation has lower customer acquisition cost and procurement cost, which is more attractive to franchisees.

At present, the demand for business travel remains stable, and the main driving force for the price increase in the industry is product upgrading. From the current observation, there is still a gap between the supply and demand of mid-range products, and the average room income (RevPAR) of some hotel leaders has maintained a single-digit growth. Upgrading the superimposed economic stock will be the inevitable trend of the hotel industry.

In short, the medium-term logic of hotel industry growth has not been broken, and the probability of short-term data improvement is greater. Combined with the current low valuation, the current hotel industry has good configuration value.