What is the overall economic situation and distribution of India?

In 2007, due to the appreciation of the rupee and rising prices, India's economic growth slowed down, with GDP increasing by 9. 1%, 9.3%, 8.9% and 8.4% respectively in the four quarters. It is estimated that the economy will increase by 8.9% in 2007-08 (2007.4.1-2008.3.31), and the growth rate will drop by 0.7 percentage points over the previous year. Main features of economic operation: 1. Investment and consumption are the main forces of economic growth. India's economic growth is mainly driven by domestic demand, and investment and consumption account for more than 90% of GDP. From April to June 2007, the production index of consumer goods increased by 5.8% year-on-year, of which non-durable consumer goods increased by 8.4%. Investment maintained rapid growth. From April to February, the production index of investment products increased by 20.2% year-on-year. 2. The tertiary industry has developed rapidly. In 2007, the growth rates of India's tertiary industry and major industries both exceeded 10%. In the second, third and fourth quarters, the added value of trade, hotel and communication industries increased by 1 1.9%, 1 1.4% and1.3% respectively. 3. The growth of industrial production slowed down. From April to February, 2007, the industrial production index increased by 9% year-on-year, down by 2.2 percentage points over the same period of last year, of which the growth rate dropped by 5.8 percentage points in June, 438+February. The manufacturing industry declined more, by 2.6 and 6. 1 percentage point respectively. The production growth rate of wood and wooden furniture, basic metals, mechanical equipment and chemicals is still high. 4. The price increase dropped at a high level. In 2007, Indian prices showed a downward trend at a high level. The wholesale price index rose by 6.4%, 5.3%, 4. 1% and 3.4% respectively in four quarters, among which it rose by 6.6% in March and 3. 1% in June, which were the highest and lowest levels in recent years respectively. At present, the price increase is on the rise. This year, 1 1, 12 and 1 increased by 3.3%, 3.8% and 3.9% respectively. Two. At present, there are two different views on the economic development trend of India in 2008. First, foreign media believe that the Indian economy will not be "decoupled" from the American economy, and will also be impacted by the economic recession in Europe and America. OECD and UBS recently indicated that India's economic growth will slow down in 2008. Citigroup pointed out in "Asia Economic Outlook 2008" that India has more than 65,438+00% economic growth potential, but unreasonable economic structure and lack of professionals have formed long-term obstacles to economic growth. If the global economy deteriorates, the Indian economy will face risks in the short term. Second, India's domestic economic circles generally believe that the slowdown in world economic growth has no impact on India, and the economy can still maintain a high growth rate of 9%. Finance Minister chidambaram said that when the global economic environment is full of uncertainties, the Indian government will adjust its economic policies in time to maintain a balance between economic growth and inflation, and the government is confident that the economic growth will be close to 9%. Motek, vice chairman of the Planning Commission of India, said that the Indian economy will grow by 9% in fiscal year 2008-09 and last for five years. Professor of Economics at Nehru University believes that India's stock market is expected to continue to rise in 2008, because both at home and abroad are optimistic about India's economic prospects. Indian financial media also generally believe that although India's economic growth momentum has weakened in 2007, it is still one of the fastest growing countries in the world, and it is more sustainable and stable. In order to achieve the economic development goal in 2008-09, the Indian government has determined the priorities of developing agriculture and manufacturing, encouraging the introduction of foreign capital, strengthening infrastructure construction and improving financial services. (1) Strengthen rural construction, focus on developing rural infrastructure, support agricultural development, increase farmers' income, and make agriculture an important engine for stimulating the economy. The latest budget of the new fiscal year promises to forgive about 500 billion rupees (about 654.38+0.28 billion US dollars) of debts owed by farmers to state-owned financial institutions, and the government will also provide 654.38+0.00 billion rupees (about 2.6 billion US dollars) of special funds to help farmers repay their mortgage loans. Two preferential measures will benefit 4 million farmers. In addition, more than 30 preferential measures have been put forward, including building hydropower and irrigation channels, subsidizing the purchase of fertilizers and seeds, and building rural medical and educational facilities. (2) Vigorously remove obstacles to the introduction of foreign capital and guide foreign capital to invest in areas that can create more employment opportunities. Recently, the government announced an adjusted foreign investment policy to encourage foreign investment to enter industries with weak technology, such as allowing 65,438+000% foreign investment to enter titanium ore mining and aircraft maintenance enterprises, increasing the quota of foreign investment in freight and charter flights from 49% to 74% (the proportion of foreign investment in civil aviation is still 49%), increasing the proportion of foreign investment in state-owned oil and natural gas refining enterprises from 26% to 49%, and allowing foreign investment in financial sectors. However, the policies of foreign retail giants such as Wal-Mart and Carrefour to enter India have not been relaxed. In addition, it is necessary to strengthen infrastructure, energy construction and financial services; Vigorously develop manufacturing industry, strive to become a manufacturing power, and solve the increasingly serious employment problem. At present, India's economy should pay attention to several hot issues: (1) foreign capital supervision. In recent years, foreign capital has rapidly entered India. In fiscal year 2006-2007, the total amount of foreign direct investment reached US$ 6,543,806 billion, and it is expected to reach US$ 26 billion in fiscal year 2007-2008. In the 2008-09 fiscal year, the government hopes to exceed $30 billion. At present, India has replaced the United States as the second most popular destination for foreign direct investment in the world, second only to China. In addition, there are a lot of speculative capital inflows. The entry of foreign capital has greatly developed some real economies in India, and the automobile industry has become the fifth largest commercial automobile producer in the world and the fourth largest automobile market in Asia. In 2007, GM's car production in India increased by 68% over the previous year. In 2008, the company plans to build a second factory in India. It is estimated that the sales volume will increase by 10% on the existing basis in 20 10. In 2007, the global sales of Mercedes-Benz cars increased by 22% over the previous year. Daimler decided to invest $67 million to build a factory in India and produce 5,000 Mercedes-Benz cars every year. In addition, Ford plans to invest 500 million US dollars, and manufacturers such as Fiat and Suzuki also have investment intentions. The continuous influx of foreign capital has also brought many problems to India, such as rupee appreciation and stock market risk. In 2007, the Indian stock market was extremely hot, and the stock index hit record highs. On March 5th, the Sensitive 30 Index of Mumbai, India closed at 124 15.04, the lowest in the whole year, and reached the highest point of 20375.87 on June 5438+02, up 64. 1%. On May 29th, the market value exceeded 1 trillion dollars, becoming the third emerging market with a market value exceeding 1 trillion dollars after China and Russia. In the second half of the year, affected by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the stock market experienced four major fluctuations, namely, the cumulative decline 10.2% from July 25th to August 23rd, the decline of 7.5% on June17-22nd, and the decline on June16,5438+0-22nd. While the stock market soared, the exchange rate also rose sharply. On June 65438+1October 1 1, the exchange rate of Indian Rupee against the US dollar reached 39.27: 1, the highest level since February 1998. Compared with the beginning of the year, the accumulated appreciation of the rupee exceeded 12%. In order to stabilize the stock market, the government tried to take measures to curb the inflow of hot money, but it triggered a more violent oscillation in the stock market. 10 June 17, after the US Securities and Exchange Commission put forward a proposal to prohibit foreign institutional investors from buying derivatives involving certificates, the sensitive 30 index plummeted by 9.2%, the biggest one-day drop in history, and foreign capital withdrew about/kloc-0.7 billion US dollars, forcing the stock market to suspend trading for one hour. On that day, the exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar hit the biggest drop in two months, reaching 39.96: 1, and the Indian finance minister had to come forward urgently to appease the market sentiment. Although the policy has not yet been promulgated, India has recently indicated that it will steadily open its domestic capital market to the outside world, and at the same time strengthen and improve financial supervision to prevent the impact and financial risks of short-term cross-border capital flows. (II) Inflation Due to the slowdown of economic growth in the United States, many economists believe that the Bank of India may announce a rate cut of 65,438 at the interest rate meeting on June 29th this year. However, the central bank believes that the current threat of inflationary pressure is greater than the slowdown in economic growth, so it continues to maintain the benchmark repo rate at a high level of 7.75%. At present, the upward pressure of inflation mainly comes from the rise of food and energy prices. Because many people in India live below the poverty line, the rise in food prices has seriously affected their basic lives. Although the government's price subsidies for fuel and other commodities (the retail price of fuel has not increased since June 2006) have played an obvious role in curbing inflation, the pressure of rising prices cannot be ignored. As of the week of 65438+1October 26th, the wholesale price index rose by 4. 1 1%. Due to financial pressure, the government may reduce fuel subsidies in the future, and the price increase in 2008 may expand. (3) High interest rates and high interest rates are unfavorable factors for India's accelerated economic growth. During the period of rapid economic development, in order to curb inflation, the Bank of India began to raise interest rates for nine consecutive times from June 5438 to 10, 2004, which kept the loan interest rate at a high level and restrained consumers' willingness to spend. The sales volume of India's second largest motorcycle company has been declining for 12 months in a row, and it has dropped by16% in this year's 65438+ 10; Consumers who buy cars and washing machines have decreased, and some people have postponed their plans to buy houses. The phenomenon of slowing loan growth has emerged. As of this year 1 12 months, the amount of loans in India increased by 22.6%, and the growth rate decreased by 7.2 percentage points year-on-year. At the beginning of this year, the Indian Finance Minister called on the Bank of India to cut interest rates and change the slow growth of loans and investment. On February 1 1, Indian state-owned banks lowered the prime loan interest rate by 25 basis points to 12.5%, and many banks such as India Housing Development Finance Corporation and India Mortgage Corporation also lowered the loan interest rate, which will help promote the expansion of consumption and investment.