When will the catering industry return to normal in 2020?

2020 is destined to be extraordinary. Tourism and catering industry have always been closely related. Both industries need huge crowds of people and physical consumers, but now the epidemic situation is still very serious in the world. Therefore, many practitioners in the tourism and catering industry hope to recover soon. When will it return to normal?

Now more than half of the restaurants in the country have resumed work, but people are waiting one after another, which is expected to last for one year. After one year, the catering industry is likely to fully restore its former glory. After all, people's psychological level is still very sensitive, and there is a process of accepting accommodation.

From Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou to Shenzhen and Chengdu, all the diners are hungry. In the long run, great changes will definitely take place in the catering industry. Now, eating out is not only a kind of enjoyment, but also a just act.

A few days ago, according to the big data statistics of a take-away platform, the return to work rate of catering merchants nationwide has exceeded 55%. With the arrival of the tide of returning to work, the demand for meals has increased, and catering enterprises are also resuming business.

However, the reporter learned from many sources that many restaurants and restaurants that have opened their doors in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu are generally embarrassed by the lack of doors.

It is predicted that in the near future, a restaurant "bankruptcy tide" sweeping across the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen may be coming soon.

Beijing: The worst may not get better until next year.

On March 5th, 2020, Beijing held a press conference on COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control 4 1, which put forward stricter epidemic prevention requirements for small restaurants to resume work one after another. According to the reporter, at present, the food in Beijing's canteens is gradually picking up. Time-honored restaurants such as Quanjude, Tongheju, HSBC Jiaozilou, Hongbinlou, Barbecue Bay, Barbecue Season, Emei Restaurant, Liuquanju and Casserole House are also restricting the resumption of canteen food, but it is still difficult to resume.

Restaurants on Guijie Street in Beijing, photo source: Beijing News.

Chang Xiaojun, a Beijing catering expert, told reporters that the control in Beijing is quite strict at present. Most of the canteens are state-owned brands, and some old brands and fast food restaurants mainly sell them to the outside world. At the same time, even if restaurants are open, consumers are afraid to go home for consumption, which leads to many catering enterprises still afraid to resume business.

He believes that with the further control of the epidemic, mid-April is the "turning point" for the reopening of restaurants in Beijing, because the date of isolation of people returning to Beijing at the end of March has ended, and the manpower of catering enterprises has been guaranteed. Optimistic, it is possible that most catering enterprises will be able to resume eating in early May. However, to restore consumer confidence, we need to wait until the epidemic is completely controlled.

Hu Hotel, Guijie, Beijing, Photo source: Beijing News.

Zhang Handong, a catering investor in Beijing Jinyuan Hotel, said that at present, only about 10% restaurants in Beijing have resumed eating, mostly state-owned and chain fast food restaurants. However, these stores that have resumed dining are not optimistic, because they have to follow strict catering service guidelines, and public consumption confidence has not yet recovered. At the same time, due to the postponement and cancellation of a large number of meetings and wedding banquets, it has caused a great blow to hotels, restaurants and other large-scale catering. He believes that according to the current epidemic control situation, the catering business may improve in July and August, but it can only be achieved in September and June when the demand for catering is high. If normal operation can be resumed at the end of the year, it is already quite a good result. In the worst case, it may not turn around until next year.

He went on to say that a number of large single-store restaurants in Beijing, especially Cantonese restaurants, may be the first to close down, because Cantonese restaurants often have higher costs in terms of ingredients, manpower and rent, and chain catering enterprises can survive for a while, but the overall situation is not optimistic.

In the future, Beijing catering enterprises may have a trend of transformation to food processing.

Shanghai: Many famous restaurants closed down.

Recently, Shanghai Catering and Cooking Industry Association pointed out in its "Guidelines for the Resumption of Production and Sales of Catering Services in Shanghai" (second edition) that at present, the resumption rate of catering services in Shanghai has reached 62.6%. Among the member enterprises of Shanghai Catering and Cooking Industry Association, the return rate of dinner enterprises is about 50%, the return rate of mass breakfast enterprises is 80%, and the return rate of Chinese fast food and western fast food is 90%.

However, according to online rumors, many famous restaurants, such as Barules, Blackstone, Stone Brewing, Hemin izakaya, Inkood, ZenTsuki Catering and Cooking, PokeLab, Moreton Seafood Steakhouse, Yuan Shizu Instant Mutton, etc. , has been declared closed. Not only that, some small restaurants on the street also posted transfer notices. Some catering experts believe that this wave of closing stores may continue to spread.

Mr. Liang, the owner of a Cantonese restaurant in Shanghai, told the reporter that the resumption of production of catering services in Shanghai and the market guidelines are relatively loose, but once the business is resumed, the costs of water, electricity, ingredients and labor will still be paid and distributed normally, and people are afraid to go out for consumption during this time. There will be no large-scale dinner in the short term. Compared with other industries, the recovery time of catering industry is longer.

He believes that at present, Shanghai residents are more keen on take-out than eating in the canteen. A steamed stuffed bun shop he is familiar with can deliver more than 300 steamed stuffed buns every day, exceeding the take-away turnover before opening the canteen. However, some large restaurants, such as bars, western restaurants, restaurants and so on. If it is difficult to take out food, it will be difficult to survive because of high rent and high cost of resuming business, and then there will be a tide of closing stores, and the catering industry in Shanghai may usher in a major reshuffle.

He continued, optimistically speaking, the May 1 Golden Week was a turning point in Shanghai's comprehensive recovery of catering. Because the Golden Week holiday has been confirmed and the epidemic has been controlled, restaurants that can survive will usher in a wave of consumption rebound.

Guangzhou: It is expected to return to normal level ahead of schedule.

As early as February 2 1, all districts in Guangzhou have resumed eating, but except some restaurants with tea markets, the turnover of many restaurants that resumed eating is still less than 30%.

The reporter found that in places where citizens and tourists are "foraging", such as Jiazheng Square, Tian Huan Square, taikoo hui and Huifu Road Food Street, the attendance rate of many restaurants is less than 30%, and even some stores are still closed. Guangzhou catering people generally face the problem of "it is difficult to open, but it is also difficult to open".

Mr. Huang, the founder of a well-known Cantonese restaurant brand, believes that Guangzhou restaurants will improve slightly in March, but they are still not optimistic. Most importantly, it takes time to restore consumer confidence. First of all, the number of people with epidemic growth in the country should be zero, second, masks should be taken nationwide, and finally, primary schools should be opened. Only in this way can the confidence of consumers in Guangzhou be fully restored, and it is optimistic that it will return to normal level at least after May.

Mr. Chen, a catering expert, said that in the next two months, the catering industry in Guangzhou will usher in a "wave of closure". However, there may not be many restaurants directly affected by the epidemic, but the following pressures, such as the break of capital chain, the decline of market consumption power, the reduction of profits, and even the adjustment and increase of rents, may lead to the closure of some small restaurants without brand influence and some large brands that are difficult to transform. Online celebrity shops that emphasize marketing over products, play with concepts and speculate on fashion may be the first batch to be eliminated.

Miss Cai, who runs Sichuan cuisine in Guangzhou, told the reporter that although the restaurant is open, the 400-square-meter storefront can only accommodate 12 people according to regulations. Now the daily turnover is only about 3000 yuan, but it still costs 4000 yuan for labor, water and electricity, rent and so on. If this continues, there will be no money to pay the rent next month and we will close down.

However, according to the latest news from official website, Guangzhou Health and Health Commission this afternoon, except Yuexiu District, all other 10 districts in Guangzhou are low-risk areas. According to the division of "Guidelines for Promoting the Orderly Resumption of Catering Industry in Guangzhou (Trial)", catering services can be provided normally in low-risk areas after strict health and epidemic prevention measures are taken. Mr. Chen, a catering expert, believes that this has undoubtedly greatly increased the confidence of catering people in Guangzhou and is expected to return to normal business level ahead of schedule.

Shenzhen: Normal trading volume in previous years will only resume in June.

On February 28, Shenzhen began to resume dining in limited quantities, but some Shenzhen catering people said that it was not as good as their counterparts in Guangzhou.

According to the reporter's understanding, Shenzhen's guiding opinions on restricting the development of catering and private room (box) services for various catering business units (stores) in areas with medium risk prevention and control levels include:

Diners must take their temperature before entering; Ask customers to wear masks; The actual number of people dining at the lobby table shall not exceed 50% of the usual number; The meal interval of each table and each batch of customers shall not be less than 10 minute; Customers sit at a distance of not less than 1 m, and fast food restaurants implement one person and one table; If the private room (box) is small, only one table is opened, and it is not allowed to spell tables.

The situation of a shopping plaza restaurant in Shenzhen after the resumption of dining comes from Shenzhen News Network.

Mr. Deng, who runs a seafood restaurant in Shenzhen, said that his store has not resumed work at present because the consumption of seafood products is relatively high and the cost of take-out is relatively high. If he returns to work, all expenses will suffer even greater losses.

He believes that it will not be resumed until the food and beverage prevention and control measures are properly relaxed. According to him, at present, it is difficult for most catering enterprises in Shenzhen to return to their previous turnover of 30%. If this continues, some small restaurants directly affected by the epidemic may close down first, and some catering enterprises with follow-up problems due to the resumption of work may also close down before the end of the epidemic.

Lin, chairman of Bahlihaiji, told reporters that Bahlihaiji started to return to work at the end of February, and at present, 45 stores have opened as required.

At present, consumers' enthusiasm for consumption has slightly exceeded expectations, and the turnover of canteen meals in most stores has recovered to 30% in the past. However, after the resumption of canteen food, the share of take-away food has declined, and the overall turnover has returned to about 45% in the past.

. He predicted that the most optimistic is May, when the catering in Shenzhen will return to normal, and it will take June to restore the normal turnover in previous years.

Chengdu: There may be 40% catering enterprises that can't survive.

At present, Chengdu is also restricting the resumption of catering. It is understood that in "low-risk" areas, many hot pot restaurants have begun to resume eating, but they must meet the conditions of "only opening 50% of the original seats in the hall, and hot pot restaurants take consumers to eat at different tables".

Some hot pot restaurants also post tips such as "Sit at the next table, limit reception, encourage self-promotion, support take-out" at the door, while many restaurants have also set a standard for dining for less than four people, which is also strict with customers, and there are few large-scale dinners or family dinners.

Chengdu Dalong No.1 Store resumed dining, which was released from Chengdu.

However, Qiu, a catering expert in Chengdu, told reporters that at present, only 10% restaurants in Chengdu have resumed eating, and the attendance rate of hot pot restaurants will be relatively better, but it is still a loss to resume eating at full capacity. He believes that consumers' consumption confidence is insufficient now. Once the store is opened, the costs of rent, water and electricity, labor and other aspects are huge.

At the same time, because the cost of epidemic prevention and disinfection equipment is also quite high, even if the internal food is restored, even if the food is taken out, most catering enterprises still cannot make ends meet. He went on to say that according to the current epidemic prevention and control situation, Chengdu restaurants may not return to normal until July, because it will take nearly a month for consumers to restore their consumption confidence and change their consumption habits, and their consumption level will decline. Next, 40% of catering enterprises may face the problem of closing stores.