What is the development trend of the world’s Internet?

The development of the Internet presents ten major development trends:

Trend 1: The penetration rate of Internet users in China will exceed half, and the number of Internet users in China ranks first in the world

As of June 2014, the number of Internet users in my country reached 632 million, and the Internet penetration rate was 46.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the end of 2013. In the first half of 2014, as the replacement of feature phones by smart phones has been basically completed, smart phone users have formed a large scale, the market share has become saturated, and the growth rate has slowed down. The driving effect of smart phones on the growth of Internet users' penetration rate weaken. It is estimated that by the end of 2015, the penetration rate of Chinese Internet users will be close to 50%. In 2013, the number of global Internet users was 2.6 billion, and the growth rate in 2013 compared with 2012 was 9%. However, despite this, China's number of Internet users ranked first in the world. In 2013, the number of Internet users in China was 2.9 times that of the second-ranked United States. However, the penetration rate of Internet users in China was 46%, compared with 83% in the United States. From the perspective of penetration rate, the number of Internet users in China still has a lot of room for development.

Trend 2: The Internet migrates to mobile terminals, and mobile Internet dominates the world

Global mobile Internet usage continues to grow, accounting for 25% of the entire Internet (as of May 2014) , last year this figure was only 14%, and the usage ratio doubled within a year. The penetration rate of Asian mobile Internet users also increased from 23% last year to 37%, which is a very fast growth rate. As of June 2014, the number of China Mobile Internet users reached 527 million, an increase of 26.99 million from the end of 2013. The penetration rate of China Mobile Internet users (the proportion of Internet users in China's population) reached 39.1%, that is, nearly 40% of Chinese people use mobile phones to access the Internet. At the same time, the proportion of Internet users who use mobile phones to access the Internet has further increased, from 81.0% in December 2013 to 83.4% in June 2014. For the first time, the scale of mobile Internet users has exceeded the scale of traditional PC Internet users.

Internet products and services must also follow the lead of netizens. In 2012 and 2013, the mobile traffic of many large Internet companies has exceeded the PC traffic. Many large Internet companies' PC business users have migrated to mobile, showing a trend of PC business growth slowing down and mobile business growing rapidly. If an Internet company does not have a competitive product on the mobile side, it will soon be subverted by the wave of mobile Internet. In the next two to three years, mobile Internet will dominate the world.

Trend 3: The global traditional media is in serious decline. China’s online advertising revenue has surpassed TV advertising, which has become an irreversible trend.

In China’s mainstream media, the revenue market share of TV advertising and newspaper advertising There has been an obvious downward trend since 2009. In 2011, online advertising revenue surpassed newspaper revenue. In 2013, online advertising revenue surpassed TV advertising revenue. Online media became the largest advertising revenue media. In 2014, the Internet Advertising's revenue share will continue to grow, while TV's revenue share will continue to decline, and online advertising's revenue share will continue to significantly lead the market.

In the United States, although the Internet advertising market share has not yet surpassed that of television, the gap is gradually narrowing. In particular, the media consumption time on the Internet has significantly exceeded the media consumption time on TV, which will promote the growth of the US Internet advertising market. has further prospered, while print media and radio in the U.S. market are severely shrinking in terms of media consumption time and advertising market share.

Trend 4: Online advertising will be the world of performance advertising, and precise advertising based on big data will become an important driving force for the development of online advertising

In 2013, CPC and CPA were used as the billing methods. of performance advertising, its market share reached 66.6%, and in 2014 this proportion will exceed 70%. In China's online advertising market, where performance-based advertising is the mainstream, precision advertising technology will become an important driving force in the online advertising market. We have seen that new precision advertising forces based on big data, such as 360 Company's Dianjing System and Tencent's Guangdiantong, are rapidly rising, and their market position is already comparable to that of traditional portals. Games and e-commerce are the main customer groups of these precision advertising systems. With the further development of these customer groups and the further development of precision advertising systems in big data, we have reason to believe that these precision advertising forces driven by big data will It will become the most important driving force for change and development in the online advertising market.

Trend 5: The Internet consumer finance market is rising, and large-scale platform Internet companies will drive the rapid development of the market

Internet consumer finance refers to the modern era in which consumers purchase consumer goods through the Internet and provide consumer loans. Serving financial methods, including housing loans, car loans, travel loans, student loans, etc. China's Internet consumer finance market is in the initial stage of development. In 2013, the transaction size of China's Internet consumer finance market reached 6.0 billion yuan. From the perspective of the scale composition of Internet consumer finance transactions, the scale of Internet consumer finance transactions in 2013 was mainly P2P consumer credit. According to iResearch data, the proportion was as high as 97.5%. In 2014, the e-commerce giant entered this field for the first time. In early 2014, JD.com took the lead in launching the Baitiao service. Later, in July, Tmall launched the installment service. In 2014, the strong entry of e-commerce giants caused significant changes in the market structure. In 2014, consumer credit transactions generated through e-commerce platforms accounted for 32% of the scale of Internet financial transactions. It is expected that this proportion will increase to more than 40% in 2015. In 2016 More than half of the consumer financial transactions generated through e-commerce platforms will become market entities. With JD.com and Tmall entering the market, the transaction size will exceed 16 billion yuan in 2014, with a growth rate of over 170%. In 2017, the overall market will exceed 100 billion, with a compound growth rate of 94% in the next three years. The driving force for market growth comes from the strong entry of e-commerce giants into the market and the entry of more platform-based Internet companies such as real estate websites and automobile websites into the market.

Trend 6: The Internet is vigorously penetrating into the health field, setting off a wave of Internet health

More and more users are using the Internet to find health-related solutions, which has led to The rapid development of the mobile Internet health market. In the past three years, both global high-tech companies such as Apple, Google, and Microsoft, as well as domestic Internet giants such as BAT, have coveted the mobile health market, from mobile registration to daily health management services, from health monitoring to chronic disease prevention and Chronic disease management and Internet health are taking off.

The future development of the Internet health market is mainly driven by three forces:

(1) Favorable national policies

In May 2014, the State Food and Drug Administration issued the " Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Internet Food and Drug Operations (Draft for Comments)", which plans to liberalize online sales of prescription drugs and proposes to allow third-party logistics to distribute drugs.

The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Pharmaceutical Industry" points out that the current concentration of the pharmaceutical industry is low, and the problems of many, small and scattered enterprises are prominent, resulting in excessive competition, waste of resources and environmental pollution. It set the industrial concentration target for 2015 as the sales revenue of the top 100 companies accounting for more than 50% of the entire industry.

(2) Promoted by technology-related factors

The development of mobile Internet and big data will change the existing medical and health service model - remote appointment, telemedicine, chronic disease monitoring, Big data management and so on are gradually becoming possible.

The development of sensors. Traditional wearable sensor wristbands, heart rate straps, pedometers, motion sensors, and smart clothing sensors are developing rapidly; the development of non-implantable electrochemical sensors uses the detection of body fluids such as tears, saliva, sweat, and skin tissue fluids. Sensor detection fills the gap in real-time monitoring of diseases and drug effects in the body.

(3) Changes in social environment and natural environment

Aging. In 2050, the population aged 60 and above will increase to nearly 440 million, accounting for 34% of China's total population, entering a stage of deep aging. China's growing aging population underpins healthcare growth;

Pollution. Climate change and pollution aggravate human health risks and provide space for the growth of the health industry. Relevant data show that about 2 million people die from air pollution every year around the world. The consequences of water and air pollution will become increasingly apparent in the next 10 years. On the one hand, pollution will make people pay more attention to disease prevention and treatment and increase medical and health expenditures; on the other hand, people's investment in the treatment of diseases caused by pollution will also increase.

(4) Large Internet and IT companies attach great importance to and vigorously participate in the promotion

Alibaba’s layout covers almost all aspects of the medical industry from hospitals to pharmacies, from registration to payment.

Ten months after Alibaba invested in pharmaceutical e-commerce CITIC 21st Century Technology Co., Ltd., the latter officially changed its name to "Alibaba Health"; Alipay announced the "Future Hospital" plan and announced that it would open its platform capabilities to medical institutions; Alibaba launched pharmaceutical e-commerce Platform, "Alibaba Health" client intervened in the electronic prescription process of hospitals for the first time in Shijiazhuang, and passed the "electronic prescription" pilot in order to realize the purchase of prescription drugs outside the hospital. Prescription drugs account for 80% of domestic pharmaceutical terminal sales revenue, and this market has huge potential.

Tencent invested US$70 million in strategic investment in the medical and health Internet company Dingxiangyuan; Tencent led the investment in registration network with more than US$100 million; the latest version of mobile QQ launched a health center, hoping to use social user data based on mobile QQ, To integrate software and hardware manufacturers in the industry chain; to create a WeDoctor platform that is connected to WeChat and QQ, so that hospital doctors can provide convenient medical services to Guohao.com, WeChat and QQ users.

Baidu cooperates with the Beijing Municipal Government to build a health cloud platform that integrates upstream smart medical equipment vendors and downstream telemedicine service providers to provide personalized health services based on smart hardware devices.

Xiaomi invested US$25 million in a strategic stake in iHealth, a subsidiary of Jiuan Medical; Apple released a new health application. The mobile application platform is named "Healthkit", which can integrate information collected by other health applications on iPhone or iPad. Data, such as blood pressure and weight; Samsung also launched its health tracking platform SAMI; Google launched Google Fit; Microsoft launched the Microsoft Health health and fitness cloud service platform.

Trend 7: The turning point of online education has arrived, and the market will grow rapidly in the future

China Economic Net data shows that in the first half of 2014, the total domestic online education investment reached 2.5 billion yuan, and foreign online education investment The total amount is 2.4 billion yuan. At the same time, the investment in August is no less than 1 billion yuan and the investment in October is 500 million yuan. It is estimated that the domestic online education investment in 2014 will be as high as about 5 billion to 8 billion yuan. The total global online education investment is estimated Tens of billions.

According to data from iResearch, the online education market size will reach 99.8 billion in 2014, with a growth rate of 19%. The market is still growing at a relatively fast rate. In 2015, the turning point of market growth is coming. In the next three years, 2015, 2016 and 2017 will continue to grow rapidly, with growth rates all around 20%. Academic education and vocational online education are the main driving forces for the rapid growth of market scale. But it is worthy of our attention that the primary and secondary online education market will grow faster than the entire online education market. The growth rate of the primary and secondary online education market in 2014 was 34%. In the next three years, it will grow in 2015, 2016 and 2017. The rates were 35%, 39% and 39% respectively, showing a trend of rapid growth.

The current changes in the education field mainly come from the mobile Internet and big data. The vast majority of original Internet education relied on PCs. The Internet era has completely entered the era of mobile Internet. With tablets and smartphones, online education has transformed from relatively concentrated learning to fragmented learning. This requires online education products. Changes in form; and the development of big data has also made online education more intelligent and scientific. For example, we can use big data to build an error question bank to optimize the focus of teachers' lectures, or use big data to assist students in answering questions, scientifically evaluate learning performance, and optimize Learning focus, such as Ape Question Bank, Xuexibao and Youda.

Trend 8: Competition in the online travel market is becoming more intense, and changes are brewing in the market

In 2014, the transaction size of China’s online travel booking market will reach 287.2 billion. Affected by the ongoing and large-scale price war in the industry, the revenue growth rate of the online travel OTA market in 2013 and 2014 was lower than that of the overall online travel market.

Looking forward to 2015, the following trends will continue:

(1) Price war, companies increase revenue but do not increase profits. The third-quarter financial reports of four Chinese OTA companies listed in the United States show that the company's net profits are still declining at an accelerated pace, but the price war between the parties is becoming more and more fierce. Ctrip’s net operating income in the third quarter was 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%, but net profit was 217 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42%.

This is Ctrip’s third consecutive quarter of negative net profit growth; Qunar’s total revenue in the third quarter of 2014 was 501.1 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.8%; however, the net loss attributable to shareholders expanded to 566.2 million yuan. However, Ctrip still announced in December 2014 that it would spend 1 billion for large-scale promotions. Tongcheng and Tuniu also publicly challenged each other.

(2) The online air ticket market is more concentrated. The price war in the online ticket booking market continues. The pressure on small and medium-sized online agents is gradually increasing, profit margins are decreasing, and the OTA distribution structure will gradually become concentrated.

(3) The status of direct-selling online hotels continues to improve. As the price war will continue, direct sales hotel websites will continue to rise. Judging from the current user scale of online hotel reservation websites, Qunar, Ctrip, and Elong are in the first camp. Direct sales website 7 Days Inn also entered and remained in the first camp in 2013; it is expected that there will be 1-1 more in 2015. 2The two direct-selling hotels entered the first camp in terms of user scale.

(4) The online vacation market is growing faster than the overall online travel market. In 2014, the growth rate of the online vacation market transaction scale reached 42%, which is much higher than the growth rate of the online travel market (27.5%). In 2015, it will continue to maintain rapid growth, with a growth rate of more than 35%. This is mainly due to the increasing demand for vacation and leisure travel, which has driven the growth of car rental, vacation apartment and other businesses.

(5) Online tickets have received a lot of attention from online travel companies, and competition has become more intense. 2014 was the first year of the development of online tickets, and 2015 has entered a stage of fierce competition. As the entrance to leisure tourism, the ticket market makes it easier to cross-sell vacation products, so seizing the ticket market will help develop the vacation market.

(6) The popularity of outbound tourism is gradually increasing. As the income of users who book travel increases and their quality of life improves, users' demand for outbound travel becomes stronger. It is expected that in the next few years, the popularity of online booking for outbound travel will continue to increase, and the share will further expand; at the same time, more Internet companies focusing on outbound travel will emerge.

(7) The migration and competition on the mobile side are becoming more intense. The mobile traffic of many large online booking companies has exceeded that of the PC. Online travel price wars and service wars have shifted from the PC to the mobile. Competition on the mobile side will become more intense in 2015. Online travel companies will continue to increase their mobile traffic. Magnitude promotions and cash back.

Trend 9: O2O in the real estate sector closes the loop and accelerates transformation to welcome development

In 2014, my country’s real estate market entered a period of adjustment. The inventory of commercial housing in various places is high, and market expectations have further changed. This has affected the overall pace of new construction starts, and the growth rate of real estate investment has declined significantly. The wait-and-see sentiment in the market is significant, and development companies have adjusted their investment and launch pace. Since 2014, the overall market transaction volume has been declining, and market transactions have dropped significantly compared with last year. Data from the China Index Academy shows that from January to November 2014, the average monthly transaction volume in the 50 representative cities was 22.73 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%, basically the same as the same period in 2012, and 10.6% higher than the same period in 2010 and 2011 respectively. ,24.5%. The above-mentioned impact on the real estate industry has been transmitted to real estate websites, resulting in a slowdown in revenue growth of real estate websites. Take the listed company Soufun.com as an example. Its revenue in 2014 is expected to be US$730 million, with an annual revenue growth rate of 15%, a significant decline from 48% in 2013. Against this background, real estate websites have proactively reformed, closed the sales loop, and accelerated transformation.

Directions worth paying attention to in the real estate field in the next year include real estate O2O, home O2O, community O20 and real estate-related Internet finance.

(1) Real estate O2O. Real estate websites actively seek to close the sales loop, not only to help with online promotion, but also to implement offline property sales links to achieve large-scale transactions. Soufun, Leju, Anjuke and 365 Real Estate Network have all implemented real estate O2O to varying degrees.

(2) Home O2O. There are several main models: real estate websites and home furnishing websites open offline physical store experience and online sales model; traditional home furnishing mall self-built e-commerce platform model; traditional home furnishing mall alliance, online group buying model of self-built alliance website; traditional home furnishing enterprises Sales model on e-commerce platforms.

(3) Community O2O. Community shopping and services ranging from vegetables, fruits, properties, housekeeping services, etc. are all within the scope of community O2O services.

Real estate developers represented by Vanke and Fantasia, e-commerce companies such as Alibaba, real estate websites such as SouFun and 365 Real Estate Network, and financial institutions such as China Minsheng Bank and Industrial Bank have entered this field to varying degrees.

(4) Internet finance. In order to better close the loop, many large real estate websites have entered the field of Internet finance, mainly targeting users' loan issues during the purchase and decoration process. In 2014, we saw a series of major moves by real estate websites in Internet finance: SouFun established Internet Financial Information Services Co., Ltd. and introduced a multi-party strategic cooperation model to lay out the Internet financial system. Sina and E-House China jointly established Fangjinsuo Financial Services Co., Ltd. and launched the Internet real estate financial service platform "Fangjinsuo". 365 Real Estate Network plans to establish a Financial Information Services Co., Ltd.

Trend 10: Social platforms will accelerate ecological integration and build a one-stop service platform for communication, entertainment, life, shopping and learning based on social networking

Among the three major categories of social applications , the highest overall netizen coverage is instant messaging, the second social networking site, and the last is Weibo. The coverage rate of instant messaging (IM) among all Internet users has reached 89%. What is worthy of our attention is that Tencent almost leads these three types of mainstream social application markets. In the field of instant messaging, the netizen penetration rates of Tencent's QQ and WeChat have reached 78% and 65% respectively. The netizen penetration rate of QQ Space has also reached 57%. The penetration rate of Tencent Weibo is 27%, which is only 1% lower than Sina Weibo. What deserves the most attention is WeChat. It only took four years after its launch to achieve a penetration rate of 65% of Internet users, and it has developed extremely fast.

In the next year, various social platforms will accelerate the integration of social-related ecology and build an online one-stop service platform for communication, entertainment, life, shopping and learning based on social networking.

(1) In terms of communication, Tencent has put forward the product concept of enjoying communication. QQ and WeChat will continue to improve the product experience of voice and video communication, especially QQ’s multi-person video communication to enhance the user experience. One-to-many and many-to-many communication experiences in work and education scenarios; Sina Weibo is also testing the group communication function, looking forward to grabbing more shares in social communication.

(2) In terms of entertainment, social platforms such as Tencent, Sina, and Renren are actively providing users with PC games and mobile game services, and are commercializing games on the basis of social users. In 2014 These social platforms have made good progress in mobile games in recent years, and it is expected that in the next two years, more attention will be paid to the direction of mobile games for social users.

(3) In terms of life, in early 2014, Tencent invested in Dianping, accounting for 20% of the shares, quickly seizing the entrance to life O2O; and earlier, Tencent invested in Didi Taxi. In the next year, social platforms will continue to accelerate integration in terms of daily life, and rapidly expand the market through investment or acquisition.

(4) In terms of shopping, in early 2014, Tencent invested US$214 million in JD.com for 15% of its shares. The cooperation was conducive to the rapid development of the two in the e-commerce field; and in 2013, Alibaba Alibaba purchased 18% of Sina Weibo's shares for US$586 million, and the two launched a comprehensive strategic cooperation. In the future, Alibaba will also have the right to increase its stake in Sina Weibo to 30% based on a pre-agreed pricing method. In the coming year, social platforms will continue to increase cooperation in the e-commerce field, especially promoting the integration of social and mobile e-commerce.

(5) In terms of learning, social platforms will take advantage of their natural communication capabilities and user resources to develop online education. Taking Tencent as an example, "Tencent Classroom" focuses on online education from two aspects: on the one hand, it uses QQ groups to provide live education for online classes, and on the other hand, it uses premium courses as a resource platform to provide recorded education. At the same time, Tencent and New Oriental announced the establishment of a joint venture company "Weixue Tomorrow" in July 2014 to enter the mobile learning market. In February 2014, YY also officially announced its entry into online education and spun off the independent brand 100 Education. It is expected that in 2015, social platforms will pay more attention to the development and investment of the education market, and competition will become increasingly fierce.