US interest rate hike time 2022

Zhitong Finance APP learned that the United States’ labor employment costs increased at a record high in the first quarter, exacerbating the market’s continued concerns about inflation and laying the foundation for the Federal Reserve to take more hawkish policy actions. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, U.S. labor employment costs increased by 1.4% in the first quarter, the largest increase since the beginning of 2000. The previous increase was 1.4% in the last few months of 2021. After the data was released, market expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 75 basis points in June increased.

It is reported that the continued healthy growth in labor employment costs highlights that rising wages are a key component of the inflation situation. If U.S. employment costs continue to rise, the Federal Reserve will continue to face pressure to adopt more aggressive policies. In this regard, Bloomberg economist Anna Wong said that if productivity growth does not accelerate and wage growth does not slow down, the Fed may need to raise interest rates by about 300 basis points more than the market is currently reflecting.

In March this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the current rate of wage growth is inconsistent with the Fed’s inflation target. It is reported that the potential inflation rate of the U.S. labor employment cost indicator is about 4.5. This number is far lower than the recently released overall CPI data. However, there are questions about the extent to which the Federal Reserve needs to tighten policy to bring the inflation rate back to the 2 target. On the issue, the information conveyed by the data is far from reassuring.

In addition, the wages of American workers still cannot keep up with the inflation level that has remained high for decades, which may cause family income to be squeezed and consumption may slow down.

However, according to another set of data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, the U.S. PCE price index rose by 6.6 year-on-year in March, the highest level since 1982. Inflation-adjusted spending has increased over the past three months, suggesting consumers have continued to shop despite rising prices.

Will rising labor employment costs maintain a high growth rate?

It is understood that the employment gap in the United States is close to an all-time high, which has prompted companies large and small to raise wages to attract and retain employees. . While rising labor costs have put pressure on profit margins at some companies, many have passed these costs on to consumers through higher prices. Still, wages are only part of the problem, with multiple factors driving up input costs for companies, including high raw material prices and supply chain challenges.

It is reported that a report from S&P Global on Friday (April 22) showed that this month’s express composite input price index jumped to 80.5 from 77.1 in March. Price measures are all growing strongly. The input price growth index jumped to a record high, reflecting rising raw material, fuel, transport and labor costs.

Looking ahead, a tight job market is likely to keep wages growing at a rapid pace. Labor shortages have eased, but the leisure and hospitality industry still faces 1.7 million job vacancies. At the same time, some companies have also mentioned the ongoing war for talent in recent earnings calls. For example, Discovery Financial (DFS.US) Chief Financial Officer John Greene said on Thursday that the company expects "to remain competitive as we take steps to remain competitive." , there will be some degree of wage pressure in 2022, and possibly even into 2023.”

However, the possibility of a recession is rising due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will take active measures to control inflation. The latest U.S. economic growth data was also lower than expected, and the U.S. economy is facing increasing headwinds. As a result, wage gains are likely to slow in the coming months.

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What should we do if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in March? Looking ahead to 2022, investors still feel that U.S. stocks should: Large technology stocks are under pressure. After March, the interest rate hike will be implemented. Okay.

When will the United States stop raising interest rates? Will it be next month? : If nothing else happens, it will be early next year.

The Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points. What impact will it have on the market? The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (: It is a clear positive for emerging markets. Then the stock markets of various countries will rebound, especially emerging industries led by technology stocks and growth stocks.

What will be the impact of interest rate cuts and interest rate increases in the United States?: An interest rate cut will cause the dollar to depreciate, and an interest rate increase will stimulate the dollar to rise. However, if the market believes that interest rate cuts are coming to an end or that there is limited room for future interest rate increases, the dollar may have the opposite trend

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The US dollar can still rise to 7 in 2022 ? -: In preparation for traveling abroad, the author purchased some U.S. dollars at the beginning of 2020. The lowest purchase price was 6.7 yuan, and the highest purchase price was 6.9 yuan. At the highest, the U.S. dollar reached 7.2 yuan against the RMB. And then Following the trend of the Federal Reserve's unlimited easing policy after the outbreak of the epidemic, and the epidemic almost destroying the real economy of the U.S. dollar...

The schedule of the Federal Reserve's previous interest rate hikes and their impact -: Time of interest rate hikes Table: In the early morning of March 17, 2016, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates unchanged as expected by the market, and reduced the number of interest rate hikes this year from the previous 4 to 2. The hidden downside risks to the global economy and the United States are still at a low level. The inflation rate has become the two major concerns for the Federal Reserve to postpone raising interest rates this time. Beijing time in 2016...

When will the United States raise interest rates? -: This year's interest rate hike will be in December

Beautiful this year

When will Congress raise interest rates -: Although it has been said that it is possible to raise interest rates in April, if this is really the intention, the interest rate meeting in mid-month will be announced. The April news should only be a test of the water, and we have to wait until June