Policies have been relaxed, travel consumption has stopped falling since May, and the summer holiday is expected to usher in the release of pent-up demand

Recently, the national epidemic situation has generally stabilized. Under scientific and precise prevention and control measures, many places have relaxed epidemic prevention policies for the movement of people across provinces, and inter-provincial group travel has gradually restarted.

Recently, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Hubei provinces have successively announced the resumption of inter-provincial travel, further opening up the national inter-provincial travel market; as of June 21, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hainan and other places have no longer relaxed their epidemic prevention policies against Shanghai. The 7+7 policy is implemented across the board. It is understood that the actual implementation in some other regions leaves room for improvement compared with the documented policy. According to Ctrip data, in the past week as of June 21, national summer inter-provincial travel product/hotel bookings have increased by 291%/151% week-on-week, and the average daily order volume during the summer in June has exceeded the same period last year.

After waiting and watching for nearly half a month, Hubei, Qinghai, and Ningxia provinces finally announced the resumption of inter-provincial tour group business for tourism companies before the summer vacation. With the return of Qinghai, Hubei, and Ningxia, the national inter-provincial travel market has been fully opened!

On June 21, the Hubei Department of Culture and Tourism issued a notice "Hubei Province fully resumes travel agencies and online travel companies operating cross-provincial group tours and "air tickets + hotel" business", which completely changed the entire Hubei tourism circle. Got excited. The notice clearly requires that from June 21, Hubei Province will fully resume travel agencies and online travel companies operating inter-provincial team travel and "air tickets + hotel" business. In addition to Hubei, Qinghai and Ningxia also officially announced on June 20 that they have resumed inter-provincial group travel business for tourism companies. At this point, the "battle for the restoration of official announcements of inter-provincial tourism" led by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and followed by more than 30 provinces and autonomous regions across the country has come to an end.

As the last provinces and regions to officially announce the resumption of inter-provincial travel, why did the three provinces of Hubei, Qinghai and Ningxia choose to officially announce the resumption of inter-provincial travel in these two days? The intention is very obvious, which is to seize the excellent dividends of the peak tourist season before the summer vacation.

Many provinces and regions that took the lead in resuming inter-provincial travel have already tasted the economic dividends brought by the first wave of tourism recovery.

For example, in Jiangxi Province, since inter-provincial travel resumed, the tourism market has continued to heat up. The Lushan Scenic Area has received 447,100 tourists in two weeks, and the peak tourism season has arrived early.

For example, in Yunnan, with the benefit of the resumption of cross-provincial travel, tourists from Dali, Lijiang and other places have begun to return one after another, and various scenic spots have begun to reappear with strong fireworks.

Another example is Xinjiang. On June 6, the first tourism charter flight in the Kashgar region arrived in Kashgar from Shandong. On June 17, more than 2,000 tourists arrived in Aksu and Kuqa, Xinjiang, by special train. On June 18, 200 tourists from Zhejiang arrived at Aksu Airport in Xinjiang on a charter flight aiding Xinjiang...

At present, many places have introduced policies related to precise prevention and control, which is the implementation of the "nine-level epidemic prevention and control measures" of the State Council. The effective implementation of "No" is a manifestation of saying "no" to the phenomenon of one-size-fits-all and layer-by-layer overloading, and provides policy guarantee for the people's normal travel. Just before the summer vacation, these measures will also become policy dividends for the relief and recovery of intra-provincial and inter-provincial travel during the summer.

Under the three major policies of resuming inter-provincial travel, free admission to scenic spots, and the coming of summer vacation, some popular tourist destinations have begun to gradually become lively. Ctrip data shows that the number of ticket bookings for scenic spots along the railway between June 15 and 21 was compared with the previous week. The Three Gorges Scenic Area increased by 11%, the Wushan Scenic Area increased by 17%, and the Shennongjia Scenic Area increased by 24%.

The domestic tourism market has entered a new normal, such as the epidemic in individual areas of Inner Mongolia, but it has not affected the tourism industry throughout Inner Mongolia. This is a very good start and the most direct manifestation of the normalization of the domestic tourism market. In addition to the normalization of the inter-provincial travel market, the relaxation of travel restrictions is also becoming a favorable norm.

We may not be too optimistic about the tourism market in the second half of the year, but there is no need to be too pessimistic. At present, everything is gradually changing and changing for the better.

Data show that Ctrip’s summer inter-provincial group tour bookings increased by 291% month-on-month in the past week, recent summer air ticket orders increased by 162% month-on-month, group travel product orders increased by 109% month-on-month, and summer hotel orders increased by 109% month-on-month. An increase of over 50%.

Qunar data shows that in the first half of June this year, hotel bookings across the country more than doubled compared with the second half of May.

Tujia data shows that on June 14, the transaction volume of B&B bookings around Shanghai Disneyland more than doubled from the 13th.

Tongcheng Travel released the "2022 Summer Travel Consumption Forecast Report" on June 19. It is expected that the domestic tourism market will return to the recovery track in the summer of 2022, and the overall number of trips is expected to return to 70% of the same period in 2019. Above;

Fliggy Travel stated that the total transaction volume of goods during the 618 event increased by more than 40% year-on-year. Among them, the transaction volume of high-star hotel packages increased by 90% year-on-year. The write-off progress of travel products is also accelerating. So far, the write-off amount of hotel packages sold in the 618 promotion has increased by 30% year-on-year.

Since June, the margin of aviation has improved, and the number of international flights has increased. According to data from Frequent Aviation, from June 6 to June 12, the total civil aviation passenger volume was 4.379 million, an increase of 35% month-on-month and 13% in the previous week. It was a decrease of 64% year-on-year in 2019 and a decrease of 73% in the previous week. According to Flight Manager data, from June 11 to June 17, the average daily number of domestic and international passenger flights in my country was 7,165, +21% from last week, +29% from last week, and -50% from 2019. , -58% last week. Starting from June 20, Chinese embassies and consulates in France, Australia, Indonesia, Norway, Spain, and the United States have simultaneously relaxed visa policies for China. At the same time, China Southern Airlines announced that it will resume seven international routes starting from June. Weekly flights have increased from 36 to 48, and the number of countries served has increased from 20 to 27. In addition, foreign airlines, Hainan Airlines, Capital Airlines and other airlines will also resume some international routes from July to September.

Hotels have made significant improvements since May. The year-on-year decline in RevPAR last week narrowed 9 points to 22%, and further repairs are still needed to open new stores. From the perspective of RevPAR recovery, last week (6.12-6.18) the hotel group’s RevPAR +9.2% month-on-month to 122 yuan, a significant increase for two consecutive weeks. This week’s year-on-year decline narrowed 8.7pct to -22.3%. From the perspective of hotel group signings, Huazhu/Jinjiang newly signed 162/167 hotels in April. The contracted stores still need to be further repaired and there is the possibility of adjusting the signing targets. Jinjiang China aims to return to pre-epidemic performance in 22Q3; Junting will It is expected that all 15 direct-operated stores will be launched at the earliest by the end of next year, and franchised brands are also expected to be launched.

Scenic spots are launching summer activities one after another, and the summer recovery is worth looking forward to.

1) Songcheng Performing Arts Zaolang Electronic Music Festival will open on July 2 in Hangzhou, Sanya, Lijiang, Jiuzhaigou, Guilin, Tanhe, Yichun, Zhengzhou and other eternal scene areas. In addition, there are many Activities are launched in the park.

2) Tianmu Lake Refreshing Water World will open on June 25th, and Tianmu Lake Night Park will open on July 1st. Electronic music festival, etc.

3) Wuzhen Xizha and Wucun will resume opening from June 1st, and special promotions for the parent-child season in Wuzhen & Wucun in June will be launched; Gubei Water Town will start summer plans one after another from June 1st A series of activities, including drone performances, Great Wall music and water dance shows and other entertainment programs every weekend.

5) Beijing Universal Studios Resort will resume operations on June 25 and will gradually resume operations in stages on the basis of strictly controlling passenger flow and strengthening a series of epidemic prevention and control measures.

The recovery rate of catering stores in the first half of the year was mostly around 70%, which improved month-on-month from May to June.

1) Jiumaojiu: The same store recovery rate in January, February, March, April, and May of 2022 was 88%/85%/60%/52%/61% of the same period in 2021. Assuming about 75% in June, the average recovery rate in the first half of the year is about 70%; the average recovery rate in the first half of the year is about 84%.

2) Helen Division: The same store recovery rate in January/February/March/April/May 2022 is 80%/90%/66%/60%/62% of the same period in 2021, assuming June About 79%, the average recovery rate in the first half of the year was about 73%.

3) Haidilao: The overall store turnover rate in January/February/March/April/May is 106%/100%/80%/80%/100% of the same period last year. Assume that June is 100%, the average recovery rate in the first half of the year is about 94%.

Consider the investment ranking from two dimensions in the short term.

First, the recovery speed of terminal demand: social service sector, OTA (platform enterprise), hotel (mainly business and travel rigid demand), catering (local) Mainly optional) Duty-free and scenic spots (mainly cross-city and cross-province);

The second is the recovery progress of stock price-sensitive indicators: social services sector, tax-free (sales, online logistics + offline travel at the same time Efforts) Catering (same-store restoration + direct-operated store opening at the same time) OTA (orders completed during peak season) Scenic spots (passenger flow resumed during peak season) and hotels (franchisees opened stores to restore, supplemented by performance restoration).

Sort out the list of stocks in the tourism sector predicted by institutions to have positive net profits this year and a growth rate of over 20%. Among them, institutions predict that CYTS’s net profit growth will exceed 800% in 2022, and Tibet Tourism’s net profit growth in 2022 is expected to be 385%.

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