Welfare is coming for “those in need”! Regulators have continued to express their opinions. Will mortgage approval be faster and cheaper?

21st Century Business Herald reporter Jia Junhui reported in Guangzhou, "Mortgage interest rates have been rising in the first half of the year, and I have no motivation to look at houses at all, but I have to look at them now."

This During the National Day, Li Qi (pseudonym), who had long planned to settle down in Guangzhou, was constantly on the road looking at houses because the real estate agent revealed to him that "the country has sent a signal that interest rates are going to drop, so you can prepare in advance."

The "signal" Li Qi mentioned was precisely the regulatory authorities represented by the central bank, which stated twice in succession at the end of September that they would "maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers." .

In the opinion of some people, with the release of the above-mentioned "signals", financial policies in the property market, including mortgage policies, will usher in a turning point. However, many industry insiders made it clear in interviews with reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald that housing for housing and not for speculation is the bottom line and a regulatory goal that must be adhered to in the long term. Under this tone, the financial policy of the property market will not change, but will be further optimized. .

So, how to optimize? A large part of it is to continue to meet the home-buying needs of groups like Li Qi who are in urgent need of housing, which requires banking and financial institutions to appropriately strengthen credit support for those in urgent need of housing.

Mortgage lending will accelerate in the second half of the year

Since the central bank launched the mortgage concentration management system at the end of last year, real estate financial regulatory policies have continued to increase. Mortgage interest rates in various places have continued to rise, and the lending cycle has also been hit hard. new high. On the one hand, this has effectively curbed speculative real estate speculation and stabilized property market expectations; on the other hand, it has indeed accidentally hurt many people who are in urgent need of housing, but this is obviously not the purpose of the regulators.

For example, in Guangzhou, mortgage interest rates have been raised five times this year, the most recent time in August. Currently, the interest rates for first and second home loans of mainstream commercial banks in Guangzhou are no less than 5.85 and 6.05 respectively, and the loan cycle is generally more than 3 months. If the bank's mortgage quota is tight, the loan time is basically unpredictable.

Such a situation leaves people like Li Qi at a loss as to what to do. "House prices have been rising, mortgage interest rates have also been rising, and the expectation of buying a house can only be postponed." Li Qi told reporters with a look of helplessness.

“Both new houses and second-hand houses, loans have been tightened, and some banks have even stopped lending to second-hand houses. This has hindered the release of improved demand for “sell one, buy one”, and the transaction volume of the property market has declined rapidly. Second-hand house prices fall, and the market may fluctuate significantly or significantly." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, told reporters that such financial policy interest rates obviously violate the requirements of preventing "accidental injury" to groups in need, and also violate the "one-size-fits-all" policy in the property market. "Basic requirements" may cause the market to decline significantly, which is not conducive to the "three stability".

On September 27, when the central bank held its third quarter regular meeting, it rarely mentioned content related to the real estate market, "to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers"; it just passed Two days ago, on September 29, the Central Bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a symposium on real estate finance and pointed out that “financial institutions must follow the principles of rule of law and marketization and cooperate with relevant departments and local governments to jointly maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. "Protecting the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers"

The real estate market was shaken by regulators' statements twice in three days. Many people cheered that the financial policy of the property market was about to usher in a big turn, and some even started to speculate about "deregulation of the property market." Argument".

In fact, at the real estate finance work symposium held on September 29, regulators once again reiterated the positioning of housing for living, not speculation, and requested that "real estate should not be used as a short-term means of stimulating the economy."

However, after regulators have continuously proposed to "protect the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers," housing "hard-needers" can look forward to changes in the mortgage market in the future.

A few days ago, data released by the worry-free housing search platform showed that in September, the mortgage interest rates of many banks in Guangzhou, Foshan and other regions have remained unchanged or even lowered.

Among them, in Guangzhou, the current mortgage interest rates of Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of Guangzhou, China Merchants Bank, and Guangda Bank have dropped compared with the past. Among them, the first-time home loan interest rate of China Everbright Bank has dropped to 5.60, a decrease of 40BP; and the first-time home loan interest rate of Guangzhou Bank has dropped by 40BP. The probability of buying a home has dropped to 5.45, and the interest rate for a second home has dropped to 5.65. In Foshan, the mortgage interest rates of China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China have been reduced. The interest rates of first and second homes of Agricultural Bank of China have dropped more, both to 20BP, and there are 3 other banks. The mortgage interest rates remained unchanged, while 2 banks raised them.

According to the reporter’s understanding, several major state-owned banks such as ICBC, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China have not yet adjusted their mortgage interest rates in various regions of Guangdong. At the same time, some real estate agents in Guangzhou told reporters that there is news that banks will lower the mortgage interest rates in Guangzhou, but "it has not been implemented yet, and the specific adjustments will not be determined until after the holiday."

However, many intermediaries revealed to reporters that they have received definite news that mortgage lending will accelerate in the second half of the year.

The tightest period for housing loan policies has passed

As early as December 2019, Central Bank Governor Yi Gang pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen the macroeconomic control of the real estate financial market in accordance with the principle of city-specific policies. Prudent management, strengthening the monitoring of the overall real estate financing situation, and comprehensively using a variety of tools to make counter-cyclical adjustments to real estate financing.

“This helps us understand policies such as ‘three red lines’ and ‘loan concentration management’,” Li Yujia believes that these real estate financial controls do not mean tightening real estate finance, but the pursuit of dynamic stability. "Policies will be tightened when the land market, leverage, etc. rise too fast, and policies will improve when they fall back and optimize."

Obviously, in the current environment, real estate financial supervision no longer has the adjustment to further tighten space. Recent statements by regulators also indicate that regulatory policies are looking for a balance point.

As a previous commentary in the central media "Economic Daily" said, "Regulatory policies must be more 'friendly' and channels should be further broadened to meet the real house-buying needs of groups in urgent need." We should make more complete and accurate predictions about the possible impacts on different groups, and do our best to prevent 'accidental injury' to groups in need."

Based on this, Li Yujia judged that the tightest period for housing loan policies has passed, and the next step is to It is optimization to avoid overshoot. "The central bank's proposal to 'protect the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers' means that for the purchase of first homes and the improved demand for 'sell one, buy one', credit will be increased in the future and the lending cycle will be shortened. The probability of interest rates rising again is slim. "

However, Cai Zonghan, director of the I Love My Home Holdings Research Institute, told reporters that individualized fine-tuning will still be carried out in accordance with the principle of city-specific and action-based policies. "Follow-up guarantees will be made. Market order is the main focus, and consumers with low or unqualified market qualifications are squeezed out. Reasonable real estate credit policies may be introduced for groups in urgent need, and there may be special supplements.”

However, Li Yujia also said. As a reminder, the solution to property market problems must be based on the mid- to long-term, rather than in one battle. "To maintain the stability of the property market and support reasonable demand, financial resources must keep up."