Who is abandoning Maotai?

Support: Remote Asset Management Reporting Department

In April, 2009, the Maotai Shareholders' Meeting in Zunyi, Guizhou Province, although it has not become Omaha for China investors, attracted many investors and fund managers.

There is light in their eyes, and they just want to find an answer: what happened in Kweichow Moutai? The stock king who rose nearly 30 times in seven years fell by 23% in two and a half months. While investigating Maotai Town, nothing can be obtained except the smell of wine. After investigating Maotai, fund managers and investors took out their mobile phones and chose to sell them with one click. Prior to this, the fund manager reduced his holdings of Maotai by 7.24% in a quarter.

Since then, Maotai management and investors have started a ten-year relationship.

20 13, Kweichow Moutai experienced the coldest winter. Maotai, once "a bottle is hard to find", has been a hot-selling product during the Spring Festival, and many tobacco hotels can't sell a bottle for three days. Many people blame the slow sales of Maotai on a paper "three public" consumption ban and plasticizer storm. As everyone knows, the policy of Yuan Renguo, then chairman of Maotai Group, laid the groundwork for ending the crisis of liquor golden decade.

1998, when Yuan Renguo first took office as general manager of Maotai, what he took over was actually a mess. Maotai sold less than 700 tons in two quarters. After Yuan Renguo took office, he immediately carried out market-oriented reform of marketing channels, carefully selected dealers with government relations as special distributors of group buying channels, and set up multiple distributors in a sales area to avoid a single dealer's excessive right to speak. In just ten years, 148 dealers have grown to more than 900.

While expanding channels and sales teams, we implemented a price increase policy for Maotai. The ex-factory price of Tian Fei Moutai 0 1 was only 2 18 yuan, and it rose to 6 19 yuan after1year, when the market price reached 2000 yuan.

From then on, Maotai was not a bottle of wine. There is a huge price difference of 1000 yuan between the ex-factory price and the market price, and huge profits have poured into the crazy expansion dealers. At that time, there was a saying in the industry: "Wuliangye needs funds, and Maotai needs relationships." The supply channels of many points of sale are confidential. This is obviously an abnormal market. [1] This is a personal income that is extremely easy to turn corporate income under the sun into gray.

1 1 At the end of the day, Feng Liu, who had made a lot of money in Maotai stock, gave his own cold thoughts on the rumor that Maotai would raise its ex-factory price.

Feng Liu believes that a good price difference can positively promote channels, help products penetrate, strengthen consumption, expand demand cultivation, and in turn promote the firmness of price difference, but everything is measured. Excessive price difference will lead to crazy market behavior and distort demand. At that time, Feng Liu avoided the interest relationship behind the laissez-faire price increase of Maotai management, and simply exposed the price illusion that Maotai was under the bubble at that time.

After Feng Liu's judgment, the central government's "eight regulations" were swept away, and government consumption channels were cut off. In the past three years, not only has the market price of Maotai dropped from 2299 to the bottom of 888 yuan, but its share price has also been adjusted by nearly 70%. Even the dealers who hoarded 1000 boxes have lost nearly 20 million.

Until 14, Fang Guoxing, former deputy general manager of Kweichow Moutai, was accused of taking advantage of his position to benefit others. At this time, it is not as simple as the problem of "value" investors' investment. Many investors doubt whether there is "interest transfer" behind the management of Maotai.

Yuan Renguo deeply realized that it was impossible to bind government consumption deeply, so he began to move to the business consumption and personal consumption market. Not only expanded the category of Moutai, but also tried the exploration of Maotai cloud merchants, and constantly promoted the flat development of channels.

Perhaps it is a positive change in the management of Maotai. Duan Yongping, a top domestic investor, saw the opportunity contained in Maotai and started to buy Maotai around 180 yuan. When talking about the corruption of Maotai and its management, Duan Yongping thought that Maotai was not directly related to corruption. Reducing public consumption will indeed reduce the sales of Maotai in the short term, but public consumption should not be the bulk of Maotai's consumption. Maotai is liked by people because it is a particularly good wine, and people who like it will naturally like to drink it.

At that time, not only Duan Yongping had confidence in Maotai, but also Zhang Kun, the SME manager of E Fund. Behind the "glory" of the current seven-year five-fold public offering king, his performance was once sluggish because he held a heavy position in Maotai.

In Zhang Kun's eyes, the problem encountered by Maotai 20 13 is the cliff on the demand side, but there is no substitute on the supply side, and it is also the first brand of China liquor. What everyone thinks is that the demand for the three public services accounts for half, and this demand is gone. If you only look at it for one year, this is right and the core contradiction. But if we look at it for ten years, this is not the core contradiction, but whether things are good or not is the core contradiction.

15 years ago, although there was a rift between the management of Maotai and investors, it is not difficult to see that Maotai can still make changes for investors, but what next?

In 20 18, maotai ushered in major personnel changes.

Li Baofang succeeded Yuan Renguo as the new chairman of Maotai Group, while Yuan Renguo's whereabouts are unknown, which makes people daydream.

Subsequently, Li Baofang drastically reduced its dealers and continuously expanded the construction of direct sales channels, especially supermarkets and e-commerce. On the day of the Double Eleven, Maotai achieved sales of over 100 million in only 14 hours. However, while being robbed on the Internet, Maotai Guan Wei announced that Nie Yong, the person in charge of e-commerce, was dismissed due to the problem of profit transfer.

Previously, Maotai had just experienced a down limit because its performance was less than expected and the interests of the person in charge of e-commerce were transferred. At this time, Maotai is particularly eye-catching. 18, Maotai No.1 was directly questioned by investors, including the problem that gross profit margin declined for four consecutive years, the problem that production capacity could not keep up with consumption, and the obvious decline in advance receipts. At this time, the person in charge of Maotai e-commerce was dismissed, which pushed investors' doubts to a climax.

Although many investment institutions that are bound to call Maotai show the temperament of Ye Gong and Long Hao, Lin Jing is quite optimistic about Maotai. Gao Yuncheng of Lin Jing Assets explained that the reason why Maotai's performance in the third quarter was less than expected was the year-on-year growth of 100% in the third quarter of last year, with a high base. This down limit was formed in an atmosphere of fragile market sentiment and pessimism about the future. The relationship between supply and demand of Maotai has not changed, but the performance between quarters is unbalanced.

Gao Yuncheng said that Maotai will not sell the company at a 75% discount because it lost $2 billion in the third quarter and will gain $2 billion in the fourth quarter or next year.

After half a year, Yuan Renguo was dismissed, and the management of Maotai presented a complicated situation like a grand view garden. Subsequently, Maotai's decline continued, and it received an inquiry letter from the China Securities Regulatory Commission about whether Maotai set up a marketing company to form a large related party transaction.

Investors began to question why Maotai Hall, a trillion-dollar listed company, set up a sales company instead of selling its own wine. Whether this involves the transfer of benefits.

Maotai Group set up a marketing company, and the market thinks there are two disadvantages. First, the group nibbled at the profits of the whaling channel. The flattening of Maotai's channels will be dominated by Maotai Group, and the rich benefits of the channels will also be completely taken away by Maotai Group. Second, the kinetic energy of Maotai's price increase in the future will be exhausted. The bigger the price difference, the richer the profits of the group. [2]

Facing the hot discussion in the market, Shan Bin, who insisted on holding Maotai for a long time, also sent a Weibo saying that the establishment of a marketing company in Maotai would not have any impact on the price increase of Maotai, but the liquor account recovered by the joint-stock company would be affected.

Under the deep digging of investors, the cash on Maotai's books11200 million was not used to buy wealth management, but a finance company was set up to make overall use of it. The establishment of financial companies directly leads to the reduction of profits and dividends obtained by shareholders, while the group may occupy more interest income.

At this time, "An Asset Management (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd.-Client Fund (Exchange)", which has held Maotai for a long time and made a big profit of 654.38 billion yuan, began to reduce its holdings of Kweichow Moutai.

The management of Maotai began to give full play to the role of Maotai as a cash cow, implicitly transferring the profits of Maotai, and this part of the money was used to improve the debt pattern of Guizhou, and there may be other uses. The contradiction between the management of Maotai and the minority shareholders of investors began to intensify, but the problem was covered up by the soaring share price of Maotai.

On June 10, 2020, Maotai held the shareholders' meeting as scheduled, which was also the first annual shareholders' meeting hosted by Gao Weidong, former director of Guizhou Provincial Department of Transportation, after replacing Li Baofang as chairman of Maotai Group.

Dramatically, the practice of "selling wine" was changed into a big gift box, which contained Tian Fei Maotai, Zodiac wine and various series of wines. The incredible bundled sales were spit out by investors.

What puzzles investors most is that Kweichow Moutai began to give blood transfusion to Guizhou in a big way, from buying two bottles of cheap Maotai by plane ticket to driving Guizhou tourist island to transferring 4% shares to Guizhou state-owned capital operation company for free, from spending 60 billion yuan on infrastructure projects to issuing 654.38+0.5 billion bonds for the equity acquisition of Guizhou Expressway.

These two days, Kweichow Moutai donated 546 million yuan to build Xixin Avenue in Xishui County, which can be described as a stroke of genius. It seems that the stock king in the hands of investors can come and go at will.

65438125, the third quarterly report of Kweichow Moutai was released, and the performance of Kweichow Moutai was slightly lower than the market expectation. Among them, Guizhou State-owned Capital Operation Co., Ltd., the new third largest shareholder in the fourth quarter of 20 19, reduced its holdings and cashed in more than 28 billion yuan in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Guizhou Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd. withdrew from the top ten shareholders of Kweichow Moutai in the third quarter.

The balance between management and investors in Kweichow Moutai has completely tilted to the management side.

Guizhou is indeed a magical place. Ordinary towns and villages can owe teachers 500 million yuan in salary, and small county towns with a fiscal revenue of several hundred million yuan a year can spend tens of billions on construction, shouldering outrageous debts. Being questioned by other provinces does not prevent Guizhou from cultivating a chicken that can lay eggs like Maotai.

Today, Kweichow Moutai is no longer a bottle of wine, and it may also become a stock king that only brings sustainable benefits to investors. Now Maotai has increasingly become an investment and financing platform for Guizhou's economic development. Today, Kweichow Moutai plunged 4.22 points, with a turnover of10 billion, which seems to be the biggest vent for investors to the recent operation of the management.

Fixed-income investors often ridicule the most unbreakable belief of Guizhou urban investment bonds. If there is a problem, they can also go to Zunyi to move Maotai to pay their debts. It is not a good financing way for local finance to use the profits of high-quality listed companies to feed back blood transfusion to themselves. Moreover, listed state-owned enterprises themselves have the responsibility to promote social development, and now many provinces are facing the same problems as Guizhou. Maotai has also become a sample of learning in other provinces. For example, Yanzhou Coal Industry in Shandong Province also began to acquire the assets of the Group.

However, local state-owned assets should not be too short-sighted and blindly run counter to investors. Only when the management and investors become "husband and wife" and have deep feelings for each other can the enterprise maximize its value to the local and society.

In today's increasingly unsustainable land finance, we can see a perfect sample of local finance by looking at Maotai in the past. In the future, if the management doesn't cherish this chicken that can only lay golden eggs, Maotai will fall off the altar one day.

reference data

[1]. Commentary: "Interest transfer" is a mystery. Why does Maotai blame itself?

[2]. Maotai 1 day lost 85 billion! Some major shareholders were complained that they violated the interests of listed companies, and private equity tycoon Shan Bin also spoke. What happened? -China Fund.

[3]. The transformation and incentive of Kweichow Moutai is the key.

Risk warning: the market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investment. The viewpoint in this paper does not guarantee the market trend, and the historical performance does not guarantee the future performance. Mentioning the industry does not constitute any recommendation, and the situation of overseas markets and individual stocks is for reference only.