The epidemic situation is repeated, where is the tourism industry going? Travel agencies are struggling, and star-rated hotels are facing the test of life and death.

At the beginning of 20021,the biggest news should be the recurrence of the epidemic. All localities asked not to leave the region and called on migrant workers to spend the New Year there.

Although the Spring Festival holiday tourism has never been the main content, the huge turnover of people during the long holiday has made many tourism-related enterprises have high hopes. They hope that 20021will get off to a good start and ease the accumulated operating pressure in 2020.

Unfortunately, all these expectations will come to nothing.

Wutai Mountain closed all the temples and actually closed the scenic spot. If it can't be reopened before the Spring Festival, the large passenger flow on the first and fifteenth days of the first month will be completely gone.

I believe that similar scenic spots will be closed one after another, and the peak season that many tourism practitioners expect will be ruined.

So, how big is the impact of the epidemic on tourism? What dangers and opportunities will the epidemic situation bring repeatedly?

Let's analyze and interpret the statistics of travel agencies and star-rated hotels in recent years.

The number of travel agencies has not decreased, but their performance has declined significantly.

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, from the third quarter of 20 19 to the third quarter of 2020, the total number of travel agencies in China increased from 38,433 to 40 167, and the number of business data reported by travel agencies remained stable at around 30,000.

Obviously, the epidemic has not had much impact on the number of travel agencies, which is related to the low survival cost of travel agencies. I remember that at the beginning of the epidemic, a large number of tour guides changed careers, and the biggest labor cost of travel agencies was easily solved.

In order to consider the operation of travel agencies, we adopt a comprehensive index, that is, the daily average number of tourists organized by travel agencies. This data is obtained by dividing the number of domestic travel organizations of travel agencies by the number of travel agencies reported in the current quarter and then by 90 days.

The average daily number of tourists organized by travel agencies is simply the average number of people sent by travel agencies every day.

As can be seen from the data changes, the epidemic has hit the operating data of travel agencies. In the first and second quarters of 2020, the daily average number of tourists organized by travel agencies decreased by more than 90% compared with the third quarter of 20 19 before the epidemic.

In the third quarter of 2020 after the epidemic eased, although the indicators rebounded, there was still a big gap from the so-called retaliatory rebound.

There are many reasons for this. Affected by the epidemic, people's willingness to travel is reduced; The mode of travel has changed, and many people have given up travel agencies; Due to a large number of tour guides changing careers, the business recovery of travel agencies is slow. These should be the main reasons.

Will the figure of 30,000 travel agencies continue to persist because the epidemic has repeatedly destroyed Spring Festival travel rush? How long can it last?

The reduction in the number of star-rated hotels has begun.

There are two data about the number of star-rated hotels, one is the number of registered hotels, that is, the number of hotels with star-rated licenses; The other is the number of hotels that can be understood as normal operations through auditing.

As can be seen from the chart, the number of star-rated hotels has been declining for a long time. Even from 20 19, before the outbreak, the number of normal operations has begun to decline sharply. This should be the result of the double attack of declining economic activities and rising costs.

The outbreak is the third blow to the hotel industry. During the one-year period from September 20 19 to September 2020, 1000 star-rated hotels had problems.

In June 2020, only 6,345 star-rated hotels passed the audit. Due to repeated epidemics, this figure is probably not the lowest point.

Looking at the income trend, it plummeted in the first quarter of 2020, stopped falling and rebounded in the second quarter, and rebounded sharply in the third quarter, but it still did not return to the pre-epidemic level.

The income of star-rated hotels in 20 19 is close to 200 billion, and it is estimated that the income of star-rated hotels will be in the early stage of 1000 billion in 2020. However, due to the recurrence of the epidemic, the income of star-rated hotels will be affected again in the first quarter of 2002/KLOC-0. This kind of comeback is often the most deadly.

In the trend of daily average income, the trend seems to be much better than the previous indicators, but personally, this is not a good thing.

Before the outbreak, the development trend of the number of star-rated hotels was completely different from the average daily income, which actually showed that the operating costs of hotels were rising. For specific hotels, if the income can't keep up with this rising trend, it can only be eliminated.

Affected by the epidemic, the average daily income of star-rated hotels dropped sharply in the first quarter of 2020, resulting in the normal operation of 6,345 star-rated hotels at the end of June.

The average daily income rose sharply in the third quarter, which was the result of the overall relief of the epidemic and the improvement of the market. More than 700 star-rated hotels have also come back to life, but their cash flow will be very fragile.

According to the data of 20 19, the break-even line of daily average income of star-rated hotels should have exceeded 70,000 yuan. Below this figure, it will inevitably lead to a decrease in the number, so as to increase the average daily income of the surviving hotels.

For the 700 star-rated hotels and other hotels that have come back to life before, the epidemic situation that appeared in 20021will be a life-and-death test.

Travel agencies and hotels are industries closely related to tourism. Travel agencies are representatives of light assets, while hotels are representatives of heavy assets.

It can be seen that although the performance of light and heavy asset industries is greatly affected by the epidemic, the consequences are not the same.

The overall number of travel agencies has not decreased significantly, because their operating costs are lower and it is easier to retain their licenses. On the other hand, star-rated hotels will face huge costs one day after opening, so the number of enterprises operating normally has dropped significantly.

Moreover, the epidemic situation has different effects on hotels with different star ratings.

As shown in the above figure, in the third quarter of 2020, the average daily income per room of star-rated hotels will increase with the increase of stars. As passengers control their expenses, the pressure on high-star hotels will be even greater.

Obviously, the first task during the epidemic period is to survive, and enterprise management focuses on reducing costs and doing a good job in defense. Before the worldwide epidemic is really clear, any radical behavior will face great risks and need to be cautious.

Affected by the epidemic, cross-regional mobility has been restrained, so Zhou Bianyou and urban tourism will become the release window of demand. However, these two kinds of tourism have little dependence on traditional travel agencies.

The end of the overseas epidemic is far away, and there is a high probability that the Japanese Olympic Games will be cancelled this year. Repeated domestic epidemics will at least dampen the enthusiasm for traveling in the first half of the year, and medium and long-distance tourism will also be suppressed. Therefore, it is difficult to alleviate the plight of travel agencies in a short period of time, and it is difficult to avoid the reshuffle of the industry.

As for the hotel, according to the data, the reshuffle has begun.

The upstream industry has changed dramatically, and the downstream attractions cannot be immune. The real impact is still in the future.

Of course, domestic famous scenic spots are always scarce resources. As long as there are tourists, they can always get a piece of the action. However, it is hard to say whether the well-known regional and local scenic spots, especially the tepid scenic spots before the epidemic, can be dispersed and when there will be a bright moon.

In short, the prospects are confusing and the difficulties are yet to come. We should cheer up and face it seriously.