Similarity between real estate industry and hotel industry

What is the current situation of China real estate market?

At present, since the second half of 2004, with the continuous rise of housing prices, the prosperity index of China real estate industry has shown an upward trend. Under the national macro-control, the growth rate of completed area, land development area, newly started area and other indicators has dropped sharply, and the government's control over land resources has led to an unprecedented increase in the appreciation expectation of this scarce resource. Owners are willing to pay for it as soon as possible, whether they invest or earn their own money.

In 2006, the comprehensive prosperity index of national real estate development was 103.5 1, the investment index of real estate development was1kloc-0/.52, the land development area index was 100.99, and the sales price index was 109.54.

From June to July, 2006, the developed land area in China increased by12731.1.8% compared with the same period in 2005, and the land area in China decreased by 185205438+0.8% compared with the same period in 2005.

From June to July, 2006, the national investment in real estate development was 94110.50 billion yuan, an increase of 24% over the same period in 2005. The real estate investment in East China was 61210.6 billion yuan, an increase of 20% compared with the same period in 2005.

In the first quarter of 2006, the national land transaction price index (industrial storage land) was 104.5%, while the national land transaction price index (commercial tourism and entertainment land) was 107%.

From June to July, 2006, the investment in commercial buildings was11267 million yuan, an increase of 15.6% over the same period of 2005, and the investment in office buildings was 4 134 million yuan, an increase of 13.6% over the same period of 2005.

With the large-scale comprehensive shopping centers represented by American Moore settled in Beijing, Shenzhen and other large and medium-sized cities, China's retail industry is fully open to the outside world. Almost all large and medium-sized cities have built or planned to build large shopping centers, which has left a huge market development space for the development of commercial real estate developers. As a different form of store leasing, commercial real estate is quietly becoming the new favorite of the real estate market, and China commercial real estate will set off a new round of investment boom. Shops, real estate shopping centers, real estate hotels, real estate office buildings and industrial real estate will become the highlights of future commercial real estate investment.

What do you think of the real estate industry in China at present? (discussion)

The problem facing real estate at present is not that there are risks, but who should bear the risks.

The real estate industry is an industry with high market risk. In addition to the long period of capital-intensive construction, the risk mainly comes from the special formation mechanism of its price. The difference between house price and other products is that its price is mainly determined not by cost and utility, but by differential rent to a great extent. The same house, built in the center of Beijing and built in suburban counties, will not have much difference in construction cost and actual function. The difference is the differential rent.

The objective basis of differential rent is only a social agreement. If a certain feature of this house is recognized by today's society, then it is valuable. If society does not recognize this feature tomorrow, it will be worthless. Since the Asian financial crisis, housing prices in Hong Kong have fallen by 65% in six years. Why is it because everyone was optimistic about Hong Kong's economy and housing prices, but now people's expectations are just the opposite? Houses are still those houses, and the population and even the social income level have not changed much. People's social expectations have changed and house prices have plummeted. In other words, we don't need to discuss whether there are risks in the real estate industry. As long as it is a market economy, this risk is definitely objective in this industry.

Risk is an objective fact. The real question we need to discuss is not whether there is any risk, but how to allocate this risk and who will bear it. There is no doubt that all participants in this industry and this market should bear the corresponding risks. This participant may include capital suppliers, developers, builders and property buyers.

Developers, of course, have to bear corresponding risks for their investment behavior. How to bear it? There is an agreement in the market economy that they should bear it through the proportion of their own funds. Generally speaking, assuming that people estimate that the actual market house price before sale will drop by at most 30% compared with the total investment, the developer should provide at least 30% of the total investment. If the fund provider estimates that it will drop by at most 30% and the result will drop by 40%, then the error of 10 percentage point will be borne by the fund. According to international experience and market rules, the first risk taker in the process of real estate development should be the developer. There is no doubt that some domestic developers' own funds account for a high proportion of the total investment in shoes, and bank loans account for a high proportion of the funds of builders and buyers, which actually transfers the risks they should bear to bank builders and buyers. In fact, most of the funds of builders and buyers also come from banks. In this case, the inherent risks of the real estate industry are inappropriately allocated to banks.

Second, the material basis of capital supply in China real estate industry is the key, and the channels of capital supply and demand need to be adjusted.

Building a certain number of houses requires a certain amount of capital turnover. This demand for capital will not change because it is provided by banks or other investors. We must make a clear basic judgment, that is, the capital supply to meet the current development scale of China's real estate industry is sufficient. This material basis exists objectively. In China's current social and economic operation, there is no shortage of funds. Capital supply and capital demand exist at the same time. The only question is who will connect supply and demand, and through what channels and ways.

In addition to developers providing their own funds, debt financing is a standardized and reasonable way for the development of the real estate industry. There is no doubt that real estate developers must borrow money on a large scale.

Bank is one of the traditional channels to connect the supply and demand sides of monetary funds under the market economy, but the biggest feature of bank funds is to pursue liquidity and security first. Common sense of market economy shows that the risk of creditor's rights is less than that of equity creditor's rights through bank credit funds and directly listed bonds. Among the various ways and channels to connect the supply and demand of funds, the risk tolerance of bank funds is the smallest, and the way people pursue this risk is to deposit money in banks instead of buying stocks and bonds. This is a natural feature of the funds that banks can provide. If the safest bank funds become the main part of risky real estate investment, it is like letting mule sellers and horse buyers trade, and the requirements of the two sides are not the same.

There is both supply and demand. Our problem is that the supply lacks realistic channels to flow to the demand basin, so how should we connect them? The author believes that in addition to the developer's own funds, the next big developer with strength and good reputation will issue short-and medium-term project bonds to the open capital market directly or through banks, and bond investors will bear different risks according to different income expectations.

Not every developer can issue bonds, such as the construction of small and medium-sized cities, where it is difficult for developers to issue bonds in the national market, and not all investors are willing to bear the risk of corporate bonds. The next reasonable step is for banks to "manufacture" financial products as intermediaries. After lending the funds to the developers, the banks "packaged" the creditor's rights of several projects and sold them in the bond market, which not only met the liquidity and security requirements of the bank's funds, but also dispersed the risks of investors. The next step should be direct financing provided by banks or financing obtained from buyers through pre-sale.

Third, it is not the responsibility of banks and real estate developers to solve the housing problems of low-and middle-income people. Social equity should be regulated more through fiscal policy than monetary policy.

Now there is a saying that many low-and middle-income people can't afford to buy houses, but a large number of "luxury houses" built by developers can't be sold. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the investment of bank funds, encourage the real estate industry to develop more affordable housing through monetary leverage such as interest rates, and provide preferential policy support for low-and middle-income people to buy houses.

At any time, the policy should not deny or ignore the orientation of social equity in housing, but the fair policy to solve the housing problem of low-and middle-income groups should not be extended to the money market, capital market and real estate market. Banks are enterprise developers and enterprises. They are facing the market to solve the housing problem of low-and middle-income people, rather than market-oriented enterprises such as banks or developers. In this field, we must strengthen and improve the market-oriented rules of the game, and we cannot add fair policy guidance.

What needs to be clear is that under the market economy, the main function of monetary policy is to adjust the balance between total supply and total demand, and the main lever to adjust fairness is fiscal policy. In order to solve the housing problem of low-and middle-income groups, we should adopt more financial policies, such as interest subsidies and rent subsidies. For example, families with urban per capita income below a certain level can be subsidized by the government when buying a house. What if some poor families can't afford the discount? Land rent subsidies can be adopted to separate policies from market development, and factors that regulate fairness cannot participate in normal market transactions, otherwise it will distort the truth.

There is one problem that is particularly worth distinguishing. Compared with our urbanization goal, if the existing housing resources are included, is the proportion of "luxury houses" too large or the proportion of low-grade housing too large? Compared with the lowest-income people in urgent need of housing and the most expensive idle luxury houses, we will never find a market outlet.

In the story of Tian Ji Horse Racing, you used 100 mathematical model to simulate three horses in Tian Ji, but Tian Ji did win 3-2. How did you win? How did you sell a 200-square-meter mansion in a market economy? People who live in 160 square meters high-grade apartments sell apartments and buy luxury houses, while small bosses who live in 120 square meters houses take middle and low grades. Stall apartments sell 160 m2 high-grade apartments, residents living in 90 m2 ordinary houses sell existing houses to buy 120 m2 middle and low-grade apartments, and residents living in 60 m2 ordinary units sell smaller and farther units to buy larger houses of 90 m2. People who used to live in bungalows sold bungalows and bought units of 60 square meters. Finally, migrant workers and businessmen who had no houses went to cities. The clerk bought a 30-square-meter bungalow, and the 200-square-meter mansion was actually "sold separately". The solution to the contradiction between expensive luxury houses and the lack of housing for low-and middle-income people is not to demolish luxury houses to build cheap houses, nor to subsidize low-and middle-income people to buy luxury houses.

Our problem now is that the liquidity of housing stock resources is too poor. Until now, the secondary market has not developed, and the above reasonable resource allocation scheme can not be realized spontaneously through market transactions. Without the circulation of the secondary market and even the right of residence, it is impossible to establish incremental stepped housing resources with downward stock resources, and it is also impossible to digest them smoothly in the market.

We should not return the goal of urbanization to the level of building a "new village for workers" in the planned economy era. The experience of all countries in the world, including developed and developing countries, shows that the number of people who need to rely on government subsidies to solve the housing problem will not exceed 10%. Most people rely on the market to solve the housing problem.

Blind investment should be curbed, but the current development of real estate industry should be alert to "overheating"

At present, some places do have overly optimistic expectations about the housing price prospect, which leads to some blind investment tendencies, but this is a local problem, not a global problem, so we should be cautious about the "overheating" of the current real estate development.

There should be a reason to say "overheating", that is, compared with what is "overheating"

Let's compare the demand first.

At present, it is said that hundreds of millions of square meters of idle commercial housing cannot be sold. Some people think that supply exceeds demand, so it is overheated. Then let's estimate the housing needs of migrant workers. It is said that the current urban residents assume that 20% of urban families have the requirement to improve their housing, and this 20% estimate will definitely not "take risks". Let's assume that these families who want to improve their housing just want to increase their housing by 20 square meters, which is not a very high requirement. How many households are there in 20% urban households? It is 27 million households.

People can judge from their own experience that this demand exists objectively, that is, they can buy it now or with the help of housing credit. Another way of saying this question is, do we have more than 540 million square meters of commercial housing idle now?

Let's compare it with the supply capacity at the physical level

One of the possible manifestations of "overheating" is that the monetary input in a certain field far exceeds the physical supply.

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Demand exceeds physical supply, which will lead to price increases. Most of the hyperinflation that China encountered in the past had such characteristics. The question is, is there a shortage of bricks, lime sand or main building materials?

The current level of price changes in China is only a slight positive growth of about 0.3%. The biggest danger of this overall price level is not inflation, but returning to the negative growth range that has just come out.

Let's compare it with the money supply

It can also be called "overheating" because one industry occupies too much resources and inhibits the development of other industries. But so far, the amount of funds occupied by the real estate industry has led to the shortage of funds in other industries. Did it not lead to the real interest rate or the private interest rate being much higher than the nominal interest rate? Neither does it. This is the most obvious difference between the development of China's real estate industry and the early 1990s.

In fact, the huge deposits and losses of banks are still our main concern in the financial field. What is the general expectation of the capital market since 2003? Is it to cut interest rates further at the current low interest rate level?

Let's compare the market value of bank funds and real estate resources.

In developed countries or regions, mortgage to buy a house has a long history, so it occupies a considerable proportion in the property rights of real estate resources in the whole society. In fact, it is the creditor's rights of the bank. For example, 40%, 50% or even higher of the total market value of all houses in the whole society is actually money borrowed from banks through "mortgage". In this case, a slight change in house prices in the market may bring great risks to banks.

Is this the case in China? No, our mortgage has just started. Most owners of existing properties don't owe money to the bank. At present, the houses with creditor's rights are just some new houses sold or developed in recent years. Compared with the bank funds that have already entered the market, the asset credit of China's real estate sector can be said to be the highest in the world.

The example of selling luxury houses we cited earlier can illustrate this point. In that example, if we assume that all existing homes don't owe money to the bank, then the total liabilities that buyers need to borrow from the bank will not exceed 200 square meters, so what are the physical assets corresponding to the bank's 200 square meters housing loan? It is a 200-square-meter mansion plus 160-square-meter high-grade apartment plus 120-square-meter low-grade apartment plus 90 square meters. Is it really risky to have such a dual-asset credit bank for ordinary houses plus 60 square meters of ordinary units plus 30 square meters of bungalows? Furthermore, the question we are facing now is whether the scale of bank loans has exceeded the scale of credit guarantee or a large number of assets and credit resources have been idle.

Therefore, the author suggests that it is far from us to develop and improve the secondary market as soon as possible, let the stock resources join the circulation, let the planned economy make use of the underdeveloped market to "rent-seeking" for profit.