The past and present situation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

American newspaper articles talked about the evolution of the position and role of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the oil market.

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing 10, 18, and The Wall Street Journal Chinese website published an article entitled "The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will strike again" on June 10, with the following excerpts:

Every time the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) holds a regular meeting, a large number of journalists and oil analysts flock to it. However, for more than a year, these meetings have been unusually quiet. The reason is that this oil organization composed of 1 1 countries has nothing to do with it.

Oil prices have climbed to a high level step by step, and members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have basically done their best to increase production. Therefore, the debate about whether to reduce production and raise oil prices or increase production to meet more demand has lost its meaning.

Some observers even think that OPEC has no influence on the oil market. But judging from the recent development, I'm afraid they are wrong.

With the success of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in maintaining high oil prices, it gradually faded out of the center of the world economic stage. However, in recent weeks, with the oil price falling from the historical high point in July, the efforts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost oil prices have brought it back to the focus of attention. In many member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the production cost of crude oil is less than $2/barrel, and it was once sold for $75 this year. At present, the oil price is reported at around $59 per barrel.

There is a fierce debate within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries about who should bear the heavy responsibility of reducing production. The organization plans to reduce production by 6.5438+0 million barrels per day, which is close to 4% of the output. In the final analysis, the problem is that this oil monopoly organization has started to make waves in the market again.

Today's Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is neither a devil who caused the oil price to soar and shake the world in the 1970s, nor a paper tiger in the 1980s and 1990s. Despite the low oil price, there is nothing it can do.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Naimai played an important role in awakening the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and shifting its attention from political and national issues to oil business.

In an interview last year, Naimei said, "I will tell you what happened. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has changed from a bickering organization to a group concerned about the interests of the group. Today, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is very professional. In fact, we hardly have any problems. There is absolutely no more politics. "

However, judging from the recent debate on how to allocate production reduction targets, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is not as harmonious as Naimeh said. However, the overall situation he described is still in line with the facts.

Some people in the oil industry believe that as long as the world's demand for OPEC oil keeps growing, in the long run, OPEC will definitely become stronger. In addition, some analysts also said that the chaotic oil market needs supply adjustment. Without the organization of petroleum exporting countries to regulate the relationship between supply and demand, the fluctuation of oil prices may be even greater.

This is just a drop in the bucket for consumers, who have been angered by the high oil price, which has brought them a huge burden, but it has made the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries make a fortune. But in fact, all oil-producing countries from Angola to Russia to the United States have benefited a lot. Multinational oil companies and crude oil refineries are also profitable.

There are many reasons for the high oil price in recent years. For example, after the invasion of Iraq by the United States in 2003, the output of this area dropped sharply, and the aftermath still existed. But the most important point is that the demand for oil has increased by leaps and bounds in recent decades, which has exceeded the growth rate of supply. This imbalance between supply and demand leaves little surplus capacity. At present, the main excess capacity exists in Saudi Arabia, some of which are located in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

This is no accident, which fully proves the influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on the oil market. The member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have more than 75% of the world's oil reserves, but only supply 40% of the world's daily consumption of 8,500 barrels.

In the past 30 years, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has restricted the development of its oil reserves, which has forced many international oil companies to explore oil in other areas at higher prices, including the cold Alaska and the storm-ravaged North Sea. There are constant quarrels and even fights within OPEC, but in any case, they try their best to curb supply through the quota system and achieve the goal of pushing up oil prices.

A report submitted by the US Federal Trade Commission to Congress this year shows that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is a functional organization. If controlled by private enterprises, their activities will be illegal. Some people tried to take the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to the American court, but failed, because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is a group of 1 1 sovereign countries.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is also smarter than in the 1980s. It is very sophisticated to divert attention and shirk responsibility. Compared with three years ago, the current oil price has tripled, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries blames many factors, from the sudden surge in demand to rampant speculation in the oil market.

When the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries held a meeting in June, a luxury Mercedes-Benz motorcade carrying oil ministers from various countries, escorted by an SUV equipped with an alarm and armed commandos, arrived at the luxury hotel in Karakas. The whole process is heavily guarded.

This time, it became a happy gathering of oil ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. These days, oil exports have brought rolling financial resources to their respective countries, and they themselves have been warmly received at home. On the TV screen, people did not hesitate to give all kinds of praises to these oil ministers. According to PFCEnergy, an industry consulting firm, the soaring oil price has made OPEC members make a fortune. It is estimated that the oil export income of these countries will far exceed 500 billion US dollars this year, which is expected to reach more than five times of the oil export income of 107 billion US dollars 1998.

No one will hate to describe the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as the devil, because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has not restricted the supply of oil this time, and there are other factors hidden behind the recent rise in oil prices. However, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also ruled out the possibility of forcing oil prices to fall through price cuts.

Naimei said in an interview in Caracas, "We won't leave the money on the table and let others take it." . The reason is that if the crude oil pricing in Saudi Arabia and other countries is lower than the market price, refiners can still sell petroleum products such as automobiles and diesel oil at the market price, thus taking away the difference.

Although high oil prices have damaged economic growth to some extent, so far, the global economy has absorbed this price shock well and continued to maintain its growth momentum.

Oil experts and industry think tanks believe that as the oil production in other parts of the world approaches the highest level (possibly as early as 20 10), the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may become stronger. After the oil production in other regions reaches the highest level, any increase in global oil demand must be met by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

At present, a big question is whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will invest enough to expand its production capacity and meet the expectation of long-term demand growth. In recent years, China and India have enjoyed vigorous economic development, joined the ranks of Europe and the United States, and become big oil consumers, so the global oil demand has been growing strongly. Today's oil industry can barely satisfy the world's thirst for oil.

In addition, the crises in the Middle East, Africa and other oil-producing areas have also made the market worried about the safe supply of energy. Accidents and hurricanes damaged production and oil refining facilities. Some people think that global oil production has reached or is near the peak.

At the same time, the increase in oil revenue has encouraged some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Iran is an example. Political and oil commentators believe that it is precisely because of the increase in oil revenue that Iran has strengthened its confidence in competing with the United States and its allies on the issue of uranium enrichment, and Venezuela has also embarrassed the United States by supporting Tehran. At the meeting of OPEC members in June, some oil ministers were very nervous about what Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the host country of the meeting, would say. However, considering the above factors, it is not surprising that these oil ministers reacted.

Chavez did not disappoint. He accused the rich western countries and North American countries of exploiting the resource-rich poor countries in South America. "The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an anti-colonial and anti-imperialist organization and a liberation organization that promotes the development of people in Latin American countries and Asian and African countries." Chavez's voice is like that of Hong Zhong. Chavez claimed that after being forced to yield in the 1980s and 1990s, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was almost on the verge of death, and it was not until the summit of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in 2000 that there was a turnaround.

Some OPEC officials in the audience were frightened by this statement. "He tried to destroy what we have built for years in 15 minutes," an oil minister said privately. In order to maintain the newly established creed of separating politics from oil, oil ministers ignored Chavez's various suggestions, including: cutting production even if the price of crude oil exceeds $70 a barrel, starting to use euros instead of dollars, and even not selling oil when the oil price falls below $50 a barrel.

Chavez likes to confuse oil, politics and inequality, just like the oil minister of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the 1970s. At that time, the international oil company, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, seized a lot of assets and capabilities, pushing the oil price from less than $2/barrel in 1970 to $37/barrel in the late 1970s.

During the period later known as the first oil crisis, the Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries jointly imposed an oil export embargo on the United States and other countries in 1973 in retaliation for their support for Israel. As a result, oil prices rose sharply, and after the Iranian revolution in the late 1970 s, oil prices soared further.

High oil prices also hurt them. Oil-consuming countries began to adopt various countermeasures, including using other fuels, saving energy and developing their own energy resources. The oil market plunged at 1985, and then languished at the middle price level of 10. At the end of 1990s, because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries failed to recover enough oil from the market, the output dropped sharply again.

The second oil crisis helped the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries get rid of its weak predicament. After a series of meetings, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries finally regained control of oil production.

Since then, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been trying to establish itself as a regulator of the oil market, and its own goal is to reduce price fluctuations.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is not the first oil alliance organization. In the 1920s, major oil companies held a two-week meeting in Scotland and reached an international market sharing agreement. However, this agreement failed to be implemented in the end. After a period of time, the Texas Railway Commission implemented production quotas to stabilize the market.

Roger Devan, an analyst at PFC Energy in Washington, said that it is true that the oil market always needs a manager. He said that if there is no such organization to stabilize the market by regulating supply, there will be more price crises. "If oil inventories increase by 3%, prices may fall by 50%. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has played a role in absorbing shocks. "

OPEC announced a production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day.

Www.shaoxing.com.cn Shaoxing Net 2008- 12- 18 09:45

On Wednesday night, Beijing time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced that it would reduce its daily oil production quota by 2.2 million barrels, which is the largest one-off production reduction measure in the history of the organization. In view of the fact that the current oil price has shrunk by more than 70% compared with the historical high of 150 USD/barrel, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries hopes to raise the oil price by reducing production.

In a statement, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said that the announced production reduction measures mean that the daily supply of crude oil in the global market will be reduced by 4.2 million barrels on the basis of September. Prior to this, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced in September that it would reduce the daily oil production quota by 500,000 barrels, and this year's quota will be 1 1.5 million barrels.

Together with the measures announced today to reduce production by 2.2 million barrels, the cumulative output announced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries since the end of September has reached 4.2 million barrels.

Chakib Khelil, chairman of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Algerian Ministry of Oil, said that the cumulative scale of production reduction was "2.2%".

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries consists of 65,438+03 member countries. At present, the official daily oil production quota of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is 2,904,500 barrels.

He Xun News According to an article signed by Kecorolla Hoyus published in the Financial Times on February 8, 65438, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on Wednesday that it would try its best to curb the downward trend of oil prices. Despite this, the oil price did not rise because of this, but still showed a downward trend.

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Although the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to cut oil production, oil prices did not stop falling, but fell to the lowest level in four years. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (65438+1delivery in June/October) fell to $40.2/barrel, down less than $3.5; Oil for February delivery also fell 82 cents to $45.99 a barrel. In London's Brent oil market, the price of crude oil for delivery in February next year also fell by 5% to $46.60 a barrel.

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Oil traders doubt whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) can cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day, and even less believe that it has the ability to intercept further production cuts. Khalil, chairman of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said that he believed that 70 to 80 dollars per barrel was a fair oil price, far lower than the highest price of 70 to 80 dollars per barrel 147.27 dollars in July this year, but also far higher than the current level.

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