What is the development trend of domestic hotel industry in the future?

1, the supply is relatively surplus, the competition is fierce, and the future development speed will be reduced. From 1996 to 2000, the tourist hotel industry * * * increased 354,000 rooms, with an average annual growth rate of 12.39%, while the growth rate of tourists in the same period was 4.0%. Because the supply exceeds the demand, hotel enterprises compete excessively. From 1996 to 1998, the average occupancy rate and profit rate of hotels in China decreased year by year, and the whole industry suffered losses from 1998. The losses in 1998, 1999 and 2000 were 4.556 billion yuan, 5.364 billion yuan and 2.643 billion yuan respectively. This situation. The new investment has been restrained, forcing the hotel industry to slow down its scale expansion. At the same time, strategic issues such as controlling the total number of hotels and improving the quality of hotels are put forward.

2. The new development investment points of the hotel industry will gradually move westward to optimize the regional structure. Due to the rich tourism resources in the central and western regions of China, and a series of measures to develop the central and western regions have been introduced in succession, some hotel investments will probably be transferred from the eastern and southern regions to the central and western regions. With the further development of economy and tourism resources in the central and western regions, the hotel industry in the central and western regions will further develop and become the new and most potential growth region of hotel industry in China. Generally speaking, the total number and grade of tourist hotels in cities in developed coastal areas have reached a very high level, while the central region has developed rapidly, and it is expected to reach a higher level in the next three years, with the bottleneck mainly in the western region.

3. The management level of hotels will continue to be in line with international standards, and it will become a new trend to strive to develop economy hotels with international standards. As far as competition is concerned, in the field of high-end hotels, foreign hotels will continue to maintain their advantages, and most domestic hotels are concentrated in the low-end areas. In the middle and low-end areas, foreign-funded hotels have not yet moved. Economy hotels with international standards will become the focus of competition and construction in the future. Economy hotel is the focus of foreign hotel groups. According to the forecast of China Tourism Bureau, by 2020, the number of overnight visitors will reach 9500-1390,000, with an average annual growth rate of 5.7%-7.75%. The International Tourism Organization predicts the future, and thinks that by 2020, the number of international tourists will reach 654.38+0.6 billion, and China will reach 654.38+0.3 billion, making it the largest country of entry in the world. In view of this trend, foreign hotel groups regard budget hotels in China as a potential growth point. With the implementation of paid vacation, the improvement of traffic conditions and the improvement of people's income level, domestic tourism has developed rapidly, and domestic guests have become a source of tourists that cannot be ignored in hotels. The future demand trend is that economy hotels with simple decoration, clean sanitation, convenient facilities and moderate price will become the hotel industry type valued by domestic tourists. In terms of quality and service, high-end hotels basically meet the demand, and there are a large number of middle and low-end hotels, but they are far from international standards. This situation is not consistent with the growth trend of international and domestic economic tourists. There are more than 240,000 hotels, guesthouses, guest houses and other accommodation facilities in China, of which about 1 000 are star-rated hotels, accounting for 4%. There are more than 230,000 accommodation facilities, and more than 96% of them have not entered the star range. Most of them are small and medium-sized hotels here. Therefore, the transformation of existing small and medium-sized hotels to meet international standards is the focus of hotel industry construction in the future.

4. State-owned hotels are separated from the original investment department, and there are more and more problems in restructuring, so it is more and more important to guard against risks. After China's entry into WTO, it is easier for international hotels to enter the China hotel market, and the competition in China hotel industry is intensified. Due to institutional reasons and insufficient motivation for reform, state-owned hotels are at a disadvantage and become more and more passive. State-owned hotels are facing the pressure of competition, reorganization, merger and bankruptcy. State-owned hotels have to be reformed in the face of pressure, and may be reorganized, sold or bankrupt in the process of reform. With the deepening of the reform, the party, government, military, police and commercial banks are decoupled from their hotels and no longer operate hotel investment business. Due to the change of ownership and the resulting changes in system and position. It will lead to overstaffing of hotel staff, unbalanced management and even performance failure. Hotel merger and bankruptcy will lead to a large number of laid-off workers and other social shocks. In this respect, it will be more and more important to guard against social risks in the process of state-owned hotels' transformation.

5. The correlation between the development level of hotel industry and the development level of human resources is getting stronger and stronger. When the hotel industry in China began to take shape, because there were fewer hotels, the focus of competition was quantity in the case of increasing demand. Therefore, the initial development level of China hotel industry is related to the number and scale of hotel facilities. With the increase of the number and scale of hotels, the perfection of facilities and the fierce competition, the quantity competition of the industry has turned to quality competition, and the development level of the industry is closely related to the development level of human resources. Because quality competition is mainly service competition, the core of service competition is the competition of personnel quality. The professional quality, technical level, professional psychological quality of hotel employees, the joint action of senior management talents and technical talents, and the formation of a well-trained talent team all affect the competitiveness of the hotel industry. The competitiveness of domestic hotels in China is not strong, and the key factor is not technical problems, but the quality of personnel.

6. The process of hotel collectivization has been gradually strengthened, and international groups have entered the China market on a large scale. In recent years, China hotel industry has begun to attach importance to collectivization. By the end of 2002, there were more than 700 hotels managed by China * * with a star rating of 7.2%. Among the top 20 hotel groups in China, internationally renowned hotel groups were selected as 12, and China Hotel Group was selected as 8. It is gratifying that the business scale of the eight hotel management companies selected by China has reached the standard of the top 300 international hotel groups, which reflects the substantial development of the hotel collectivization process in China. However, compared with international hotel groups, there is still a big gap in the state of hotel collectivization in China. According to the data of 2000, Shanghai Jinjiang Hotel Group, which ranks first in China and 57th in the world, has only 50 hotels, accounting for only 0.77% of Shengda Group. Rooms 13598, only 2.5% of the Shengda Group. Hyatt Regency Hotel/Hyatt International (USA) ranks 10, with 20 1 hotels and 867 1 rooms. Generally speaking, at present, China's hotel groups have not formed a large joint supervision team: there is no large-scale and integrated intensive management; Hotel group has high cost, bloated organization, multi-level and low efficiency; The popularity is not high, and the group advantage is not obvious. Judging from the development trend, it is difficult for hotel groups in China to form strong competition with large foreign hotel groups in a short time. Therefore, the development of China Hotel Group will restrict the position of China hotels in the international market.