One year after the new law of B&B Tokyo, the data of B&B was exposed! Analysis of income and threshold depth

Now the threshold for investing in Tokyo B&B is extremely high, and the income is extremely high.

After the new law of homestay, I have been paying attention to the homestay market in Japan.

I also use the crawler algorithm written by my friends and I to continuously capture monthly data.

In March, the data was gratifying, and I began to study this matter with great concentration.

Start a lot of analysis and research, find an intermediary architect, start a business, raise funds and so on.

In July, I went to Japan to actually inspect the land and meet with the intermediary and architects.

There is a huge vacancy in this market now.

Here, I'd like to share with you the experience and knowledge gained in these few days.

I hope I can help you.

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To understand the Tokyo B&B market, we need to understand a concept, that is, the post-B&B era.

It can be said that after the birth of airbnb, it blossomed everywhere.

The homestay industry everywhere has experienced a period of barbaric growth, which we call "the golden age of homestay".

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During that time, although the competition gradually increased, the market also gradually expanded.

The investment is small, the return is fast, and the threshold is low, so that the first person to enter makes a lot of money.

This period also cultivated the whole market and changed people's accommodation habits.

At the same time, it has also trained many excellent people-hosts.

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Just like all emerging markets, with the expansion of the market and the cultivation of user habits,

Policies were introduced, small capital players were eliminated, and large capital flowed in.

In Tokyo, since June 18, the new homestay law has been implemented.

Tokyo has officially entered the typical post-homestay market.

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That is to say, there are several months to adjust, but the implementation of the new homestay law,

Let the number of homestays in Tokyo increase from 25,000 to 201August 9 15.

Only 12280 was left, and less than half of the homestays survived.

(/kloc-delisting gradually in 0/80 days)

Originally, the B&B market in Tokyo was very good, and suddenly the supply fell below 30%.

The result is that the occupancy rate is full in an instant, and even the leisure shops at home have more than 90% occupancy rate.

It's fully booked a month or two in advance.

The occupancy algorithm of previous years was not written, starting from 20 18 and 12:

To compare these data, let's take a look at Beijing, the best performing city in China:

It can be seen that Beijing's data is actually very good. Compared with Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the average occupancy rate in the off-season is above 20.

The off-season in Beijing is around 50, and the off-season in Tokyo is still around 70, and it is very average all year round, not to mention the better ones, which are basically 100% full rent!

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On the one hand, the number of people coming to Tokyo has reached a record high.

On the one hand, because the threshold of the new law of B&B is too high,

As a result, the whole market is in short supply, and the unit price has risen one after another.

Moreover, with the shortage of the market, the government began to decentralize policies.

Reduce hotel standards, open hotel special zones, and open specific skills visas to the hotel industry.

However, because the previous threshold was too high, the growth was still relatively slow.

The market still faces a lot of vacancies.

As of August 20 19, the occupancy rate and the average profit of a single room in Tokyo are: (yen).

In other words, this market is simply crazy.

But why isn't such a good market flooded in?

The reason is: the threshold is extremely high!

Why is the threshold extremely high? The following is the analysis:

Firstly, it analyzes the mainstream of Tokyo hotel market from three aspects after the introduction of the new hotel law.

They are: 180 days' accommodation, buying a remodeled house and building your own house.

(We will not analyze the situation of B&B Special Zone for the time being, and then we will make a special analysis of Osaka B&B Special Zone or Tokyo Daejeon Special Zone. )

These three thresholds are extremely high and each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Let me analyze them one by one:

This kind of investment is small, and the income is ok, but it is unstable.

Because being a homestay is much more troublesome for the landlord than renting for a long time.

So many landlords are unwilling to do it.

And even if the landlord agrees, it is still necessary to obtain the consent of the neighborhood Committee where the house is located.

Because Japanese neighborhood committees vote, as long as there are owners who disagree, it will not work.

To tell the truth, there is.

After our investigation in Japan, we stayed in a house with many people and asked many people.

Although you are only allowed to work 180 days, you can apply for two licenses and stay in different ones after the guests arrive.

To fill 365 days, or through multiple platforms or offline transactions.

But this kind of violation is not because of ignorance of law enforcement, but because the market vacancy is too serious.

So they turn a blind eye. This is a special situation in the transitional period.

My prediction is that as long as I can survive the Olympic Games, I will immediately increase my efforts.

Although this is my personal guess,

However, I think the essence of B&B is cash flow, stability is the most important, and breaking the law is the taboo of stability.

Compared with hotel licenses, can B&B licenses be tax-free?

I don't think it's necessary until we meet a citizen host next to the sky tree.

He told us that the tax bureau invited him to have tea.

Inform him in advance that he will pay taxes in the future,

Moreover, it is necessary to trace back to the source and let him pay all the taxes that he did not pay in previous years (but the date of payment is not fixed).

So I think the profit in the next 180 days will be further compressed.

This is the most embarrassing. The conclusion is that the investment is not low, you can build your own house, but the income is only a little higher than renting a house.

The reason for this is the following：

According to the fire regulations, "the road at the entrance should be more than 4 meters for fire engines to stop",

It is almost impossible to "leave an escape route of *** 1 m on both sides".

Houses in Japan are all next to each other. In order to improve the utilization rate of land,

Normal people will not give up 1 m escape space when building a house)

A few eligible ones must be after the new law of homestay.

For those who specialize in selling hotels and investing in development.

Generally, the profit of Japanese real estate development is 30%-40%.

(If you buy your own land and spend 2 million on development, you will probably sell it for 2.6-2.8 million. )

Specially designed for hotels, the stack price is as high as 50%- 100%!

Because few people can apply for a license and the rate of return is too high,

Therefore, it has caused a price that is seriously higher than the ordinary market.

This is possible in theory.

However, due to Japan's high labor force and extremely high garbage disposal fees,

It still takes 3-6 months to renovate a homestay, and the renovation cost is high.

It won't be faster and cheaper than building your own house.

However, if you change a 180-day ordinary license plate, the rate of return and stability are not as good as those of self-built houses.

The investment volume is much larger than renting a house, but the return is not much higher.

It's too uneconomical.

The income is huge (maybe 30%-50%), which is also my choice, but it has a large volume, a long cycle and high requirements for the team.

Because since I want to build my own house, I always want to buy better land.

Then the situation in Tokyo is better. Land is expensive.

However, because I have the hotel data of Tokyo in the past three years,

So we can still find some valuable depressions, but it is really difficult for ordinary people to find them.

Second, the cycle is long. If it is made of wood, it will be faster and more compressed.

Maybe six months' development is possible. But also, since we want to build ourselves, we always want to build something better.

RC not only has good sound insulation, but also saves energy when it is warm in winter and cool in summer. RC can also split property rights.

It means that the completed house can be sold according to the number of rooms.

However, if RC or iron frame is built, it will take 8- 12 months, plus the time for designing and applying for a license.

It will be 10- 14 months. This cycle may be longer.

Self-built houses are different from renting and changing houses, and the requirements for land are very high.

Need to meet: (1) construction application requirements (2) hotel license requirements (3) rate of return requirements.

The rate of return is good, because we have data in hand, which is very easy to infer.

The requirements of building application and hotel license are very detailed, and I am afraid that I will find that I don't meet the requirements after buying it, or even I can't build it.

Fortunately, our architects are experienced and can rule out those who can't.

And use this design method to improve the space utilization.

But even so, we have seen hundreds of pieces of land.

Only by choosing a few pieces of land that can guarantee Gai Lou, a license and a high rate of return.

It's too difficult.

Because since you want to build it yourself, you have to rely on products from scratch.

There are also differences between hotels. Because the needs of hotel customers are completely different from B&B.

For example, the number of family trips should be taken into account, and the design, lodging atmosphere and special experience of the homestay are very important.

Especially the architectural appearance, a good architectural appearance can directly promote your explosion.

So you don't have to worry about the occupancy rate and unit price for more than ten years.

So this involves the hotel's product officer (similar to the product manager).

It needs a team that knows the hotel to design from the beginning, even according to the data and customer base.

This requires the ability of many talents, otherwise the advantages of self-built houses will not be reflected.

In addition to product officers, there are architects, administrators and later operating officers.

Compared with changing rooms or renting their own houses, because of the large area, the requirements for the team are also high.

In other words, self-built houses have huge income space.

But they are all based on a team that understands products and operations, and designs explosions from scratch.

It also took us several months to form our current team.

Including architects, are all specialized designers, with small space and low cost, and the cases they have had are perfect.

Executives who handle legal affairs, taxation and license applications are also important. This industry is a mixed bag.

It took us a lot of time to determine the reliable partner now.

So it's hard to find a team.

Tokyo B&B market has entered the post-B&B era. If you can survive, the profit is high, the risk is small, and it is stable.

Moreover, the market vacancy is still huge. Judging from the growth rate, it will take several years to return to before the new law 18.

However, the threshold is high, there is not much room for petty bourgeoisie, and there is not much room for capital without finding a good team.

The above is written by Mr. Mao Ben, and the copyright of the data and content belongs to him, starting from Zhihu.