Ctrip and STR released the big data report of the hotel industry, and Tianjin performed brilliantly.

"The glory of 20 18 is gone. The occupancy rate and average house price of the hotel industry in China plummeted by 0.8% and 2.7% respectively, forcing the income of each saleable house to drop by 3.5% year-on-year. " Liu Bo, manager of hotel data provider STR North Asia, said in a report that under "sadness", Tianjin's data this year is quite bright. In the first seven months of 20 19, stimulated by strong demand, the occupancy rate of hotels in Tianjin increased by 5.0%, the average house price increased by 1.9%, the income per saleable room increased by 7.0%, and the room income increased by 7.5%.

Mainland hotel performance polarization

According to the report data, the average occupancy rate (OCC) of the national hotel industry in the first seven months of 2065438+2009 was 65.35%, down 0.8% year-on-year; The average house price (ADR) was 45 1.29 yuan, down 2.7% year on year, and the income per room (RevPAR) was 2949 1 yuan, down 3.5% year on year. Judging from the current situation, although the performance of the hotel industry in China Mainland has recovered strongly since 20 17, this momentum has not been sustained for a long time.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the growth rate of market demand has slowed down. 1February STR historical moving average data shows that since 20 12, the hotel market supply in Chinese mainland has continued to grow, and the number of hotels has been increasing, but the growth rate has narrowed year by year; After experiencing great ups and downs, the market demand increased steadily from 20 16, and gradually decreased after reaching the peak at 20 18. After the second half of 20 17, the income of each saleable house has been continuously improved driven by the occupancy rate and average house price. From the second half of 20 18, it decreased obviously until the last four months.

Judging from the data of various places, several families are happy and several families are worried, and the differences between different places are very obvious. Although the influx of new supply in most cities is obvious, only the demand in Wuhan, Dalian and Shenyang decreased year-on-year. The occupancy rate in Wuhan and Dalian dropped more obviously. Although ADR in Shenzhen decreased by 10.3%, the demand was still there, accounting for over 82.4%. Shanghai's demand growth is not obvious, and it ranks fourth among first-tier cities.

Figure 1: Year-on-year change rate of occupancy rate and average house price in major cities

The convergence of consumption upgrading and economic uncertainty in China makes the hotel industry in Chinese mainland seriously polarized. In addition to the market performance of luxury and mid-range budget hotels, the sales revenue of ultra-high-end, high-end and mid-high-end hotels (traditional five-star, four-star and three-star hotels) has declined to varying degrees, and the decline of ultra-high-end and high-end hotels has exceeded 4.0%.

Figure 2: Year-on-year change rate of income of saleable houses from July 2065438+08 to July 20 19.

The reason is that under the background of consumption upgrading, good services and products are sought after by consumers; But for price-sensitive consumers, the economical mode of travel will be the first consideration.

Tianjin hotel industry performed brilliantly.

Focusing on Tianjin, in the first seven months of 20 19, the occupancy rate of hotels in Tianjin increased by 5.0%, the average house price increased by 1.9%, the income per saleable room increased by 7.0%, and the room income increased by 7.5%. The overall data is very eye-catching.

1February STR historical moving average data shows that the supply of Tianjin hotel market has been increasing continuously since 20 1 1, but the growth rate has narrowed year by year. After ups and downs, the market demand increment gradually picked up in the second half of 20 18; After several twists and turns, the income of each saleable house showed a downward trend after reaching a high level in 20 18 years, and the increase gradually increased after 20 19 years.

The data of hotels in Tianjin also confirms the above situation. In 20 19, the double indicators of hotels at all levels increased, but only the occupancy rate of high-end hotels decreased, resulting in a negative growth in the income of each saleable house.

Figure 3: From 2017 to 20 19, the year-on-year change rate of saleable housing income in the first seven months.

Comparing the data of Tianjin urban area and Binhai New Area, we can find that the hotel performance in urban area is better than that in Binhai New Area, no matter the occupancy rate or the average house price. The performance of city hotels on weekends is as good as usual. It should be noted that the RevPAR of the whole city dropped significantly on Sunday, and the challenges increased.

By analyzing the performance of holidays in Tianjin, we can see that leisure tourism has promoted the sustained growth of holiday economy. From 20 15 to 20 17, the year-on-year growth rate of saleable housing income declined to varying degrees, but remained at a high level. From 20 17 to now, the growth rate has also been greatly improved. During New Year's Day and National Day, the year-on-year growth rate reached more than 100%, which was better than other holidays.

Figure 4: Year-on-year change rate of income of saleable houses on holidays in Tianjin.

In terms of check-in days, on average, 765,438+0% customers stayed for 65,438+0 days, and 23% customers stayed for 2-3 days, which was the same as last year. From the point of business circle, 35% customers prefer to choose Binjiang Road, Xiaobailou, Wudao Scenic Area and hotels around Tianjin Railway Station, Guwen Street and Italian Style District, while 65,438+02% customers will choose Meijiang Exhibition and Olympic Sports Center. Interestingly, it can be seen from the source analysis that 50% of customers choose to place orders in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.

The development of high-speed rail is expected to stimulate the hotel industry in Tianjin.

Figure 5: From 2065438+09 to 2025, China has signed up for new rooms.

STR data show that as of 20 19 and 2019-July 2025, Hainan registered 2,396 rooms, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei registered 28,722 rooms, Sichuan-Chongqing registered 40,200 rooms, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao registered 562 rooms, and Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai registered 676,990 rooms.

Among the 28,722 hotels signed by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, high-end and ultra-high-end hotels account for 53%, and 39% of hotels will open before the end of 2020. In terms of geographical distribution, nearly half of them are Hebei, and Beijing is slightly higher than Tianjin.

Finally, Liu Bo, on the whole, the increase of high-speed rail lines in the north is expected to drive the demand of Tianjin market, and the performance can be expected. The hotel industry in Tianjin can make better use of the opportunity in the period of high demand, seek a breakthrough in refined management, increase the number of foreign tourists' stay days and create more income with the help of night economy.