Annual Development Report of Commercial Real Estate Industry in China: Expected Integration of Online and Offline

The Commercial Real Estate Research Association of the All-China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce under the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and RET Ruiyide jointly released the Annual Development Report of China Commercial Real Estate Industry 20 18/20 19, taking stock of the representative events in the commercial real estate field in 20 18 and looking forward to the development trend of the industry in 20 19. Wang Yongping, the chief expert of the report and president of the Commercial Real Estate Research Association of the All-China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce, pointed out that the biggest change in the current consumer market is not the so-called "upgrade" or "downgrade", but the obvious classification of the consumer market puts forward higher requirements for commercial operation innovation.

Affected by the macro-economy, consumers are more cautious in consumption, coupled with the lack of innovation in the business itself, and the channel diversion is more obvious. In 20 19, the industry market expectation generally declined, and the expansion of new projects tended to be conservative. The traditional growth engines of shopping centers such as restaurants and cinemas are weak, and the development of new retail is not satisfactory. The industry has entered a new era of "no innovation and no business", which urgently needs the replacement of innovative formats and models.

The online and offline integration represented by Ali's shareholding in Real Home will enter the multi-dimensional deep integration stage of technology integration, operation integration and cultural integration after the completion of equity integration. The landing of new digital stores is expected to continue to accelerate, and new retail may appear. The more advanced business model, the industry is also facing the possibility of reshuffle. Although the huge loss of Yonghui super species has caused some concerns about new retail and more doubts about the new retail profit model, there are still general expectations for online and offline integration industries.

Further reading: 20 18 Eight phenomena of commercial real estate industry in China.

First of all, revitalize the stock of high-quality properties to meet the asset securitization fever.

Representative events: Guangzhou Jiazheng Plaza, Beijing Guo Rui Shopping Center and Beijing Heshenghui released CMBS/ REITS products.

Reasons for concern: In 20 18, commercial asset transactions were unprecedentedly active, and a number of landmark commercial projects were concentrated in the market, and commercial asset securitization ushered in a new climax. In September, the "Guangfa Hengjin-Jiazheng Enterprise Group Jiazheng Plaza Asset Support Special Plan" with Guangzhou Jiazheng Plaza as the target property was successfully issued, with a total scale of 7.3 billion yuan, making it the largest CMBS in 20 18. In addition, many high-quality properties such as Beijing Guo Rui Shopping Center, Beijing Hadgate Plaza, Beijing Heshenghui, Beijing Century Jinyuan, Suzhou New Garden Center and Shenzhen Longgang Vanke Plaza have also been successfully approved or issued securitization products. Under the background that the financial leverage of real estate is generally too high, the securitization of commercial assets has more practical significance and is also an important symbol of the internationalization and standardization of commercial real estate in China.

Second, the bulk asset transactions are uneven, and the value of assets is highlighted at the operational level.

Representative event: Shimao Gongsan auction, Beijing Yingke Center changed hands again.

Reasons for concern: At the end of 2065438+2008, there were two commercial assets transactions in Beijing market that attracted people's attention. One case is the auction of Shimao Gongsan assets under LeTV Holdings. At the beginning of June 5438+February, Ali website made a pre-auction announcement with an estimated price of 3.289 billion yuan, while the starting price was only 2.302 billion yuan; Another case is that the project of Yingke Center was sold at a high price of 654.38+005 billion yuan, breaking the record of the transaction amount of commercial properties in Beijing. Behind this cold and hot shows that the capital market recognizes the operational value of assets.

Third, new retail is not popular, and online and offline expectations are integrated.

Representative events: super species lost money, fresh box horses encountered a "label door", box horses opened for business, and Meituan officially entered new retail.

Reason for concern: In June 5438+February, Yonghui Yunchuang, the main company of the "new retail pioneer" super species, broke out with a cumulative loss of 654.38 billion, so that Yonghui announced that it would be stripped out of the business system of listed companies. Previously, the "label door incident" that modified the shelf life of food was revealed, and the box pony joining business was popular. 7 Fresh in JD.COM has also been reshuffled, which makes the industry generally form the impression that the new retail is applauded and not popular. Although the new retail pioneer experiment was frustrated, it obviously did not give up the exploration of business innovation. The super species with huge losses have indicated that they will continue to develop independently of listed companies. Meituan upgraded its fresh supermarket brand "Palm Fish Fresh" to "Elephant Fresh", and at the same time accelerated the pace of store expansion. 7FRESH started again after personnel reorganization in JD.COM, and its channels have sunk to third-and fourth-tier cities. The pace of new retail has not stopped, and the expectation of online and offline integration still exists.

Fourth, physical business plus data intelligence, technology-driven operation has become a * * * knowledge.

Representative events: Kaide Next-Ten, Baolong Creative Lab and Haidilao Unmanned Restaurant were born.

Reasons for concern: Shopping centers represented by Joy City, Impression City and Aegean Sea have built their own commercial technology companies, and some have added the post of chief technology officer, paying more attention to the leading role of technology in commercial operations. As the leader of commercial real estate, Kaide initiated the mode of "exploring the next ten", a new commercial species. Baolong teamed up with JD.COM to build a "Baolong Creative Lab" across the border, connecting with new retail, involving children, restaurants, supermarkets, digital products, etc., including details of life, and integrating online consumption to realize traffic introduction. At the same time, Baolong also invested in * * * following service robots, which can be widely used in shopping centers, commercial complexes, large retailers and theme parks. The unmanned restaurant in Haidilao has become a punching place for online celebrities. In the past, the entity business expected the third-party technology company to provide services, and now it is investing in the research and development of commercial data technology, which shows the urgent desire for better commercial applications.

Verb (the abbreviation of verb) stock business has been upgraded and transformed, and urban renewal has created new business opportunities.

Representative events: Shanghai Shimao Plaza, Beijing Plaza and Shenzhen Li Yin Center reopened.

Reason for concern: 20 18, wonderful sequel to commercial projects in several cities. The "Beijing Plaza", located in the core area of Qianmen, Beijing, has been fully opened, and many innovative formats such as Muji Experience Hotel, Starbucks flagship store and Page One flagship store have emerged, subverting the outdated impression of consumers on Qianmen business for many years. In September, Shimao Group's Shanghai Shimao Plaza reopened. Its strong sense of fashion and innovation attracted a large number of young guests, and its performance doubled before and after the transformation. 20 18, several influential renewal projects were closed at the same time. Joy City acquired the Beijing Daxing Fire Temple project and decided to turn it into a new product line "Joy of Spring Breeze". Kaide bought the tallest Twin Towers in Shanghai at a high price of 65.438+028 billion, and plans to build a third Raffles in Shanghai. With the development of incremental business, the cost is getting bigger and bigger, the cycle is getting longer and longer, and the location is getting more and more biased. The renovation of stock business is becoming a new business opportunity.

6. Commercial real estate investment is generally overheated, and the core location is still sought after.

Representative event: Hang Lung and other mainstream commercial developers bid for the most expensive commercial plot in Hangzhou.

Reason for concern: In May, Hong Kong Hang Lung Real Estate, a well-known commercial real estate developer, won the Baijingfang plot next to Hangzhou Tower, the core business district of Hangzhou, at a price of173 million and a high premium rate of18%, and Hangzhou will welcome the first hang lung plaza. On the day of bidding, in addition to Hang Lung, well-known real estate companies such as China Resources Sun Hung Kai, Ali Chengtou, New World, Wharf and Yintai participated in the bidding, and the competition was once fierce. Under the background of over-investment in commercial real estate, the reason why the auction of this commercial land in Hangzhou is so sought after does not mean that the investment fever of commercial real estate has resurfaced, which is mainly based on the case advantages of the project in urban magnitude and location, and the traditional investment concept of good commercial resilience in the core area is still recognized.

Vii. Disputes over consumption downgrade IV. The commercial potential lies in activation.

Representative events: Pinduoduo's listing and Ali's shareholding in Huitong.

Reasons for concern: Pinduo, a city surrounded by rural areas, went public in the United States in July and achieved great commercial success. Many people in the physical business attribute its success to the so-called "consumption degradation" under the economic downturn. In fact, reports issued by authoritative departments such as the Ministry of Commerce show that the trend of consumption upgrading is irreversible. Pinduoduo's success is largely due to the gathering and upgrading of the bottom consumption through the mobile Internet platform. In addition, Huitongda, a small town e-commerce platform, also received an investment of 4.5 billion yuan from Ali. The sinking of e-commerce platform not only activated the huge consumption potential of small and medium-sized cities, but also boosted the confidence of physical business development in small and medium-sized cities.

Eight, the difficulty in attracting investment in shopping centers is outstanding.

Representative events: Guangzhou K 1 1, Changsha IFS, Kunming Joy City, Xiamen China Resources Vientiane City and other projects opened as scheduled.

Reasons for concern: The rapid development of commercial real estate over the years has led to excessive competition in shopping centers. In addition, due to the downward impact of the macroeconomic situation, the leasing capacity of many brands has declined, and new projects generally face difficulties in attracting investment, capital and opening. Even first-tier cities and large central enterprises have encountered the same problem. According to the sampling data of 20 18, less than 60% of the shopping centers with an area of over 50,000 square meters actually opened as scheduled. Well-known commercial real estate developers such as Wanda, China Resources, Power India, Joy City and Longhu. By virtue of its comprehensive strength such as brand reputation, professional team and financial advantages, all self-operated, self-built or entrusted projects have been opened as scheduled, and some of them have become new benchmarks for local commercial upgrading.