Looking for an English article about the economic development of the five BRICS countries and the prospects for the future development of the BRICS countries!!

The traditional BRICS logo "BRIC" (BRIC) refers to the English initials of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Since the word is similar to the English word brick, it is called "BRIC". After South Africa joins, its English word will become "BRICS" and renamed "BRICS". On April 14, 2011, the third BRICS leaders' meeting will be held in Sanya, China. The leaders of the five countries will discuss how to coordinate and respond to major international issues, how to deepen and expand cooperation between them, and how to strengthen the BRICS cooperation mechanism. etc. questions.

It is generally believed that the first person to propose the concept of "BRIC" was Goldman Sachs in the United States. In October 2003, Goldman Sachs published a report entitled "Dreaming with BRICs on the Global Economic Report." The report estimates that by 2050, the world economic structure will undergo a dramatic reshuffle. The new six major economies in the world will become China, the United States, India, Japan, Brazil, and Russia. The term "BRIC" was first coined by Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs in 2001. "BRIC" refers to the English initials of the BRICS leaders

Brazil, Russia, India and China. Because the word is similar to the English word Brick, it is called the "BRIC". There are huge differences among the BRIC countries both geographically and in endowments of production factors. For example, India is the second most populous country in the world after China, has a competitive population structure, and has a high household consumption rate; Russia has rapidly accumulated national capital by relying on the export of oil and natural gas in the 21st century, but due to The industrial structure is too heavily biased towards the energy industry, causing it to experience the most severe economic recession among the BRIC countries during the financial crisis; Brazil has rich and diverse natural resources, leading industrial technology and scientific level, and a relatively developed financial market. , economic development has multi-engine characteristics. This difference has led to the divergence of the development of the "BRICS" in the post-crisis era. Data show that the year-on-year GDP growth rates of Brazil, Russia, India and China in the third quarter of 2010 reached 6.7, 2.7, 8.9 and 9.6 respectively. Except for Russia, the economic growth rates of the other three countries are much higher than those of developed economies such as the United States, Europe, and Japan during the same period. According to the latest forecast, the economic growth rates of the "BRICS" in 2011 are 5, 4.2, 9 and 10 respectively. BRIC stock markets have had mixed performances this year. As of December 20, 2010, Brazil's Sao Paulo BOVESPA index fell by 1.93, Russia's RTSI index rose by 20.42, India's Bombay Sensitive Index rose by 13.88, and China's Shanghai Composite Index fell by 12.94. The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) BRIC Index has a cumulative gain of 3.46 this year, lower than the 11.84 gain of the S&P 500 Index during the same period. At this meeting, the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism was initially formed. After discussions among the four countries, it was decided to absorb South Africa to join and form the "BRICS". It just so happens that the first letter of South Africa is S, which happens to be the plural of BRIC. It seems that there is some divine will. Now, as the leaders of the five countries gather together for the first time, there is naturally a lot to talk about. The top issue is undoubtedly the economy. After the financial crisis, the risk warning of a second dip in the world economy has not been lifted, and central banks of various countries are facing pressure to raise interest rates. At this moment, the leaders of the five countries can coordinate economic policies and deepen economic and trade cooperation, which will not only benefit the economic development of each country, but also It is also good for the world economy. Today, economic issues are the main focus among the five countries. I am afraid that for a long time in the future, economic issues will also take the lead. It will be more about cooperation, communication, and coordination. They will make their voices heard in the international community and occupy more say. However, the distance creates a gap. The power of independence still has a long way to go. It's not an exaggeration to say that. The five countries have 30% of the world's territory and 42% of the population.

According to the "Blue Book of Emerging Economies: Economic and Social Development Report of BRICS Countries (2011)" published by Social Science Literature Press, based on market exchange rate estimates, the total GDP (gross domestic product) of the BRICS countries (excluding South Africa) will be From 15% of the world's share in 2008 to 22% in 2015, the total economic output of the four countries will exceed that of the United States, and the GDP increase of the four countries will also account for 1/3 of the world's increase.

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After introduction

The popularity of the "BRIC" concept made O'Neill overjoyed, so he struck while the iron was hot and launched the so-called "Golden Diamond" "Eleven" includes 11 emerging economies including Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Korea, Vietnam, Turkey, Philippines, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran and Bangladesh. BRICS

Subsequently, HSBC also joined the "emerging chorus" and proposed that the future global economy will belong to the "CIVETS", namely Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa. The country has an enviable demographic structure and huge growth potential. Essia, chief economist of BBVA, introduced the concept of "Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies (EAGLEs)" to a reporter from the China Securities Journal. The "shortlist" is selected year by year based on its contribution to global economic growth. In addition to the BRIC countries, the list now includes South Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Egypt and Taiwan. Compared with the "11 Golden and Diamond Countries" and the "6 Civet Cat Countries", the leading emerging economies are based on the absolute value of economic increment, emphasize dynamic concepts, and have clear standards. The lively "emerging chorus" is illustrating a trend; that is, networking promotes the process of globalization, reduces transaction costs for global investors, and also changes the learning curve of economic development. The post-crisis era has given emerging economies a broader stage for performance, causing Japan's "single-flock" model of guiding industrial transfer in the Asia-Pacific region in the second half of the last century to gradually transform into a "multi-flock" model with multiple blooms. This has also pushed up the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which measures the stock markets of emerging economies. As of December 20, its cumulative increase this year has reached 12.28, which is much higher than the 7.82 increase of the MSCI World Index, which measures the stock market performance of developed economies.

BRICS intensifies

China, Russia, India and Pakistan have unanimously agreed to absorb South Africa into the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism as a full member. More emerging economies may join this cooperation mechanism in the future. 2010 was undoubtedly a lucky year for South Africa. In the middle of the year, the World Cup with the sound of "vuvuzelas" reminded fans around the world of this vibrant African country; and at the end of the year, another gift gave South Africa the important symbol of the "Fifth BRIC" . On December 28, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu confirmed at a regular press conference in Beijing that China, as the rotating chairman of the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism, had unanimously agreed with Russia, India, and Brazil to absorb South Africa into the cooperation as a full member. mechanism. Jiang Yu said that Chinese President Hu Jintao has sent a letter to South African President Zuma, inviting him to attend the third official meeting of "BRICS" leaders to be held in China early next year. Eight years after the concept was proposed, in June 2009, the leaders of the four countries met for the first time in Yekaterinburg, Russia, and the "BRIC" evolved into an economic cooperation mechanism. In April 2010, the second "BRIC" summit was held in Brazil, and cooperation among the four countries took a further step. With the gradual formation of the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism, the international influence of the "BRICS" as representatives of the world's emerging economies is also increasing. According to the "International Economic Outlook" released by the International Monetary Fund in October 2010, based on market exchange rate estimates, the total GDP of the "BRIC" countries will increase from 15% of the world's share in 2008 to 22% in 2015. By then, the economies of the four countries will The total will exceed that of the United States, and the GDP growth of the four countries will also account for one-third of the world's growth. Seeing the huge development potential of the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism, South Africa, as the largest economy in southern Africa, has always hoped to join this mechanism.

The South African government has been actively promoting this year, and South African President Zuma has been lobbying the BRIC countries since the beginning of the year. He visited Brazil, India, Russia and China from April to August this year. Zuma said that cooperation with these emerging market countries will bring opportunities for South Africa's economic growth. South Africa's "Business Daily" believes that as the most influential African country in the world, South Africa's participation in the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism can better represent the interests of African countries and seek greater international cooperation space for Africa's economic development. Some experts have questioned whether South Africa meets the criteria for a "BRICS" country. The "BRIC" countries are based on the rapid economic growth and relatively large population of these countries. According to World Bank data in 2009, South Africa's economic scale ranks 31st in the world, less than that of the "BRICS". A quarter of the economy of Russia, the smallest of the “Quad”. However, some analysts said that in view of South Africa's important role in Africa, inviting South Africa to "join" will be a win-win move for South Africa and the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism. Africa is now one of the regions with the fastest economic growth in the world, with economic growth expected to reach 5% this year. O'Neill, who first proposed the concept of "BRIC", recently wrote in the Financial Times that there are currently more than 40 countries on the African continent, and no single country among them can be compared with the "BRIC". But if these more than forty countries are considered as a whole, the growth potential of the African continent's economic scale is comparable to that of the BRIC countries. South Africa is the largest economy and one of the most influential countries in Africa. Its GDP accounts for about one-third of the total economic output of sub-Saharan African countries, and it plays an important leading role in regional economic development. Data show that South Africa is Africa's largest energy producer and consumer, as well as the largest producer of gold, platinum and palladium. Its position in the world market cannot be ignored. Moreover, South African related companies play a pivotal role in Africa's finance, power, telecommunications, construction, agriculture and other industries. It is also an African representative in many important international organizations. It was once the only African member of the Group of Eight and Developing Countries Leaders' Dialogue (G8 5) and is currently the only African member of the G20. Precisely because South Africa is the representative of the African continent in many aspects, its participation will further expand the international influence of the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism and become the gateway for the "BRICS" to enter Africa. Some analysts pointed out that many South African companies have branches in southern African countries, which are geographically close and have similar customs. They have the advantages of fast information and low transaction costs when investing in these relatively underdeveloped countries. If the investment and trade of the four countries can be transited through South Africa, the rate of return will be significantly improved. In addition, economic cooperation will also drive political cooperation between the BRIC countries and African countries, thereby enhancing the voice of emerging market countries in dealing with international issues. The "BRIC" countries are about to become history, and a more broadly representative "BRICS" will enter the international stage. As the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism becomes increasingly mature, more emerging economies may join in the future, and the "BRICS" with a greatly increased "weight" will play a more important role in international political and economic affairs. .

Reason for the change

Although this move was first proposed by Russia and made after full consultation among the four countries, inviting South Africa to join the "BRIC" is more Focus on geopolitical considerations rather than the needs of economic relations. Although South Africa is the largest economy on the African continent (at the same time, China is also South Africa's largest trading partner), its economy is still small. In 2009, South Africa's total population was 49.32 million, and its GDP was US$288.848 billion, an increase of 4.6% from US$276.274 billion in 2008. The South African government predicts that South Africa's GDP growth rate will reach 3 in 2010, including The World Cup in South Africa contributed 0.5 to economic growth. South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan recently predicted that South Africa's GDP growth rates from 2011 to 2013 will be 3.5, 4.1 and 4.4 respectively.

South Africa's economic size is far less than 30% of that of Russia, the smallest among the BRIC countries, and South Africa's economic growth rate is also lower than the average level of ASEAN. On the other hand, in terms of per capita GDP, South Africa has reached US$5,857 in 2009, far exceeding the average level of emerging economies and entering the ranks of relatively developed countries. Therefore, the invitation to South Africa to join the "BRICS" should not be considered from the perspective of economic development level.

Change Forecast

[5] If we follow the original intention of Jim O'Neill, who first invented the term "BRIC", and look at it from the perspective of population size and economic development speed, Indonesia is more qualified than South Africa to be the next country invited to join the BRICS group. Indonesia is the largest economy in ASEAN, whether in terms of population size, economic scale or economic growth rate; Indonesia far exceeds South Africa. More importantly, the reason why the "BRIC" countries have received global attention and attention is because they are the "leaders" of emerging economies. From the perspective of the country's economic development stage, Indonesia is an emerging economy, while South Africa is It is already a relatively economically developed country. Major Countries

China

Logo of BRICS Countries

China is the most dynamic economic region in the world, attracting the highest amount of foreign investment and becoming the world's largest enterprise. The group’s production base. With 1.3 billion residents, China is the most populous country in the world. Its abundant, cheap, and reliable labor force drives China's economic prosperity. In addition to its unparalleled price advantage, the quality of its employees is also constantly improving. However, there are also crises lurking beneath the engine of world economic growth. Although the Central Bank of China has enacted loan restrictions, the hidden danger of economic overheating has not been eliminated; the huge gap between urban and rural areas and personal income has also caused imbalances in development and endangered social stability; environmental pollution has worsened. China's stock market lacks an independent and effective monitoring mechanism; a series of problems such as insufficient raw materials and energy have created bottlenecks for the Chinese economy.

Brazil

Brazil’s GDP ranks first in Latin America. In addition to the traditional agricultural economy, the production and service industries are also increasingly prosperous, and it has a natural advantage in raw material resources. . Brazil has the world's highest reserves of iron, copper, nickel, manganese and bauxite. In addition, emerging industries such as communications and finance are also on the rise. Cardoso, the former president of Brazil and leader of the Workers’ Party, formulated a set of economic development strategies that laid the foundation for success in subsequent economic revitalization. This set of economic reform policies was later carried forward by current President Lula. Its core contents are: introducing a flexible exchange rate system; reforming the medical and pension systems; and streamlining the government official system. However, some critics believe that what succeeds is also what fails. The constant corruption and bribery within the Workers' Party has shaken the foundation of the current government's rule to a large extent. Is the economic boom in this fertile land of South America sustainable? The risks behind the opportunities are also huge. Long-term investors based on the Brazilian market therefore need strong nerves and enough patience.

India

India is the most populous democratic country in the world. BRICS comics

[6]. More than 6,000 listed companies also make its stock market unprecedentedly large. grow. In the past 20 years, the Indian economy has grown steadily at an average annual rate of 5.6, and behind the economic front is an army of high-quality jobs. According to preliminary statistics, Western companies are becoming more and more attractive in the eyes of India's approximately 23 million college graduates. A quarter of the 1,000 largest companies in the United States use software developed in India. The Indian pharmaceutical industry also occupies an important position in the global market. 40% of the world's "generic drugs" (drugs and pharmaceuticals that have expired patent period) are produced in India. This industry has driven personal disposable income to rise rapidly at a double-digit growth rate. At the same time, a new trend has emerged in Indian society. A group of middle class people who value enjoyment and are willing to consume. In addition, some large infrastructure projects, such as the 6,000-kilometer-long highway network and the booming export trade, have also provided a strong successor force for economic development.

Of course, the Indian economy also has weaknesses that cannot be ignored, such as insufficient infrastructure, high fiscal deficit, and excessive dependence on energy and raw materials. In terms of politics, changes in social ethics and moral concepts and tensions in Kashmir may trigger economic turmoil.

Russia

The Russian economy, which has gone through the 1998 financial crisis, is like a phoenix flying out of the ashes. In the recent international meeting, Russian President Medvedev arrived at Sanya Phoenix International The airport

In terms of credit rating, it is rated as investment grade by Standard & Poor's, a well-known securities research institution. Rising oil and gas prices have undoubtedly given Russia's economy a new wing. The mining and production of these two major industrial bloodlines control one-fifth of today's national production, and create 50% of the export trade output value and 40% of the national income. In addition, Russia is also the largest producer of palladium, platinum and titanium. Somewhat like the situation in Brazil, the biggest threat to the Russian economy lies in politics. Although the Putin government has successfully increased the gross national product by 30% during its five-year term, and the disposable national income has also increased significantly, the lack of democracy demonstrated by the government authorities in the handling of the Yukos Oil Company case has become a long-term problem. The poison of investment is like an invisible sword of Damocles. Although Russia is vast and rich in resources and energy, if it lacks the necessary institutional reforms to effectively curb corruption, the government will still not be able to sit back and relax in the face of future development trends. If Russia is not satisfied with being just a gas station for the world economy from a long-term perspective, its top priority must be to commit to the modernization reform process and improve production efficiency. Investors should pay particularly close attention to current economic policy changes, which is another important factor affecting the Russian financial market in addition to raw material prices. BRICS Russia’s two major challenges: suppressing inflation and reducing deficits. As the economy continues to recover, how to ensure sustained and healthy economic growth this year is the Russian government’s top priority. Judging from Russia's economic situation, suppressing inflation and reducing deficits are the two major challenges currently facing the government. The Russian economy continued to recover in 2010. However, after entering the second half of the year, affected by factors such as the weakening recovery momentum of the world's major economies and a rare domestic drought, the economic growth slowed down, and the annual economic growth was only 4%. Driven by rising international energy prices, the Russian economy grew by 4.4% year-on-year in the first two months of 2011. The government expects the economy to grow by about 4.2% this year. Affected by last year's drought, the price of agricultural products (000061) soared, leading to an increase in food prices. The inflation rate last year reached 8.8%, far exceeding the government's expectations. The inflation situation this year remains severe. Driven by rising food prices, Russia's consumer price level rose by 9.7% in February compared with the same period last year. Russian President Medvedev requires that the annual inflation rate be controlled at 4% to 5% in the next three years. To achieve this goal, the Russian government started by stabilizing grain prices and began using grain reserves to intervene in the market in February this year. In addition, the Central Bank of Russia announced at the end of February that it would raise the refinancing interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. This was the first interest rate increase by the Russian Central Bank since April 2009, sending a signal to the market to moderately tighten credit. Although a variety of measures have been taken to curb inflation, experts generally believe that Russia's future inflation levels will remain high. Russia's Ministry of Economic Development expects inflation to be between 6% and 7% this year. However, Dmitry Belousov, chief expert of the Russian Center for Macroeconomic Research and Short-term Forecasting, believes that even if there are no natural disasters this summer, Russia's inflation rate will remain at a level of 8% to 8.3%. Famous Russian scholar Yevgeny Yashin believes that in order to stimulate economic development, the government has to increase fiscal spending and increase borrowing, which will further aggravate inflationary pressure, and the annual inflation rate may reach 8.9%. In terms of fiscal deficit, Russia's fiscal deficit last year was 1.795 trillion rubles (approximately 63.9 billion U.S. dollars), accounting for approximately 3.9% of GDP. The Ministry of Finance believes that due to the current favorable conditions in the international oil market, the deficit level this year may be lower than 2%. Finance Minister Kudrin said that if oil prices reach the level of US$100 per barrel, Russia is expected to achieve fiscal balance in 2014.

As the only African member of the BRICS cooperation mechanism, South Africa is also the gateway for BRICS trade and investment into southern Africa. With the help of the sales and production network of South African enterprises in Southern Africa, products and services from BRICS countries can enter the 15 countries and regions of the Southern African Development Community in a timely and convenient manner. South Africa's participation in the BRICS cooperation mechanism gives emerging economies an African voice and makes them more representative. BRICS member countries have become the largest trading partners of Africa and South Africa. Other BRICS countries have recognized the huge development potential of the African regional market and will seize the opportunity. In the coming months, Africa will establish free trade areas between regional development economic cooperation institutions, including the Southern African Development Community, the Eastern and Southern African Development Market and the West African Economic Community. Africa is pleased that other BRICS partners will regard South Africa as a "springboard" to enter the African market and are willing to provide advice on economic development opportunities in Africa. Enhanced willingness to cooperate

The fruitful cooperation of BRICS countries not only safeguards the interests of developing countries, but also brings important development opportunities to the member countries themselves, and increases the willingness of member countries to further strengthen cooperation. . Orlov, director of the Institute of International Studies at the Moscow Institute of International Relations, believes that the BRICS cooperation mechanism is of great significance to Russia. With the gradual development of this mechanism, Russia can use it to enhance its political influence on the international stage. objectively enhance the weight of Russia’s dialogue with the United States and the European Union. "This cooperation mechanism will also enable Russia to gain new financial and economic and trade markets, allowing Russia to not only act as an energy exporter, but also to strengthen cooperation with other member states in modern technologies such as nuclear energy, aerospace, military, etc." Orr. Love said. Mattola, CEO of the International Marketing Council of South Africa, said that joining the BRICS cooperation mechanism will help South Africa attract more foreign investment, expand trade scale, and further enhance South Africa's international competitiveness. South Africa's "Post-Guardian" published an article stating that the inclusion of South Africa in the BRICS cooperation mechanism will enhance South Africa's status in international politics and increase its voice on the international stage, which will be conducive to its political rise.

Improved strength

At the beginning of 2011, two shocking news came from the world economic field: China surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy, and Brazil jumped to the world's seventh largest economy. economy. In addition, the "Blue Book of Emerging Economies" recently released in Beijing predicts that the total economic output of the BRIC countries will exceed that of the United States in 2015, and GDP growth will account for one-third of the world's growth. As the proportion of the BRICS countries in the global economy continues to increase, the influence of this mechanism on the international political and economic stage will be further enhanced. Countries outside the mechanism will surely increase cooperation with countries within the mechanism. This will enhance the international status of this mechanism. At the same time, it should be noted that challenges and opportunities coexist. The BRICS cooperation mechanism has just gone through three years, and the cooperation experience is not very rich. There is still room for improvement in the cooperation mechanism. In addition, there are still some misunderstandings and differences within the BRICS countries due to historical or practical interests. All these require member states to strengthen dialogue and exchanges, truly achieve mutual respect, mutual understanding and enhance mutual trust, and achieve the purpose of mutually beneficial cooperation on this basis. BRICS Map

Brazil is the largest developing country in the Southern Hemisphere, accounting for more than one-third of Latin America in terms of land area and population. Brazil's economy has continued to grow rapidly in recent years, with a growth rate of 5.1% in 2008, a GDP of US$1.23 trillion, and a per capita GDP of US$6,485. Brazil has become one of the world's important economic powers. Brazil

[13] On December 21, 1991, the former Soviet Union collapsed. On December 25, Russia's official name was changed to the Russian Federation. Due to high oil prices in recent years, Russia's foreign exchange and gold reserves have jumped to the third place in the world. However, Russia is still the weakest country among the BRIC countries. Russia

[14] India is considered a symbol of the Asian economic miracle. Since the start of economic reforms in 1991, India's GDP has been growing steadily, with an average annual growth rate of about 6.

According to reports, by 2020, India will be one of the countries with the fastest economic growth in the world. India

[15] International public opinion believes that among the "BRIC" countries, China has the most outstanding economic development. Since China's reform and opening up, its average annual economic growth has exceeded 9 in the past 30 years. A Goldman Sachs research report stated that as long as the current development trend is maintained, China's economic size will surpass Japan's in 2016 and the United States in 2041. China

[16] In December 2010, South Africa officially joined the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism, and its stable economic development has attracted widespread attention. South Africa is the world's fourth largest mineral-producing country. Its gold and diamond reserves and output rank first in the world, and its mining industry leads the world. South Africa makes full use of international markets to promote rapid growth in trade and investment. Relying on eight major ports, including Durban and Cape Town, South Africa's goods trade can directly radiate to surrounding developed countries, while also providing strong support for the economic development of the entire Africa. South Africa