Ni fashion hotel

First of all, it is stated that this is a sloppy article, which is only used as a talk after dinner; Secondly, we don't mean to discredit our peers, but re-examine this nickel short-selling market from our perspective; Third, please like it if you like it.

Here are today's details:

If there is no accident, London nickel futures will resume trading next Monday.

As for this wave of epic nickel short selling involving a huge amount of money, it is also well known to many ordinary consumers under the rendering of various media. For a time, words about demon nickel, shorting, unplugging the internet, futures, eating melons and learning knowledge have become hot words in the cold industry of futures, especially the self-media propaganda that "China Nickel King earned 8 billion with tears", which made people excited.

But futures are futures, which, like all financial behaviors, are cold, but have bloodthirsty properties far more terrible than war.

Before we begin, it is necessary to popularize what nickel is.

Nickel is a silvery white metal with good ductility, magnetism and corrosion resistance. Known as "the vitamin of iron and steel industry", it has always been the main raw material for producing stainless steel, from pots and pans to large-scale construction equipment and weapons manufacturing, involving all aspects of daily consumption.

However, with the rise of energy substitution in recent years, the demand for nickel has increased with the increase of battery consumption, and the growth rate of this demand has maintained a rapid growth momentum with the increase of the demand for electric vehicles.

The global nickel supply is mainly concentrated in Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, Russia, China and other countries, and the enterprises involved mainly include Russian nickel industry, Vale, Glencore, BHP Billiton, Serit, Anglo-American resources and so on.

Among them, although Russia's nickel production only accounts for about 6% of the world, its primary nickel production accounts for about 20% of the world.

And this wave of nickel short-selling market is also triggered by Russian nickel.

Since the end of February, with the sudden change of Russian-Ukrainian relations, the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions have successively imposed sanctions on Russian-related goods, which has also suppressed Russian nickel exports.

In the past few years, Russian nickel occupied the first place in the world, with an annual output of about 200,000 tons, which has been the main delivery variety of nickel in London.

At the same time, China Qingshan Holdings is also the largest nickel producer in the world, with an annual output of nearly 300,000 tons. But the nickel it produces is mainly high matte nickel, not standard pure nickel. Although it can be used in many fields, it is different from the delivery standard of nickel in London Stock Exchange. In a sense, it can be said that it is two products.

According to the short-selling idea of this short-selling market, it should be that with the increase of Qingshan Holdings' output in the field of high nickel matte, it can greatly supplement the global nickel supply and the cost is lower, thus making the international market put downward pressure on nickel prices.

As early as 202 1, when Qingshan Holdings announced the high nickel matte technology, it once triggered a sharp drop in the global nickel price.

Because of its holding capacity, Qingshan Holdings can shine brilliantly in the global nickel futures market even though it is a non-standard product, and has established a large number of short positions for a long time.

But this time, because of the problem of Russian nickel, many parties have found a good opportunity.

On March 7th, like other commodities, London Nickel Futures was speculating on the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and many short-selling institutions such as Qingshan Holdings were also trading. However, a large amount of funds poured into the disk market without warning, and the price of nickel futures went up all the way, and the price nearly doubled that day.

There is no further information about why short positions such as Qingshan Holdings did not choose to close their positions in the current market, perhaps because the short positions previously established were too large.

According to the disk price stage of the day, the loss of short positions such as Qingshan Holdings was around $8 billion.

Here, I will explain to some white people what liquidation is.

Suppose Qingshan Holdings continued to put on the market for sale when the nickel price rose on March 7, and sold a ton for $32,000, but then the nickel price rushed to $48,000. At this time, if you choose to buy another hand from the market, you can hedge the $32,000 sold in the previous period, that is, complete the first-hand transaction, and the final loss of nickel in this first-hand period is $65,438+$06,000.

However, it is a pity that Qingshan Holdings did not close its position that day, which directly led to the price from 50,000 to 60,000, 70,000 and 80,000 the next day, until it exceeded 65,438+10,000. At this time, only the short position established at $32,000 yesterday lost as much as $68,000.

At this time, we can't investigate why we don't close our positions, because all the people who have participated in futures trading are basically dull in the face of this market-that is, dull words, scalp numbness, incredible, unbelievable and dissatisfied. All beliefs are only two words, which may be the feeling of all nickel shorts at that time.

At this time, the London Stock Exchange chose to suspend trading, that is, "unplug the network cable and disconnect the network" as netizens said, and cancel all transactions on that day.

Different media have different interpretations of this. One thinks that the London Stock Exchange has been acquired by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and must help its own people; One view is that Qingshan has found a large number of deliverables, and if it continues to trade, then those international capitals will suffer a big loss!

In fact, just as Russian nickel is forbidden to participate in delivery, the London Stock Exchange is facing such a market for the first time. Everyone can understand that this is a trading loophole in the use of international funds and can be maliciously emptied within the scope permitted by the rules. If the London Stock Exchange does not take measures at this time, the century-old reputation it has worked hard to accumulate will be destroyed, and it will no longer find value for the market and become a complete gambler market.

This situation is not allowed in all commodity trading markets in the world, which is why the London Stock Exchange, after canceling the trading, announced that nickel futures will adopt the price limit system after reopening.

Then, for Qingshan Holdings, protecting entity enterprises is the basis for maintaining the normal operation of the market. The temporary measures of the London Stock Exchange undoubtedly gave Qingshan Holdings more operating time, and then the bank loan was solved, and the standard nickel in the national treasury was replaced by high-grade matte nickel, which greatly eased the pressure of emptying.

However, this short-selling market is still not over.

It is reported that the current short position in the London nickel market is conducive to continuing to maintain short positions and is unwilling to admit losses.

In fact, there is still a problem in this, that is, some netizens wrote "Earn $8 billion with tears", which abruptly escaped short sellers and wrote a story of great honor-lack of respect for the market is enough for our enterprises to take detours in the future development, and may even suffer big losses.

First of all, it should be clear that the London market is the pricing center of global nickel futures, which is linked with the Shanghai nickel market in China. When the price of nickel in London reaches $50,000, the price is the same all over the world.

Previously, it was forced to empty it because the bear could not get so much spot. Now it's a high-nickel treasury, and all brothers and sisters have to settle accounts clearly.

Moreover, in the industrial chain, China is not only a big producer of nickel, but also a big consumer of nickel. At present, it can be done in one go. When we have needs, the whole world will speculate on your needs.

Secondly, everyone who has participated in futures trading knows that the core of the short-selling market is that before the price rises, many parties have detected that there are enough empty orders on the short side. Generally speaking, most empty orders are hung up before the price rises. At present, the price level has little to do with short positions except the change of margin.

Therefore, with the easing of the forced air market, the biggest benefit that the air company can get may be the decline of the deposit. It is still too early to talk about profit.

In short, when the early nickel market is no longer a game that small retail investors can participate in, chasing up and down is facing great risks.