Inquiries surged by more than 6 times. How will overseas tourism recover? Listed companies responded

China Fund News reporter Wen Xi

With the domestic entry nucleic acid testing and centralized isolation, the "Five Ones" and passenger load rate restrictions and other international passenger flights Quantity control measures have been lifted, and entry and exit have now resumed in an orderly manner. Travel and travel immediately became a topic of public discussion in a short period of time. Outbound travel, which has been dormant for three years, is expected to usher in a long-lost "spring".

In the past three years, outbreaks and local recurrences of the epidemic have hindered the recovery of the tourism industry, making the road to recovery difficult and tortuous. According to the research and judgment of the China Tourism Academy, it is expected that the inbound and outbound tourism market will most likely recover significantly in 2023. Recently, Thailand has even loudly shouted "China is back", which has attracted widespread market attention.

So is the recent recovery of the tourism industry going smoothly? Reporters from China Fund News recently interviewed a number of listed companies in the tourism industry to learn about the actual situation of recovery. Among them, Uoxin Travel, the leading listed company in overseas tourism, bluntly stated that the number of incoming phone calls and official website views increased by 6-7 times, and the popularity has increased significantly, but the phenomenon of large-scale outbound tourism has not yet occurred. According to the industry, the real "touchstone" for the recovery of overseas tourism is actually this year's May Day holiday and summer vacation.

In contrast, domestic travel has recovered faster. Qunar data shows that bookings for routes over 800 kilometers account for more than 90%. On the Tongcheng travel platform, from January 1st to 8th, the number of inquiries about domestic long-term vacation travel products for Spring Festival trips increased nearly 20 times year-on-year.

Faced with expectations of a recovery, listed companies in the domestic tourism industry have already been gearing up.

The number of inquiries from leading companies surged 6-7 times

Recently, major travel platforms have released data one after another, showing that the popularity of travel has rebounded rapidly. In fact, after the release of the “Category B and Pipeline B” plan, the biggest impact was on entry and exit, and the popularity of outbound tourism immediately picked up quickly. Qunar data shows that within 15 minutes after the news was released, instant searches for international air tickets increased sevenfold. Tongcheng Travel data shows that after the news was released, the number of visa searches increased 10 times instantly.

The market generally expects that during the recovery stage of the epidemic, people’s travel demand is expected to be intensively released, and the industry is expected to recover quickly. Zhongxin Travel, a leading outbound travel company, said that after the implementation of the policy, the number of incoming calls to its call center and the number of official website views increased by 600-700.

Judging from the company’s consultation data, Thailand, Japan, and Singapore have become the countries with the largest consultation volume. In addition, neighboring countries in Southeast Asia and visa-free and visa-on-arrival destinations, such as the Maldives, Phuket, and Bali; and countries with long-term multiple-entry visas, such as the United States and Canada, have also become the focus of tourists.

In fact, a report released by Qionyou.com on the 16th also showed this "liveliness". Its survey report shows that after the policy of orderly resumption of overseas travel for Chinese citizens was announced, searches for related overseas destinations and overseas hotels on the website increased by more than 400, and searches for "visa" related content increased by 280.

Among them, the time when travelers plan to travel has changed significantly before and after the policy. More than 90% of users plan to start outbound travel within 2023. The number of users who choose to travel within half a year increased by 13.9 to 38.5, followed by The proportion of travelers who have traveled within 3 months is 23.1, and 12% of users will use the Spring Festival holiday to restart outbound travel in January.

Neighboring countries also have very high expectations for domestic tourists to go abroad. The Tourism Authority of Thailand also recently released a forecast saying that the number of Chinese tourists visiting Thailand in 2023 is expected to reach 5 million, while in 2022, this number was 274,000.

Many countries in Asia are organizing groups to welcome the arrival of Chinese tourists. Malaysia recently predicted that it will receive 1.5 million to 2 million Chinese tourists in 2023.

Some relevant industry players in Singapore estimate that the return of Chinese tourists will bring an additional S$2 billion in annual revenue to Singapore

Industry: It will take time for outbound tourism to pick up

However, From the perspective of the industry, the current recovery prospects of outbound tourism still face some uncertainties, including the convergence of epidemic prevention policies between source and destination, changes in the global epidemic situation and international situation, and the recovery of tourists' spending power.

A research report from East Asia Qianhai Securities also pointed out that the increase in searches for visas and international flights and alcohol indicates that consumers have high demand and expectations for outbound travel. As the capacity of airlines recovers, As well as the resumption of visa processing, the actual booking volume is expected to recover in the long term. The agency also believes that after China liberalizes outbound travel, the different epidemic prevention attitudes of a few countries may lead to differences in the recovery time of different overseas tourist destinations.

Uoxin Travel also stated that the current large-scale outbound travel group business has not yet resumed, and the tourism industry is still dominated by domestic tourism. On the contrary, the domestic tourism market has shown a rebound trend during the Spring Festival.

Taking Uoxin Travel’s own business as an example, its current bookings are mainly for domestic tourism destination products, supplemented by business visits, family visits abroad, and study abroad. “It is expected that in the future the tourism market will drive outbound travel through domestic travel, and peripheral travel will drive the trend of long-term cross-border travel.”

However, in the long term, as consumer confidence gradually recovers, the backlog of travel demand is expected to be released at an accelerated pace, and the recovery trend of outbound travel is basically clear. Guo Lechun, deputy director of the Qunar Big Data Research Institute, predicts that with the implementation of policies and the recovery of airline operating capabilities, this summer will usher in a peak inbound and outbound travel.

As a leader in overseas tourism, Uoxin Travel also predicts that changes in the inbound and outbound tourism market may be more clearly felt during the May Day Golden Week or summer vacation in 2023. The company said that at present, flight schedules have not been fully restored, and visa processing at the visa center has not yet been fully implemented. With the gradual recovery of flight capacity and the orderly development of visa services, the inbound and outbound tourism market can further recover.

Judging from the operating data of the three major domestic airlines, international routes continued their restorative growth trend in December. The passenger transport capacity investment of Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines on international routes increased by 143.7, 54.29 and 68.95 respectively year-on-year; the passenger turnover of international routes increased by 166.7, 86.86 and 113.99 respectively year-on-year.

Many airlines are also continuing to increase their international routes. According to the January international flight plan announced by China Eastern Airlines, from January 8 to 31, China Eastern Airlines plans to operate 43 international routes, an increase of 22 year-on-year, and plans to operate 400 international flights, an increase of 220 year-on-year. The new and encrypted routes mainly involve Shanghai. Departing to Southeast Asia, Australia, Europe and other regions.

Domestic travel is the first to recover

Compared with outbound travel, which faces many uncertainties, the recovery of the domestic market is relatively certain in the short term.

Recently, the proportion of long-term travel products on many online travel platforms has increased. Qunar data shows that bookings for routes over 800 kilometers account for more than 90%, and hotel bookings for more than three days in a row have increased by 20% year-on-year. On the Tongcheng travel platform, from January 1st to 8th, the number of inquiries about domestic long-term vacation travel products for Spring Festival trips increased nearly 20 times year-on-year.

Fliggy platform data also shows that as of now, the number of travel bookings for the 2023 Spring Festival has increased by more than 60% year-on-year. The demand for medium and long-term travel continues to recover, with inter-provincial travel orders accounting for more than 80%, and outbound travel bookings hitting a peak in the past three years. In terms of price, the average price per customer of related tourism products during the Spring Festival increased by more than 70% year-on-year. Ctrip data shows that the platform’s recent bookings for travel products during the Spring Festival increased by 45% year-on-year, and per capita travel spending increased by 53% year-on-year.

Taken together, compared with the Spring Festival and National Day holidays in 2022, the distance and time users travel during the Spring Festival holiday in 2023 are significantly longer, and the domestic tourism market is recovering significantly.

However, a listed tourism company that is deeply involved in the southwest told reporters that the company's hotel orders have not yet seen significant growth. The company believes that on the one hand, after the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies, the number of infections in many places is increasing, tourists have a stronger awareness of self-protection, and their travel plans should lag slightly. On the other hand, it is just before the Spring Festival and it is also the off-season for travel, so it will take some time for the market to recover.

The industry is also actively preparing for the first recovery in domestic tourism. CYTS said that in recent years, the company has begun to cultivate new "tourism" business formats and the capabilities of the entire cultural tourism industry chain. In addition, the company has integrated its marketing sector to expand into public relations, expos, exhibitions and other related fields. In terms of scenic spots, the Wuzhen model has been replicated, the brand influence of Gubei Water Town has been steadily improved, and the Puyuan project is scheduled to open.

In terms of outbound travel, according to the reporter, Uoxin Travel has prepared travel products in advance, and the first batch of customized products represented by mini tour have been launched, with destinations covering France, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. , Japan, Maldives, etc. In terms of the long-term, preparations for the North and South Pole in 2023 and the 121-day cruise around the world in 2024 are in place.

Regarding performance expectations, a relevant person in charge of a listed tourism company predicts that the overall performance of listed tourism companies in 2023 is expected to make a qualitative leap, and it is expected that "the performance in the second half of the year will be better than the first half of the year." However, he also said that the recovery of cash flow and business volume will take time, and the situation of each business segment is different. The person said that he is optimistic about the release of tourism demand under the background of post-epidemic recovery market and consumption-promoting policies.

Editor: Joey