House prices in the north are low because "many people in the north don't need to buy a house"?

Author | Bai Luo

Recently, CBN published a list of housing prices covering 15 sub-provincial cities in China.

the housing prices of these 15 sub-provincial cities show a very obvious difference between the north and the south-almost all the cities with high housing prices are in the eastern coastal areas, while the cities with the lowest housing prices are in the northern areas.

CBN believes that the fundamental reason for the decline in housing prices in the north is that many areas in the north are dominated by state-owned enterprises, with a large proportion of non-commercial housing, and a large number of shanty towns have been renovated, "so many people in the north do not need to buy houses".

1

North-South differences in the property market

In recent years, the property market seems to have been strengthening a concept-

The northern property market is no longer working.

from the total collapse of the property market around Beijing to the sharp drop in the volume and price of the northeast property market, rumors about the northern property market swept through for a time, making it difficult to distinguish between true and false. When analyzing the current situation of the northern property market, CBN pointed out that many areas in the north are dominated by state-owned enterprises, with a large proportion of non-commercial houses, and there are a large number of shantytowns, so many people in the north do not need to buy houses.

this reason is really novel, but the webmaster can't agree. Because this is like saying that there is no state-owned enterprise in the south and there is no shed reform in the south. In fact, shed reform in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places has been under way. Moreover, the number of state-owned enterprises in Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang is not too much.

Today, taking this opportunity, the stationmaster will come to talk with you about the "north-south polarization" in the property market.

Let's talk about the overall situation first. In terms of performance, the northern property market in recent years is indeed lacking in stamina. Of course, this "performance" mainly refers to housing prices.

in the list of housing prices released by major institutions, the increase of housing prices in the north is mostly unsatisfactory. The house prices around Beijing have already dropped, and the Tianjin property market even went on the hot search because of the price reduction. Hegang, a small town in the northeast, has brushed its sense of existence with a suite of 2 thousand yuan.

let's take a look at the housing price rankings of 15 sub-provincial cities released by CBN yesterday.

The list is straightforward, ranking first in Shenzhen in the south and last in Changchun in the north.

as a whole, the trend of north-south polarization is clear. The cities with high housing prices are basically located in the southeast and coastal areas, while the cities with low housing prices are mostly located in the north.

As of October 22, the average price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen reached 78,722 yuan/m2, up .9% from the previous month. Since the "715 Policy", the Shenzhen property market has entered a brand-new situation-the transaction volume has fallen, the transaction price has risen, and the public is still full of confidence in the real estate in Shenzhen.

In sharp contrast, the northern property market is in a depression.

In this slump, Harbin jumped out first and fired the first shot calling for housing enterprises to reduce prices. On November 18th, some media said that Harbin will introduce 14 support measures to stabilize the property market, including the policy of encouraging housing enterprises to adopt discount promotion.

Subsequently, the staff of Harbin Housing and Construction Bureau responded to the rumor to the media, saying that it was true: "The state requires the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and puts forward a policy of one city, which means that if the market is hot, it will be pressed, and if it is cold, it will rise by one liter. We only put forward this policy to keep the market stable. Because of the impact of the epidemic, the sales revenue of catering, tourism and hotels decreased, resulting in a decline in the purchasing power of buyers, and housing enterprises also started construction due to the impact of the epidemic. The government fine-tuned the market policy to avoid the impact of the epidemic. "

to put it bluntly, the regulation of Harbin's property market is essentially for destocking.

2

Differences in the northern property market

We habitually blame the decline of the northern property market on the economic development in recent years.

this is a big premise, especially since some time ago, cities published their own "three quarterly reports", and the economic aggregates of cities in the north and south are gradually expanding.

on the whole, the top 1 northern cities in the first three quarters of China's GDP are only Beijing.

Tianjin's economic aggregate was officially surpassed by Nanjing in the last quarter. Niu Fengrui, a researcher at the Urban Development and Environment Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, said frankly when analyzing the differences between Tianjin and Nanjing: "This may be related to the big environment. In recent years, the economy of the North and the South has been seriously divided, and the economic growth rate in North China is slow."

The economic situation is also directly reflected in the housing price, and the housing price decline in Tianjin in recent years has aroused considerable concern.

Previously, Zhongxin Jingwei reported a news about the price reduction of houses in Tianjin, saying that the price reduction of both new and second-hand houses in Tianjin has become the mainstream, and many buildings in the urban area have experienced a decline of several thousand yuan. People who buy at a higher price may have to bear at least hundreds of thousands of losses.

This statement even forced the Tianjin Housing and Construction Bureau to clarify that the current property market is "stable in price increase".

According to the sales price index of commercial housing prices in 7 large and medium-sized cities published by the National Bureau of Statistics from January to October, in terms of new houses, the prices of new houses in Tianjin are relatively stable, while the sales prices of second-hand houses have declined to varying degrees, and the number of listings is also rising.

As of the third week of November, the number of second-hand houses for sale in Tianjin has reached 148,55.

Of course, Tianjin is not alone on the road of falling house prices. In the list of housing prices in 15 sub-provincial cities published by CBN, the housing prices in Qingdao, Jinan, Harbin and Changchun also fell to varying degrees.

Among them, the price of second-hand houses in Qingdao was 21,49 yuan/m2, down .4% from the previous month;

The house price in Jinan was 16,944 yuan/m2, down .3% from the previous month;

The house price in Harbin was 1,99 yuan/m2, down .4% from the previous month;

The house price in Changchun was 1,33 yuan/m2, down .5% from the previous month.

......

A few days ago, a building in Qingdao, Shandong Province was reduced by several thousand yuan per flat, which caused the previous buyers to be greatly dissatisfied and rushed into the sales office to ask for return.

the overall impression is that the northern property market is a chicken feather in one place.

in contrast, the southern property market is much more fierce. On November 16th, Shenzhen Huarun Mansion Runxi obtained the pre-sale certificate with a price of 132, yuan/m2, which attracted numerous fans.

China's housing prices also announced the second-hand housing prices of 11 cities and districts in Zhejiang in October 22, showing that Zhejiang is the only province in China where the second-hand housing prices of all prefecture-level cities exceed 1, yuan. Even in such a situation, the public still hopes that house prices will continue to rise, and pinned the new opportunity of rising house prices on the 222 Hangzhou Asian Games.

such a gap really makes it difficult for people to have "confidence" in the northern property market. However, if you think that the housing prices in the northern property market have entered the downward space, it is a big mistake.

in fact, the northern property market also has two sides, one is the decline in housing prices in big cities, and the other is the carnival in small cities.

Among them, Tangshan, Hebei Province is the most prosperous place. Judging from the residential sales price index of 7 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics in October, the prices of new and second-hand houses in Tangshan increased by more than 1% year-on-year.

in addition, house prices in some small cities are also rising. Two days ago, the stationmaster reported on two properties in Hebei and Shandong. Due to the overall price increase, developers tried to raise prices in a variety of ways.

many readers told the webmaster that this is not a case.

3

Conclusion

Although northerners are stamped as "many people don't need to buy houses", from the actual situation, it is obvious that northerners need to buy houses.

There may be two main reasons why the housing price in the north is lower than that in the south:

First, the population density in the northern cities is smaller;

Second, the northern cities cover a larger area.

to put it simply, it's normal to have a small population and a large land, and the house price is relatively low. After all, these cities, such as Shenzhen and Xiamen, are characterized by a small land and a large population, and houses are limited resources, driving up housing prices all the way.

Why is the average housing price gap between Guangzhou and Shenzhen getting bigger and bigger? Guangzhou is larger than Shenzhen, which is also an important reason.

to put it another way, isn't it bad that the house price is low?