Lonely shadow in Berlin: don't ask for gains or losses, but ask for a clear conscience.

Among mammals, human beings are special. Different from the behavior patterns of wild animals, they all rely on instinct, and we always need a meaning to do things. Once it has meaning, the gladiator's arm is a car, and it's not a problem to shake a tree. Although we know that in the face of the torrent of the times, there will be no practical results except making a gesture, there are still many people who are reckless and merciless for the meaning behind their actions. From a pragmatic point of view, it is not worth the loss. However, people always need a little spirit, just like Confucianism, knowing what not to do. It is a great side of human nature to do things without asking about gain and loss geometry and having a clear conscience.

I saw a movie called Lonely Shadow in Berlin the other day. Although the score is not high, the picture is gloomy and the plot is simple, it is still a masterpiece. After reading it, I thought for a long time and decided to write a film review and reward it with everyone.

At the beginning of the film, a young German soldier stumbled alone in the Woods, his tender face was full of fear and panic, and with a gunshot, he fell on his back. In his last vision, the shadows of trees swayed in the wind and gunshots were heard everywhere, and all this was just a daily fragment in the Second World War. After that, the picture returned to Berlin. The streets are covered with colorful flags and full of festive atmosphere. The children selling newspapers shouted excitedly that France had surrendered ... but all this could not cheer up the parents of young people because their only son died. The dust of the times falls on everyone's head, which is a mountain. ...

20 10, 10 On March 3, Germany finally ended the Treaty of Versailles after paying 59.5 million pounds. World War I finally came to an end in Germany. It lasted 9 1 year, which was not only the process of Germany's compensation for World War I, but also the process of Europe and the United States absorbing German blood. The Treaty of Versailles did not let Europeans build a brand-new Europe on the ruins, but destroyed the German economy and gave birth to the Second World War. As Keynes said, the world war originated from scarcity, but it should not end in plunder.

19 18, World War I ended. The following year, Germany signed the Treaty of Versailles. Then say goodbye to Austria; I broke up with Arthas and Lorraine; Break away from all overseas colonies; The area west of Rhine River and Saar Coal Mine 15 went to France to buy meat; Committed war reparations of 654.38+32 million marks ... separated families, heavy debts, Germany. Germany lost 13.5% of its territory, 12.5% of its population, 16% of its coal-producing areas, 50% of its steel industry and all its overseas colonies, but it did not gain nothing, and at least gained hundreds of billions of debts. The amount of compensation in the Versailles contract is as high as 654.38+03.2 billion gold marks. According to the gold standard at that time, it was about 47,000 tons of gold, 300 times that of boxer indemnity.

John, then the chief representative of the British Treasury. Maynard. Keynes hit the nail on the head and pointed out: "You are all poor and crazy, beware of Germany and your lives." However, the red-eye ally didn't listen at all. They were beaten so badly by Germany that they were really poor and crazy to pay the medical bills. Keynes felt that he couldn't understand these short-sighted sand sculptures, so he said angrily, "My words are here. If you don't listen to me, you will be beaten by Germany sooner or later! " Later, in order to prove his banner, Keynes published a book: The Economic Consequences of the Peace Treaty.

Like the last issue of Liszt's book, I guess you won't read it either, so I'll give you a lesson to reduce the scientific dimension. In this book, Keynes expounded four things:

No. 1, why do Europeans struggle to eat their stomachs when their lives are better than anyone else?

Second, why is the Treaty of Versailles harmful to others and yourself?

Third, how to scientifically claim compensation from Germany?

Fourth, predicted the coming hyperinflation in Germany!

Keynes pointed out in his book that the trade order and industrial capacity in Europe were severely damaged after World War I, and the urgent task should be to restore trade and production, not to liquidate Germany. Germany should be reintegrated into the post-war economic system, not a claim against Germany. At the same time, in the book, Keynes also gave his own solutions, including relaxing the amount of compensation, rebuilding the financial credit system, reducing debts, and easing relations with the Soviet Union and Russia. As you can imagine, Keynes's views are incompatible with the mainstream public opinion in British and French society. After the book was published, Keynes immediately went on a hot search in Britain. The consequences are very serious, he was sprayed into a pig's head! But as time goes by, it turns out that the truth is really in the hands of a few people. Hyperinflation, economic crisis and World War II were all unfortunately pointed out by Keynes!

Back to the German society in the movie, I learned that my mother collapsed after my son died in battle and my father was an old factory worker. Like ordinary Germans, he is unsmiling and goes to work in the factory as usual. Out of the door, someone shouted to him: We won, and we will become the richest country ... SS officers and factory management called a meeting of workers to celebrate the victory, and at the same time confidently proposed to increase production by 30%. By the way, their factory produces coffins. This increase in production was not only an optimistic performance of the Germans at that time, but also a hint of future results.

After World War I, Germany's economy declined and its income dropped sharply. According to the Treaty of Versailles, it is heavily in debt. In the view of Weimar's new government, developing economy is the fundamental way to solve the problem. Once the economy grows, the government's fiscal revenue will increase, so many problems can be solved. But the Treaty of Versailles occupied Germany's wife, children, relatives and friends, just like wanting to work, but no one was there. Without Alsace and Lorraine, Weimar government could not reproduce its former industrial level, but lost all its overseas colonies and Germany lost its market. Germany really wants to return to its old job and be a good person, but it won't work! (Infernal Affairs: Give me a chance, I want to be a good person) So the Weimar government took out second-hand preparations and started the printing press. Paying off debts while stimulating the economy can kill two birds with one stone. When we talked about quantitative easing in the United States before, we mentioned that more money was printed, and Germany, which was driven crazy by debt at that time, was even higher! Time came to 1923. Due to the lack of endogenous economic power, money was issued indiscriminately year after year, and the mark depreciated seriously.

The Germans really had no choice but to discuss with France: "My brother's family really can't open the pot. Can you give him the money he owes you for two days? " To say that China people are also cool people, they immediately said happily, "No! If you can't get the money at the point, put the Ruhr area on top! " But Germany really can't afford it. There is no doubt that its debt is overdue. So the French occupied Belgium and directly robbed Ruhr-gebiet. This forced Germany to commit suicide by hanging, which led to the famous Ruhr crisis.

In the same year, two things happened in Germany: Adolf Hitler's beer hall failed in a coup and was thrown into a Bavarian prison; Alma schacht Huo Xian, a 46-year-old director of Imperial Bank of Germany, became the national currency circulation commissioner, responsible for saving the Deutsche Mark. Although the two men have nothing in common at this time, they both care about the same thing: how to save the German economy. For this problem, Hitler published Mein Kampf in prison and began to take the nationalist line. Schacht tried to protect the German economy by mortgaging state-owned assets, realizing land, setting up special funds, issuing bonds and issuing new currency. After the Ruhr crisis, Germany began to let go of itself and break the jar. Anyway, I can't afford it, so I love it! I'll show you when I die! The strongest inflation in history came as scheduled, and what Keynes was worried about finally happened.

At the beginning of 19 18, it takes 0. 15 DM to send a letter in Germany, 1923 to send a letter 1 100 million DM. The figure of one trillion sounds like a huge sum today, but in Germany at that time, it was only enough to buy a loaf of bread. Hyperinflation is a devastating blow to the German economy! Factories went bankrupt on a large scale and workers lost their jobs on a large scale. The only good news is that the stock market has skyrocketed!

German stock index was only around 19 100 in 2007, but it exceeded 10 trillion in 1923. The stock market soared not because German companies had good profits, but because German money was really worthless! For example, in 19 17, the asset value of Mercedes-Benz was 1000 billion mark, so in 1923, the asset value of Mercedes-Benz increased by 1000 billion times due to the depreciation of the German mark. This year, in order to save the market, the Federal Reserve has also invested a lot of dollars in the market, and the US stock market has also skyrocketed. Just like Germany, this is not because the American economy has stabilized and rebounded, but because the American economy has been hit and the Federal Reserve has been printing dollars without restraint.

At that time, Germany was not pretending to be dead, but really dying. Before the war, Gao Fushuai was short and poor. After the war, it was very sad. Just when the Ruhr side was about to cause death, the United States stood up and acted as a peacemaker. The United States pointed out that if Germany is forced to die, it will not get money. Why don't you renegotiate and postpone the debt, so that Germany doesn't have to hang itself and you can get the money. Everyone is very happy. Britain and France can get the money, so under the leadership of the United States, everyone sits down and talks again. This is the famous Dawes Project. According to the Dawes plan, the total debt will remain unchanged, and Germany will pay 20 billion marks in installments. The rest is paid in the form of products, labor and technology. Germany reorganizes Imperial Bank to control inflation, and France can no longer harass Ruhr. The United States released money on behalf of Germany first, and then issued 200 million US dollars of bonds for Germany through Wall Street to ease the financial crisis. Of course it should be calculated as interest. In the future, Britain and France will ask the United States for money, and Germany will also ask the United States for money, and the problem will be solved satisfactorily. And the host of the conference, Mr. Humanitarian, won the Nobel Peace Prize of 1925.

It looks great, doesn't it? But you taste, you taste. At that time, Mr. Dawes was the president of the American Central Trust Company and a big shot on Wall Street. Bonds issued to solve the Ruhr crisis are based on the assets of the German government and issued with interest through Wall Street. Brokers who issue and underwrite these bonds must earn fees. From this perspective, Dawes Plan actually helped Wall Street issue and underwrite bonds. Great, really great! This is not just a lighthouse, it is simply a five-level tower in the lighthouse!

The inflation crisis has greatly weakened Germany, and people's dissatisfaction and disappointment have reached the extreme. The mark in people's hands is worthless, and wealth is directly zero. At the moment when the people are most disappointed, it is also a good opportunity for the new political forces to grow wildly. The Nazi Party stepped onto the historical stage and ushered in the golden age of expansion.

193365438+1On October 30th, Hitler was successfully elected as Prime Minister. Six months later, he was elected president with 90% support rate. Speaking of which, someone may have shown the Great Depression on the public screen. But for Germany, there was no Great Depression. Anyway, the economy has been lying on the floor and has not risen. Shaw is not depressed. That's an allied matter, not mine.

1923165438+10, immediately after taking office, Alma schacht began to issue new coins, and one trillion old coins were exchanged for a new dollar. With the support of Dawes Plan, the Singapore dollar is pegged to the US dollar with an exchange rate of 4.2: 1. However, the dilemma facing schacht is that the credit of Weimar government has gone bankrupt, and if it is guaranteed by government credit, no one will buy it. At that time, Germany also lacked enough gold to support the mark, and its foreign exchange reserves were negative, so it was unrealistic to return to the gold standard. As a result, schacht abandoned government credit and used a lot of land and industrial products as value anchors to rebuild people's confidence in Mark. Subsequently, Germany resumed industrial production with American loans. Part of the products are exported to Britain and France, and the other part is exported to earn foreign exchange. Germany slowly recovered its strength. At this time, Hitler was still busy writing a book in prison, and schacht saved the German sovereign currency by himself. At this time, two people finally came together. Hitler changed from a prisoner to a head of state, and schacht became the German Finance Minister. Soon after, schacht gave Hitler a multiple-choice question: War or Bankruptcy? Soon, the worst World War II in human history began.

1933 After Hitler came to power, he began to prepare for war. In order to make money, I once asked schacht for advice on economic issues. Schacht's answer is: "War, or bankruptcy." Because of this sentence, schacht went to the Nuremberg Tribunal in the future. It's true that disaster comes from the mouth. Hitler made all-out preparations in the autumn of 1933-1939. During these six years, the average annual military expenditure in Germany exceeded 40 billion marks, accounting for 10.6% of the national income. 1939, military expenditure exceeded 17% of national income. At the same time, in Britain, military expenditure only accounts for 4% of its national income. The Nazi fiscal deficit reached 654.38+00 billion marks, equivalent to 60% of the fiscal revenue of that year!

For fear of another hyperinflation, Hitler did not print tickets. It's a massive debt. This is the same as the current US Treasury bonds. In 1933, when Hitler came to power, the scale of German national debt was11700 million marks, but it soared to 30.7 billion in 1939. In order to make money, schacht issued a wonderful flower in the world economic history-"Mifu Voucher". 1934 Metallurgical Research Co., Ltd. was established in the name of Siemens, Krupp, Rheinland Steel and Guthof. This company is a real leather bag company. The bonds issued by this leather bag company are called Mifu bonds, which are not only promised by the central bank to be cashed at any time, but also guaranteed by the state credit with interest within 4%. At the same time, the institutions that buy Mifu vouchers enjoy the priority of bidding for German government projects.

As a disguised financing platform of the government, this pioneering work has been used to this day, and the various credit instruments used by the Federal Reserve this spring are also this set. The professional name is debt monetization. The issuance of US Treasury bonds by the Federal Reserve to the whole world is equivalent to borrowing money with IOUs, and then borrowing money with IOUs as collateral, which is endless.

Attracted by attractive conditions, the first issue of Mifu coupons was robbed, totaling 6 billion marks. Because Mifu coupons are commercial bonds, they are not included in government debts, and there is no need to worry about inflation, so they are more addictive than printing banknotes. Subsequently, with the full promotion of 5 1 banks in Germany, Deutsche Securities, Krupp Securities and Thyssen Securities sprang up like mushrooms after rain, raising a lot of cash for the Nazi government. Besides bonds, there are other financial innovations in schacht! 1939, the German Ministry of Finance announced that it would no longer pay the factory owners in full, but would use taxes as collateral to buy products with 60% cash and 40% tax stamps, which could be deducted after a certain period of time. This is equivalent to collecting the future tax of German enterprises in advance. 1939, tax stamps injected 4.4 billion marks into the Nazi military machine, equivalent to the total national debt of 1/8. The Nazi government overdrawn the future of Germany, got a lot of cash and solved the financial problems at that time.

The state finances invest heavily in armaments and do not create wealth, which means that any expansion of government debt can only be a Ponzi scheme in the end. The fundamental premise of Ponzi scheme is that existing investors can fully cash out and always put it on a shelf with absolutely reliable credit. In this respect, the Nazi government was very advanced. Like America, they want to fuck the whole world. The difference is that the United States sent letters to prostitutes in dollars, while the Nazis sold themselves in war. Doesn't armament create wealth? I will plunder wealth with armaments. Germany's war machine has been launched, and everyone will be trapped in it in the face of the torrent of the times.

Back to the film, let's take a look at the old couple. After a painful and hesitant struggle, the old couple realized the reality. It was Hitler who took their children. The old couple are determined to resist the Nazi government. However, at that time, under the pressure of Nazi Germany, the old couple could do nothing but roar inside. This is just an ordinary German family, a foreman in a small factory and a housewife. What can they do in the face of the torrent of the times? But they still choose to do something! They picked up a pen and wrote a shout to the Nazis on the postcard. Wake up, mothers, Hitler took my son and will take your son. Wake up, mothers, and defeat Hitler. Sounds interesting, right? However, if you don't let others know, it's no different from hiding in the bathroom and swearing. If let others know, it means fighting against Nazi forces, and the consequences are clear. It's only a matter of time before being hanged.

Although the old couple recognized the situation clearly and considered the consequences, they resolutely threw themselves into the contest. [1] They wrote cards and threw them in public places such as office buildings. They keep writing and throwing like a tree. In the film, the process of the old couple throwing cards is not smooth sailing, on the contrary, there are frequent dangers. When watching this movie, I always have a doubt, what will happen to people who see postcards? What role can such a lonely cry play in such a society? If no one sees it, or few people see it, or those who see it don't respond at all, then what's the point of this extremely expensive resistance?

The inspector took a stack of cards and said to his old father, Look, you can turn in your cards when you see them. I have both.

Sure enough, soon, someone saw some cards and gave them to the Gestapo. The secret police noticed the incident and began to file a case for investigation. The inspector inserted each card number on the map. The result was doomed. A year later, the old couple were finally arrested.

At this time, I still have an expectation. Maybe I have paid a lot and many others have been left behind. I thought, maybe half and half, maybe more people are left behind. We always have the expectation of justice and light in our hearts. Maybe this will make sense to the old couple who bought their lives.

The inspector asked the old father how many sheets you had written. 285. The inspector picked up the cards on the table and said that there were 267 cards, that is to say, only 18 cards were left, and the rest were handed in. You only affected 18 people.

Seeing this, my heart seems to have been hit by a hammer. All these efforts, only 18 people saw and stayed, and others were accomplices of the Nazis. 18 people, with the old couple's two lives, is it meaningful?

This is a true story. In China's Confucian spirit, there is such a thing: knowingly commit crimes. I couldn't figure it out at the time. Isn't that stupid? Yes, it's silly. But isn't that what human beings are pursuing? Whatever the result, please have a clear conscience! Just like the old couple, they bravely raised their hands in the face of the torrent of the times.

Before being executed, the detective asked the old father what else you wanted. The old father replied, give me a card and a pen.

The old father said: every anti-Nazi thought will become a grain of sand in the evil war machine. Although small, it will be shattered in the machine, but every little makes a mickle, which will eventually stop evil and restore the world to light!