Qian Yi Hotel Furniture

(1) The annual order scale of instant delivery business reaches 100 billion, and the market scale exceeds100 billion.

(2) The demand for instant delivery service riders reaches one million, and the labor cost exceeds 100 billion.

(3) Hummingbird Matching, Xindada and Meituan Distribution are three pillars, and Shunfengcheng accelerates the spoiler.

(4) The current instant delivery efficiency needs to be continuously optimized, and the labor cost remains high.

(5) The epidemic situation stimulates the demand of unmanned distribution market, and unmanned distribution has human-machine cooperation or become an industry direction.

Instant delivery, based on the mobile Internet channel, connects the supplier and the demander, and the supplier can meet the demand of the demander1-5km with delivery time of 0.5-3 hours in the same city through the delivery platform, with short response time and direct door-to-door delivery without warehousing and transit.

The application scenarios of instant delivery are mainly divided into three categories: catering, articles in the same city and express terminal. Catering includes dinner, afternoon tea, supper, snacks, fresh fruits and vegetables, drinks and cigarettes. Articles in the same city include medicines, daily necessities, flowers, personal articles, business documents, home appliances and furniture, gifts and toys, etc. Express terminal mainly refers to the last 100 meter of express business.

In recent years, instant delivery has started from the field of goods and catering in the same city, and gradually expanded to the field of fresh food and supermarket delivery, and will be extended to a wider field of express delivery terminals in the future (finally 100m).

Market supply and demand of instant delivery industry

The annual order scale of instant delivery business reaches 100 billion, and the market scale exceeds100 billion. As shown in the figure 1, the total express business in 20 19 was 63.52 billion, and the total instant express business was184.9 billion, accounting for about 29% of the total express business. It is predicted that the sum of the two will reach the demand of 100 billion in 2020. At the same time, in 20 19, the market transaction scale of instant express delivery industry is 13 126 billion yuan, which will continue to grow at a high speed in the future.

Figure 1? Business demand and market scale of instant delivery and express delivery

The demand for riders in the instant delivery business has reached one million, and the labor cost has exceeded 100 billion. At present, riders send an average of 25-35 tickets a day. According to the total business demand of 25 billion tickets in 2020,1.96-2.74 million full-time riders are needed to meet the business demand of 365 days. According to the semi-annual report of Meituan in 20 19, its daily take-out order was 20.7 million yuan, and the rider's cost in the first half of the year was about 65.438+0.77 billion yuan, and the cost per order was about 4.7 yuan, so the labor cost of the instant delivery industry in the whole year was about 654.38+01750 million yuan.

Operation mode of instant delivery industry

Full-time distribution and part-time crowdsourcing are two operation modes of instant distribution. As shown in Figure 2, the special car distribution mode is to establish a full-time professional rider team to carry out the distribution task, which mainly exists in the distribution enterprises of B2C business model; Crowdsourcing model is a distribution enterprise that absorbs social idle manpower with light asset model and establishes a flexible, comprehensive and huge part-time capacity pool, which exists in B2C or C2C business model.

Figure 2? Two Business Models of Instant Express Industry

Under the B2C platform, compared with crowdsourcing mode, the express delivery mode has the priority to take orders on the platform. The B2C platform mainly connects merchants and consumers, and has the characteristics of relatively centralized and fixed service orders, such as take-out by the US group, hungry, box horse, group purchase by the US group, super species and so on. Undoubtedly, the B2C platform must give priority to sending orders to its full-time rider team, and crowdsourcing mode will be marginalized by the platform in the long run because it is responsible for supplementing capacity supply.

In C2C platform, crowdsourcing mode mainly meets the needs of emergency mutual delivery, with higher added value. C2C platform mainly serves the needs of emergency distribution in the same city, which is more random and urgent, and naturally brings higher added value, such as flash delivery, Dada, express delivery for everyone, point to me, UU running errands and so on. The crowdsourcing mode with light asset characteristics will effectively occupy some market segments of instant delivery by absorbing a large number of idle capacity and using the business model of "low cost+high income".

The Competition Pattern of Instant Express Industry

Hummingbird matching, Xindada and Meituan distribution are three pillars. At present, in the instant delivery market share of China, hummingbird instant delivery accounts for 27.7%, Xindada accounts for 27.2%, and Meituan take-out accounts for 25.4%. The market share of the three companies has reached 80.3%, and a three-legged pattern has emerged, as shown in Figures 3 and 4.

Figure 3? Business comparison of mainstream enterprises in instant delivery

Figure 4? 20 19 Q3 China Instant Delivery Platform Order Volume Market Share

On May 20 19, Meituan officially launched a new brand "Meituan Distribution" and announced the opening of the distribution platform. At present, Meituan's distribution has formed four transport network modes: convenience store, traditional supermarket, near-field retail and office building, namely "cruise mode" of point-to-point network, "Galaxy mode" of star network, "warehouse-distribution integrated mode" of pre-warehouse+distribution, and "intelligent terminal mode" of distribution+intelligent terminal.

2065438+June 2009, Hungry Word of Mouth announced the independence of the instant logistics brand "Hummingbird Distribution", and 20,000 fully digital distribution stations will be established in the next three years. In addition to the take-away delivery business of the word-of-mouth platform, hummingbirds are equipped with more service orders from the Ali system.

On 20 19 and 12, Xindada announced its name change to Dada Group, and jointly built an instant delivery platform "Dada Express" with Jingdong Logistics, implemented the dual-core driving strategy of "retail+distribution", and built a multi-type and full-format commercial matrix from hypermarkets, convenience stores to boutique supermarkets based on JD.COM. The arrival of COM has realized the organic combination of "business flow and logistics".

Companies such as SF Express and City Flash are making great efforts to spoil the situation. In the market share of instant delivery in China, SF takes 4.5% in the same city and 5.6% in flash delivery. Although the share of the two is not large, they are also making their own efforts.

Take SF as an example. 20 19, 10 In June, SF made its official debut for the first time, announcing the overall layout of the real-time logistics market and starting to operate independently. On the one hand, it becomes the infrastructure system of new retail logistics through high-density real-time logistics distribution network, SF Express network and warehousing distribution network; On the other hand, through independent operation, the business scale is expanded, the efficiency of distributors is improved, and the unit cost of real-time distribution is reduced, thus improving the gross profit of platform operation.

The current pain point of instant delivery industry

Distribution efficiency needs to be continuously optimized. First, the instant delivery service objects are scattered, and it is often the phenomenon that riders repeatedly deliver in the same place; Second, the essence of high-frequency small batch distribution is to exchange high cost for high timeliness, and the cost still needs to be continuously optimized.

Labor costs remain high. Real-time distribution with wide distribution, high growth and low efficiency not only increases the number of couriers, but also increases the workload of distributors. Nearly 25% of the delivery staff work more than 12 hours a day, resulting in high labor costs, accounting for more than 30% of the total cost of distribution operations.

Figure 5 Average working hours of different employees in logistics industry

Distribution personnel flow too frequently. From the perspective of the whole industry, low wages, high intensity, weak platform binding force and imperfect basic guarantee system lead to the turnover rate of distribution personnel as high as 40% within one year, which leads to the instability of front-line employees in distribution enterprises and the problem of "labor shortage".

Traffic safety supervision is difficult to implement. The million-class electric two-wheeled vehicle matched by the delivery staff shuttles in the middle of urban roads, which has different degrees of safety hazards to the delivery staff, pedestrians, road vehicles and other traffic participants.

The unmanned trend of express delivery industry

Large-scale man-machine collaborative unmanned distribution system is expected to break the above pain points. In order to get rid of the pain points of the above-mentioned industries, it has become an important direction of the real-time distribution industry to introduce unmanned distribution teams to participate in distribution on the basis of the original real-time distribution system, as shown in Figure 6.

Fig. 6 Manpower distribution process and man-machine cooperation unmanned distribution process

For enterprises, first of all, unmanned delivery vehicles can effectively reduce the demand for delivery personnel and solve the problems of high mobility and difficult employment of delivery personnel; Second, using unmanned delivery vehicles instead of people to deliver goods can save most of the labor costs; Thirdly, enterprises can train some distributors to participate in the operation and scheduling of man-machine collaborative unmanned distribution, and train distribution employees to management positions.

For users, unmanned delivery vehicles have the function of network connection, and can develop new applications according to users' customized service needs, further enhancing users' local life service experience.

For the government, the replacement of two-wheeled electric vehicles and motorcycles by unmanned delivery vehicles is conducive to the macro-control of the transportation department and the elimination of traffic safety hazards.

The epidemic situation stimulates the demand of unmanned distribution market, and the demonstration test can be expected. In the process of fighting the epidemic in 2020, unmanned distribution has become one of the effective means to prevent the epidemic. A number of unmanned distribution companies joined the "epidemic" of this war. Meituan launched the "Unattended Epidemic Prevention Assistance Program" to deliver fresh food to several closed communities in Beijing and other places with unmanned vehicles; Jingdong Logistics uses unmanned delivery vehicles to deliver medical supplies to Wuhan Medical Station; Baidu launched the Apollon minibus and the Neolithic unmanned vehicle, which are used for take-away distribution in Beijing business districts, hotels, hospitals and residential areas. ...

Summary:

Undoubtedly, the rapid growth of instant delivery business in China has brought great challenges and opportunities to the current logistics distribution system. By designing a man-machine collaborative intelligent dispatching system with low-speed unmanned delivery vehicles and delivery personnel, it may be able to effectively supplement the current real-time distribution system relying on manpower in the next 3-5 years, and explore ways to reduce costs and increase efficiency in the whole logistics industry from two aspects of improving distribution efficiency and reducing labor costs.

Some data are referenced from:

[1] The commercialization status, challenges and suggestions of unmanned distribution in China.

[2] Research Report on 36kr Unattended Distribution

[3] "2065438+09 Talk about Instant Delivery: The Three Giants of Meituan, Hummingbird and Dada Fight for hegemony"

[4] China instant delivery industry development report 20 19 in the third quarter.

Figure | Network and related screenshots

About the author: Guo Jiahui, Ph.D. student of Tongji University.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.