Let's predict who will buy who in the end.

At present, mobike has completed the E round of financing, with a total financing amount of about 355 million US dollars (about 2.45 billion yuan), and ofo has completed the D round of financing, with a total financing amount of 580 million US dollars (about 4 billion yuan).

Although the financing of both parties has reached a high amount, the low level of operation has delayed the unprofitable day of bicycles with high frequency demand, and merger is the best choice.

The damage rate is a major injury to ofo. At the beginning, ofo was different from mobike because of its portability and rapidity. The lower cost of cycling makes it increase its investment in a short time, and rapidly expand the market from the campus, covering the streets.

However, the lack of GPS and the simplicity of the car lock make it difficult for people to find an ofo that can be ridden. According to the conservative expectation in the industry, the damage rate of ofo is between 20-30%. If the damage rate cannot be reduced in a short time, it is difficult for investors to have confidence in their profits.

Mobike's main problem is high cost, which will prolong its profit cycle. It is the difficulty of riding that is criticized by users and affects its utilization rate. The portable version solves this problem to some extent, but users will not consider the old version of mobike if they have a choice.

Although the two companies share the same bicycle, there is a big gap in model and direction. Mobike and OFO are different from Didi and Kuai. Today, bicycles are mainly hardware enjoyment, with bicycles as the core. Different models and styles have great differences in maintenance. If the two companies merge, the operation and maintenance costs will not be reduced. As far as the current market is concerned, it is impossible for both parties to have a "subsidy war" in which taxi software competes for customers. Hu Weiwei, the founder of mobike, also publicly stated that it is almost impossible for mobike to merge with ofo.

So I think it is a false proposition that merger can be profitable, not only the merger of competitors can be profitable. According to this logic, should Tmall and JD.COM merge? Should Suning and Gome merge? Whether they are profitable or not depends on whether they can fully integrate and explore the mode and resources, rather than simply merging profits.