What is Lawrence Klein's occupation?

Lawrence Klein (1920-2013) is the founder of econometric model. Through his published works and a lot of guidance to research groups in various countries, he promoted the research on econometric models and the feasibility of analyzing the actual effects of economic policies by using these models. Because of Klein's contribution, the idea of econometric model has been widely used, if not universally. Now econometric models can be found all over the world, not only in scientific research institutions, but also in government departments, political organizations and large enterprises. This 1980 Nobel laureate in economics is called "the father of econometrics".

20 13 10 died at his home in Philadelphia on 10, at the age of 93.

Chinese name: Lawrence Klein.

Mbth: LawrenceRobertKlein

Nationality: USA

Birthplace: Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Date of birth: 1920 September 14.

Occupation: Scholar

Graduate School: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of California, Berkeley

Major achievements: "Klein

-Weinberg model "

"Brookings model"

"Wharton model"

"world model"

Representative works: Keynesian Revolution, American Econometrics Model, Econometrics Textbook.

biography

Klein was born in Omaha, Nebraska, USA on September 4, 1920.

1942, after graduating from the University of California, Berkeley, was admitted to MIT.

1944 received a doctorate from MIT. He is the first doctor of economics in the college. After receiving his Ph.D., he joined the econometric team of the Cowles Committee of the University of Chicago. There, he accepted a challenging task and continued Jane Dingbergen's attempt to establish an econometric model. His first macroeconomic econometric model was completed here. 1947 In the summer, Klein left Chicago and accepted the position of consultant to the Canadian government. One summer in Ottawa, he helped the Canadian government establish the first econometric model. Then he and his wife went to Europe.

After 1958, Klein joined the faculty of the University of Pennsylvania. Since then, he has been a professor in the Economics Department of Wharton Business School, engaged in teaching and research. There, he created a series of models, which were later called Wharton model.

1959, at the age of 39, was awarded the john bates clark medal by the American Economic Association. Known as the "Little Nobel Prize", this award is one of the economic awards established by American Economic Association 1947, which is used to commend young and middle-aged economists under 40 who have made great contributions to economic thought and knowledge.

On the academic journey of life, Klein has always been a success. He is active in many organizations and serves as the chairman of Econometrics Society, American Economic Association and Eastern Economic Association. Klein also participated in other academic organizations, such as American Association of Business Economists, American Philosophy Society, American Economists Club, etc. In addition, Klein also works for government agencies.

Erudition and academic contribution

Klein's main theoretical contribution is: based on the recognized economic theory, according to the empirical estimation of the actual data in the real economy, establish a mathematical model of the economic system, and use it to analyze economic fluctuations and economic policies and predict economic trends. Various estimation systems are used in theoretical economic analysis and public policy, including periodic research, random fluctuation, dynamic multiplier response, scheme analysis and prediction. The models studied include developing economies, centrally planned economies and industrial market economies, and the international trade and financial relations of these economies. There are Klein-Weinberg model, Brookings model, Wharton model and world model.

Klein's academic achievement is simply to combine econometric methods with Keynesian macroeconomic analysis and establish macroeconomic metrology. In his masterpiece "Keynesian Revolution", he expressed Keynes's economic theory in mathematical form for the first time. His other masterpiece, An Econometric Model in the United States 1929 ~ 1952, is not only the originator of modern macro models in terms of structure, scale and advanced estimation methodology, but also the first econometric model officially used to predict economic fluctuations, which has a far-reaching and universal impact on the macroeconomic econometric models established in the United States and other countries in the future. Klein also helps other countries build models. Including Canadian model 1947, Japanese model 196 1, British model first quarter 196 1. His suggestions on the model style of developing countries are obviously adopted by the models of different countries such as India, Mexico and Sudan. He also worked with his colleagues to build a model of the Soviet Union and made a quantitative description of the economic plan and implementation of the former Soviet Union. Link Plan in the late 1960s was a large-scale econometric model of the world economy, in which Klein played a leading role. He is both an initiator and an active research leader. One of the goals of this plan is to coordinate the econometric models of various countries. It is used to improve the possibility of analyzing the spread of commercial fluctuations in various countries, thus facilitating the prediction of international trade and capital flows. Another goal is to study how the economic effects of one country's political measures affect other countries. This method is used to study how rising oil prices affect inflation, employment and trade balance in various countries. Link plan has opened up a brand-new development path and has great theoretical and practical value. Through his work and guidance to researchers in various countries, Klein promoted the research on econometric forecasting model and the possibility of applying this model to economic policy. Thanks to Klein's efforts, econometric models have been widely used. Econometric models can now be found all over the world, not only in scientific institutions, but also in public administration, political organizations and large enterprises. In the field of economic science, few people have so many successors and so much influence as Lawrence Klein.

Klein-Goldberger model

Goldberger, a graduate student at the University of Michigan, cooperated with Klein to complete a new American economic model called Klein-Goldberger model. They will supplement and modify the model established by Coles Committee, and introduce the results of some investigations and studies, so as to make regular economic forecasts. Thanks to Clark, a bold statistical economist from Australia, their research results have reached a peak. Clark wrote in the influential Manchester Guardian Global Weekly that the American economy, which gradually declined in the Korean War, may be in a large-scale recession. He even scared everyone into thinking that he would encounter the most terrible economic event-because the economic situation continued to spiral down, and eventually the total collapse of 1929 would be repeated. After reviewing the model's economic forecast of 1953 ~ 1954, Klein concluded that the situation would not be the same as that of 1929. So he and Goldberger wrote an article and sent it to the newspaper. I am glad that this article is accompanied by a Lloyd's book in addition to its large-scale publication. At that time, only a few fragments of Klein-Goldberger model were used by computers. In order to solve the model problem, they may need a day or two to calculate manually with the help of a desktop computer. Later, the University of Michigan installed a group of large digital computers, and they also began to solve the model automatically-also called simulation. But until Klein left the University of Michigan, there was no concrete result.

In the era of McCarthyism, Klein left Michigan and went to Oxford, which was quiet and respected academic freedom, and worked in the Institute of Statistics, imitating Michigan's survey form to conduct a British savings survey. During his stay in Oxford, he returned to the route of model building, with the goal of the whole Britain. Here, he made friends with Sir Bohr for the next 25 years, and further used computers for quantitative calculation during his stay at Oxford University. Although he has made some progress, he still can't solve this model.

computer application

By the 1960s, computers could finally be effectively applied to econometrics. At first, computers were only used for science, engineering and large-scale data processing (such as population census). Klein and his students, as well as researchers from IBM Computer Company, spent considerable time studying nonlinear problems related to maximum probability and other statistical prediction methods, and at the same time greatly improved the simulation skills derived from the research of Brookings model. Finally, they have two innovative developments, which make the research methods of econometrics take a step forward: one is to present data in the standard format of national income accounting for the convenience of econometric analysts; The second is to adopt time-sharing method. The real development of computer was in the 1960s, and it blossomed everywhere in the next decade, and was widely used by researchers and scholars all over the world. The standard use of computers is in data management, statistical inference, application and displaying research results with easy-to-understand tables and charts. But in addition, as early as the end of 1950s, many difficult research techniques began to develop. These techniques based on speculative simulation include the interference of correctly extracted random errors to the solution of dynamic model. One of the pioneers in this field is Adelman's research on the dynamic characteristics of Klein-Goldberger model; The other is to measure econometrics from Wagner's statistical method to construct Monte Carlo experiment.

The Wharton team is not the first to use these methods, but in the process of using them, they have a deeper understanding of the periodicity and statistical inference of their model system. Some large-scale speculative simulations of Brookings model have improved computer-based experimental skills, and they also quoted a lot of information from them. Through various efforts, we can understand various response characteristics of large-scale models, such as multipliers, sensitivity to parameter changes and long-term trends of the system. Wharton's team is fully engaged in the calculation and calculation of large-scale models through computers, and can make quick and valuable responses to some major events, such as President Nixon's new economic policy, the oil embargo, and the overthrow of the Iranian monarchy.

* * * The same development

1966, researchers from DuPont invited Clay to establish economic models for three developing countries directly invested by the company. To this end, he selected some students from the Department of Economics of the University of Pennsylvania to form a research team and established models of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. According to the agreement between the two parties, DuPont has the right to use these models, but the system including data and equations is the intellectual property of the company.

Klein established the Mexican econometric model research group within the econometric research group in Washington. From 1969, it was only supported by a few private sectors in Monterrey and Mexico City. The organization has developed into a self-sufficient system with 150 sponsors, including American enterprises, relevant units of the Mexican government and international organizations. These technologies cover model construction, computer application, the presentation of model results and the contribution to the decision-making of civil affairs and government departments. This is really an amazing case, and similar efforts have achieved results in other countries in the world. Starting from the Latin American economy, Klein began to have the opportunity to establish economic models in many developing countries. There are many models in the Far East countries, and some in Africa and the Middle East. At that time, the best scholars had joined various teams of the United Nations to help emerging countries solve various problems of economic development. In the mid-1960s, Klein signed a consulting contract with a unit under the United Nations to help build an economic model of underdeveloped countries to estimate the capital needed for their economic growth.

While building models for developing countries, Klein also began to make the same efforts for socialism or centrally planned economy. The pattern design of developing countries must be able to reflect the characteristics of these regions, and it is not appropriate to completely copy the pattern of industrialized democratic countries (OECD countries) based on neoclassicism and Keynesian comprehensive theory. The model of developing countries should develop unique supply-side characteristics, as well as special foreign trade, ownership distribution and population situation. As for establishing a model for the centrally planned economy, it has always been Klein's long-term challenge, that is, facing the regulated market and planning objectives. 1in the summer of 970, Klein discussed these issues with Czech economists who met in the United States in a speech held by the Vienna Institute for Advanced Studies. In the summer of the same year, Klein also discussed this issue with people in the former Soviet Union and Hungary.

Finally, in 1973, Klein cooperated with his colleagues who studied the Soviet Union at school to construct a model for the former Soviet Union-Soviet VMODI, and based on this, constructed a model for later generations. On various occasions of discussion and formal explanation, Klein introduced this model to economists in the former Soviet Union. He believes that through the economic model, we can have a deeper understanding of the economic structure and system of the Soviet Union. In the next decade, visiting scholars from Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union and China came in an endless stream. Their visit made Klein have a deeper understanding of the basic differences between western market economy and eastern planned economy.

Academic writing

Klein has published more than 250 articles and 26 books, most of which are the essence of economics. His works mainly include:

He is not only a prolific writer, but also engaged in editing, serving as the editor-in-chief of Econometrics, International Economic Forum, positive economics and Comparative Strategy.

Interview with China Business News.

On June 2nd, Lawrence Klein accepted an exclusive interview with China Business News at the Westin Shanghai.

China Business News: Last spring, at the 2005 spring meeting of the United Nations Project Link, you said that China should not abandon its exchange rate policy of pegging to the US dollar. As a result, a few months later, the China administration abandoned the exchange rate policy of pegging to the US dollar. How to treat China's current exchange rate policy with reference to a basket of currencies?

Lawrence Klein: This is a very serious problem. The monetary policy of any country is closely related to its macro-economy. In terms of RMB appreciation, we can actually look at it from two aspects: whether the RMB really needs to appreciate, or whether the dollar depreciates too much. So when looking at this problem, if debugging is needed, it should be a two-way adjustment, not a one-way adjustment. The theory of economics has basically admitted that there is no so-called best answer to formulating monetary policy.

In the past, China's so-called pegged exchange rate policy was also implemented in many countries, so this is not a special phenomenon in China. 1994 1 When the China administration decided to adopt the exchange rate policy of pegging the US dollar, it was a completely understandable and convincing means. Many people, including American politicians, say that China is manipulating the RMB, which does not fully reflect the real situation. Because the dollar is pegged, there is no room for operation. If you operate, you should peg the dollar today and the euro tomorrow.

China Business News: After the China administration changed its exchange rate policy, some Americans thought that there would be a lot of room for RMB appreciation, but so far this has not happened, so some Americans think that China is manipulating interest rates. Do you agree with them?

Lawrence Klein: In fact, there are two views: First, the reason why the China administration made concessions on the exchange rate policy is basically based on non-economic reasons, that is, political considerations; Second, it is actually incorrect for the United States to unilaterally demand RMB appreciation. As I said just now, the relationship between currencies needs to be debugged by both sides. In my opinion, the American people spend too much and have no savings, which is the main reason for soft money. In this case, there is not much reason to demand RMB appreciation.

China Business News: The new U.S. Treasury Secretary thinks that the U.S. trade deficit with China may be caused by U.S. domestic policies, not by the overvaluation of RMB, which is consistent with your view at the spring meeting of the United Nations Project Link last last year. If we follow this line of thinking, how will the domestic policy of the United States be adjusted?

Lawrence Klein: There are some things that the media have not noticed or often reported. That is, the inflationary pressure facing the American economy will directly affect Sino-US relations, and a big factor of inflation is that the United States spent a lot of money in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, the resource consumption and economic impact of the United States in these two wars are not directly reflected in many official statistics. In fact, the new Treasury Secretary has no direct influence on the war issue, so the domestic policy of the United States is not directly influenced by him.

China Business News: Some economists think that China's economy is overheated, and they blame the rising prices of oil and raw materials on China's overheating. What's your opinion?

Lawrence Klein: It depends on how you understand the problem of overheating. China's economy has maintained a growth rate of 8%- 10% in the past two decades, which is an unprecedented achievement. In this sense, you can say that China's economy is overheated. Another part of this problem is how to solve the problem of sustainable development. There are a group of scholars in the University of Pennsylvania who disclose some statistics about the sustainable development of China's economy every two weeks. According to the latest data, China's economy is not overheated. In fact, the economic growth rate of China tends to slow down from the perspective of production capacity and consumer savings, which is the result of data analysis.

China Business News: In last year's Wall Street Journal, you listed ten issues that China's economy should pay attention to, among which the growth rate of GDP ranked first. Now the China government proposes to build a "harmonious society", which is gradually weakening the orientation of GDP. Has your opinion changed now?

Lawrence Klein: This is a big problem. Of course, the economies of the United States, Europe and China should not only be indicators of GDP growth rate. In fact, that's unrealistic. Any big economy should consider many indicators, such as inflation, GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, exchange rate and so on. There is no need to look at only one economic indicator.

China Business News: You just mentioned the sustainable development of China's economy. According to your latest research, what is the most urgent problem to be solved to solve the sustainable development problem in China?

Lawrence Klein: The standard for measuring sustainable development is always basic. For example, the quality of life is a measure. From this perspective, China has made a milestone achievement, which is even greater than the GDP growth, because it is a substantial improvement in the quality of life. One thing that can indirectly answer your previous question is the sustainability of China's economy, and that is the impact of China's economy on Southeast Asia, which can be seen from the currency crisis of 1997. If China's economy could not develop steadily at that time, it would affect the whole economy of Southeast Asia. At that time, China made an indelible contribution and played an important role in the stability of the whole Asian economy.

China Business News: You also mentioned that China should assume the role of an Asian economic leader. Do you think the time is ripe now?

Lawrence Klein: During the currency crisis of 1997, many people thought that Japan should play the role of Asian economic leader, but Japan did not play this role at that time. On the contrary, China played the role of Asian economic leader. Some people say that China's economy also encountered economic difficulties at that time, but the research of doctoral students at Stanford University shows that China's economy did not encounter economic difficulties at that time, and it was still growing healthily at that time, which directly and indirectly contributed to the Asian economic crisis. I will have a new book soon, which is aimed at the problem you just said.

(lawrence robert klein, 1980 Nobel Prize winner in economics. Born in 1920, graduated from the University of California, Berkeley, 1942 with a bachelor's degree, 1944 with a doctorate degree from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1968 with Franklin as a professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania. Reason for winning the prize: Based on economic theory and empirical estimation of actual data in the real economy, the mathematical model of the economic system is established. Main works: Keynesian Revolution, econometric textbooks, American econometric model. )