Why does the persistently high trade surplus lead to the appreciation of RMB?

Economically speaking, there may be the following main reasons:

First, the RMB exchange rate has not been adjusted for nearly 10 years since 1994, and China's economy and national strength have undergone profound changes during this 10 year.

Second, since the 1990s, some authoritative international institutions and trading partners have always believed that the RMB is undervalued to varying degrees.

Third, according to the theory of international economics, the excessive foreign exchange surplus itself indicates that the foreign currency is overpriced, the local currency is overpriced and the local currency is under pressure to appreciate.

Fourth, since 200 1, all major currencies in the world, including Southeast Asian countries, have greatly appreciated against the US dollar. Only the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has not been adjusted, that is, the RMB has actually depreciated sharply against other currencies following the US dollar. Not to mention whether the RMB was excessively devalued or undervalued in the 1990s, it is only said that the currencies of other countries have greatly appreciated against the US dollar in recent years, and only the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has remained unchanged. Judging from this alone, the value of the RMB against the US dollar may be underestimated.

(3) International political analysis

The issue of RMB exchange rate is not only an economic issue, but also an international political issue. Some scholars have pointed out that there are other reasons behind some western countries' frequent calls for RMB appreciation. Some are out of jealousy, some are to divert domestic accusations against the authorities, and some are to win votes from domestic manufacturing industries. For example, western countries simply link the value of RMB with the decline of domestic manufacturing industry, trying to force RMB to appreciate. The reason for the reduction of employment opportunities in the United States is not China, but the invisible hand of global competition. The reasons why foreign countries clamor for RMB appreciation are nothing more than the following: First, the RMB exchange rate is too low. It has been suggested that the RMB exchange rate should be set at about US$ 65,438+0 to 4.2 yuan RMB. Second, China's foreign exchange reserves are too high. Since China's accession to the WTO, there has been no significant increase in imports. On the contrary, the trade surplus has greatly increased. Third, China's massive export of cheap goods has caused deflation in the world. Some people think that China's massive export of cheap products in recent years has led to deflation in Japan, Europe and the United States, and China should let the RMB appreciate and assume corresponding responsibilities in the world economy.

The reason why the United States pressured RMB to appreciate is that China's policy of "pegging the exchange rate of the US dollar" failed to give full play to the positive role of the depreciation of the US dollar, but only "greatly enhanced the export competitiveness of China enterprises and stimulated the export of China products". Especially when the US dollar depreciated in 2002, the US foreign trade deficit reached a historical peak of US$ 435.2 billion, and the trade deficit with China reached US$ 65.438+003/kloc-0.0 billion. In fact, the reason for the sharp increase in the US foreign trade deficit is not China's RMB exchange rate policy itself, but the comprehensive effect of many factors such as the adjustment of American industrial structure, the expansion of foreign direct investment, the growth of personal consumption expenditure, and the J-curve effect of dollar depreciation.

Financial hegemony is an extension of military hegemony and economic hegemony. By virtue of its dominant position in the international monetary system, the United States arbitrarily enforces policies according to its own will, continuously obtains hegemonic profits, and maintains its status as a "financial hegemonic country". By depreciating the dollar, the United States can not only reduce its foreign debt burden, but also reduce its debt by one third every time the dollar depreciates sharply, stimulating its product exports and passing on its various economic crises, which has become the main form of its exploitation of other countries. The fundamental purpose of the RMB exchange rate dispute is that the United States hopes to prevent China goods from entering the United States on a large scale through RMB appreciation. The pressure of RMB appreciation, together with the US anti-dumping policy towards China, constitutes the new content of the Bush administration's adjustment of its economic and trade policy towards China.

In recent years, the discussion about "Asian dollar" has become more and more hot, and who can become the leader of Asian dollar in the future has become an increasingly sensitive topic. As Japan's economy has been in recession for ten years, it is less and less likely that the yen will become the dominant currency in Asia. However, due to the rapid economic growth, China has gradually become the "locomotive" of Asian economic development and the "engine" of world economic development, so the value of RMB has become increasingly obvious, and countries around China have begun to form a "RMB zone", which has aroused Japanese anxiety. Against the background of Japan's surplus of $5 billion with China in 2002, Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa proposed a motion to ask the G-7 to adopt "a document similar to the 1985 agreement on the Yen Plaza" to force the appreciation of the RMB, so as to push the global voice of suppressing the appreciation of the RMB to the peak, with the aim of defeating the challenge of the RMB to the yen through the appreciation of the RMB and ensuring the dominant position of the yen in the future.

In recent years, China's foreign economic friction has become increasingly serious, but it is more confined to micro-economic friction. After China's entry into WTO, China is in the stage of system adjustment, and the system factors are paid more and more attention to in China's economic development. Countries such as the United States, Japan and Europe pressured the appreciation of RMB, which increased the share of institutional economic friction in China's foreign economic friction.

(D) the objective role of RMB appreciation

1, enhancing economic self-circulation ability

When the exchange rate changes reflect the degree of supply and demand of foreign currency, enterprises and families can adjust their strategies in time to use foreign currency more effectively. Moreover, if domestic enterprises take advantage of the cost advantage brought by favorable exchange rate for a long time, the easier it is to earn profits by exporting low-end products, and the less incentive they have to invest in product research and development. This is not conducive to the long-term development of national competitiveness.

2. Increase the freedom of monetary policy.

In order to maintain the fixed exchange rate of RMB against USD, the People's Bank of China must buy USD and put RMB in the market. This makes it difficult for the central bank to control the money supply within the target range. In order to offset the impact of foreign exchange, the People's Bank of China must carry out the so-called "local and foreign currency hedging operation", that is, while buying dollars, it will sell government bonds or central bank bills through open market operations to withdraw funds from the market. Moderately expanding the fluctuation range of RMB can increase the freedom of monetary policy.

3. This is consistent with the concern of alleviating the current "economic overheating".

Under the fixed exchange rate, the pressure of appreciation will turn into inflationary pressure-foreign exchange accounts for more money supply, which will bring inflationary pressure. The practice of collecting foreign exchange by issuing central bank bills is unsustainable and will lead to an increase in the financial burden of the government. Expanding the floating range of RMB will ease the transition from appreciation pressure to inflation pressure-RMB appreciation will exert downward pressure on domestic prices, because: 1) the decrease in foreign exchange holdings will lead to a decrease in money supply; 2) Currency appreciation will lower the import price, so it may depress the domestic price.

What is the real purpose of RMB appreciation? The decision made by the central government will not be made for a certain reason, unless the pressure of this reason is too great for the government to avoid or stop. I think there are three reasons:

First, resolve the expectations and pressures of the state and various funds on RMB appreciation;

Second, gradually get rid of the model of pegging to the dollar and prepare for the renminbi to become a hard currency;

Third, take this opportunity to narrow the exchange rate difference between Hong Kong dollar and RMB, and strive to reach 1: 1. Then in due course, RMB, Hong Kong dollar and Australian dollar will merge to form a single currency.

The renminbi is pegged to the dollar. RMB has been appreciating for nearly 10 years, and the appreciation of RMB is in the form of RMB exchange rate decline, that is, the amount of RMB converted from 1 USD is reduced. The average RMB exchange rate 1994 was 8.62 12, 1995 was 8.3490, 1996 was 8.3 143, and in 2003 it was 8.2770 (National Bureau of Statistics, 2004). Since 200 1, the RMB exchange rate has been relatively stable at 8.2770 for three consecutive years, and the cumulative average of RMB exchange rate in June-May 2004 is still 8.2770. Since 2003, the RMB has once again faced the pressure of appreciation, and the international calls for RMB appreciation are getting higher and higher. The United States, the European Union and Japan are also constantly pressing for RMB appreciation. Theoretical circles at home and abroad have also estimated the "RMB appreciation interval" based on various models, with the high estimation reaching more than 50% and the low estimation reaching more than 15%.

The reason of RMB appreciation comes from the internal motivation and external pressure of China's economic system. The internal influencing factors are balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves, price level and inflation, economic growth and interest rate level. Since 1994, China's current account of international payments has been in a surplus state. In 2002, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 286.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.55 times compared with 1994. From the perspective of PPP, the price level in China is only 265,438+0% of that in the United States (World Bank, 2002). From the difference of inflation rate, the average inflation rate in the United States since 1998 is 2.23%, and the average inflation rate (CPI) in China is -0.3%, which is 2.53% lower than that in the United States. From 1978 to 2003, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China increased by 9.3% annually. In these 25 years, China's economic growth is undoubtedly the fastest in the world. Judging from the interest rate difference between China and the United States, china interbank offered rate was 2.7% at the end of 2002, and the federal funds rate in the United States was 1.25%. China's short-term interest rate is 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the United States. In China, the RMB deposit rate is also higher than the US dollar deposit rate by 1.4 percentage points. In addition, since the first half of 2002, the dollar has weakened from strong to weak, and the RMB has depreciated with the dollar, which is contrary to the trend of RMB appreciation. With the rapid growth of relative labor productivity in China (1993- 1999), the growth rate of labor productivity in China's manufacturing industry is at least 1.5 percentage points higher than that in the United States. On the contrary, the devaluation of the RMB with the US dollar makes the trade deficit of countries with trade deficits bigger and bigger, which constitutes the external pressure of RMB appreciation.

Countermeasures:

First, ease the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation.

The pressure of exchange rate appreciation comes from many aspects, such as rapid export growth, capital inflow and rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves. However, at present, China's economic growth is highly dependent on foreign trade, so it is not easy to reduce the pressure of RMB appreciation brought by foreign trade. However, among China's foreign trade partners, the surplus with the United States is the largest, and the pressure from the United States is also the greatest. Therefore, we can reduce our dependence on the American market by adjusting the geographical structure of foreign trade. In view of the pressure brought by capital inflow, while continuing to encourage foreign capital inflow, Chinese enterprises can properly consider entering other countries' markets in the form of foreign direct investment. In view of the pressure brought by the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, we can take measures to appropriately control its growth rate. In addition, QDII system can also be considered. Through these measures, we can alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation to a certain extent and lay the foundation for gradually adjusting the RMB exchange rate level.

Second, weigh the issue of RMB appreciation under the background of globalization and adjust the exchange rate level and exchange rate system in a timely manner.

From the international experience, because economic powers are inevitably faced with the internal and external pressure of exchange rate appreciation during the period of rapid economic growth, and RMB appreciation is the general trend, it is extremely important to avoid the sharp adjustment of exchange rate like the Plaza Accord in the future RMB appreciation process. Under no circumstances should we sign an international document similar to the Plaza Agreement. To this end, the exchange rate should always reflect the economic fundamentals. Under the background of globalization, the exchange rate of RMB should be properly adjusted in the future, so that the exchange rate level can not only truly reflect China's economic situation, but also avoid the negative impact brought by the rapid appreciation of RMB in the future. We should realize that the successful adjustment of RMB exchange rate policy is of far-reaching and positive significance to the future macroeconomic stability, the balanced development of trade and non-trade industries and the sustainable economic growth of China. This requires the government to take decisive measures to eliminate the expectation of appreciation.

Third, comprehensively deal with the problems arising from the impact of exchange rate appreciation on the price level.

For the future trend of RMB, based on the huge appreciation pressure, we must pay enough attention to its possible impact on price level. We should seek truth from facts and analyze the historical lessons of exchange rate fluctuations in other countries in detail, which will really help us learn from them. The exchange rate issue involves many aspects. With China's increasing participation in various international exchanges, exchange rate changes will affect the whole body, and we must attach great importance to it.

Judging from the overall appreciation of the yen, in the long run, the appreciation of the yen has led to an overall decline in Japanese prices. Japan's CPI index has been maintained at a low level since the mid-1980s, and has been negative for many years since the mid-1990s. Therefore, the impact of the appreciation of the local currency on prices should be not only immediate, but also long-term, with emphasis on future prices and long-term overall economy. The view that RMB appreciation may restrain the current inflation trend may be feasible in the short term, and may further form a deflationary trend in the long term, which is not conducive to the stable development of China's economy.

We can't just look at the impact of local currency appreciation on prices and the overall economy, nor can we hope to curb short-term inflationary pressure through RMB appreciation because of the current inflation trend. In the short term, it is of great significance to keep the RMB exchange rate stable. After all, the short-term effect of curbing inflation through RMB appreciation is limited, but the impact of exchange rate appreciation on macroeconomics is overall, and the impact of macroeconomic policies on prices will also offset the inhibitory effect of local currency appreciation on inflation. Therefore, it is necessary to seriously study and comprehensively deal with the problem that exchange rate appreciation affects prices and then affects the economic system, so as to prepare for reducing the negative impact of RMB appreciation on the economy in the future.

Four, other measures to reduce the negative impact of RMB appreciation.

In view of the adverse impact of RMB appreciation on export trade, we can adjust our trade strategy in time to reduce the dependence of economic growth on external demand. As an export enterprise, we should strive to increase the added value of export products, gradually change the original practice of low labor cost and low price, and enter the international market. In view of the downward pressure of RMB appreciation on the price level and the negative impact on the total demand, it can be solved by developing the western region and expanding domestic demand. In view of the reserve risk brought by RMB appreciation, we should deeply study the changing trend of major currencies in the world in the future, and adjust the currency structure and total scale of China's foreign exchange reserves in a timely manner according to China's import scale. In view of the impact of RMB appreciation on the real estate market, we can vigorously develop diversified financial markets and increase investment and financing channels.

First, the benefits of RMB appreciation:

(1) The appreciation of RMB may mean the improvement of the status of RMB and the promotion of China's economy in the world economy.

1) The wealth in the hands of ordinary people in China is more valuable. With the appreciation of RMB, the money in the hands of ordinary people is more valuable, and the global ranking of China's per capita GDP can also move forward.

2) The reduction of China's foreign debt pressure and the enhancement of its purchasing power.

For example, who is paying for the daily operation of the US government, which is known as the "global boss"? The natural answer is American taxpayers. This answer is not entirely correct. Because the current US federal government has a huge fiscal deficit, it is not enough to rely solely on the contribution of taxpayers, so it has to borrow a lot. Who is the biggest creditor? It's Japan and China. China's foreign exchange reserves exceed $300 billion, a large part of which is purchased from US Treasury bonds.

China became one of the biggest creditors of the most powerful empire in the world. This fact itself shows China's growing economic strength and international influence. Last year, China's contribution to global economic growth was second only to that of the United States; Its contribution to global trade growth is second only to that of the United States and Japan. * It is a good thing that the RMB, whose economic strength speaks, naturally gains a greater voice in international affairs.

3) Conducive to the development of the import industry: Shao Jinyang, deputy general manager of China Petrochemical, said in an interview: "If the RMB appreciates, overseas assets will be cheaper for us." If RMB appreciates by 5%, the cost of China Petrochemical's oil import in 2003 will be reduced by more than $654.38 billion at current prices.

(2) The prospect of RMB appreciation is becoming clearer and clearer.

This is because, just as the policy of artificially overvaluing the value of RMB before 1994 was forced to give up, artificially underestimating the value of RMB is also unsustainable, because on the exchange rate issue, although policy intervention can play a temporary role, the market has the final say. As long as China can maintain a high economic growth and promote the full convertibility of RMB, it will not be too long before RMB appreciates and becomes a regional and even world currency. At present, there is not enough evidence to show that China's economic growth will suddenly stop in the near future; China's monetary authorities have repeatedly stated that RMB will be fully convertible.

In fact, the rising journey of RMB has already started, starting with the sharp depreciation 1 994 65438+1October1 In this year, the official exchange rate of RMB converged with the market exchange rate, from 1 USD to 5.80 RMB in the previous year to 1 USD to 8.70 RMB, with a depreciation rate of 33%. From then until the end of last year, according to the statistics of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the nominal appreciation of RMB against the US dollar, the euro (before 1999 was the German mark) and the Japanese yen was 5. 1%, 17.9% and 17% respectively. Considering inflation, the actual appreciation ranges are 18.5%, 39.4% and 62.9% respectively. The calculation results of the International Monetary Fund also reflect the same trend.

Even so, at present, it is not realistic to try to induce a sharp appreciation of the renminbi.

Second, the disadvantages of RMB appreciation:

(1) Affected by the appreciation of RMB, China's economic growth will slow down. It is manifested in three aspects:

1) RMB appreciation will affect China's foreign trade and exports. The appreciation of RMB will increase the price of China products, increase the cost of capital investment, and reduce the competitiveness of China's export products, thus causing domestic economic depression.

The appreciation of a country's currency brings about the decline in the competitiveness of its export products, which leads to the depression of its domestic economy. Japan has learned a bloody lesson on this issue. 1985, in order to curb the export frenzy of cheap Japanese goods, the financial leaders of the United States, France, Germany and Britain took corresponding measures to force Japan to sign the Plaza Agreement, thus forcing the yen to appreciate by 30%. Since then, from 1985 ~ 196 to 10, the ratio of Japanese yen to US dollar has risen from 250: 1 to 87: 1, with an appreciation of nearly three times. "Plaza Agreement" is generally acknowledged as the chief culprit of Japan's economic recession. Now the Japanese want to pass this tragedy on to China.

2) It will also affect the comprehensive competitiveness of China enterprises and many industries. Because despite "China"

"Made in China" has become the main product in the world market, but a fatal weakness of China products is that they have not yet formed their own brands. At present, their market share is mainly due to the low price of China products, and they are not in an advantageous position in the competition. It would be terrible if their competitiveness was hit.

The biggest discovery of this survey by China Entrepreneur is that 82.4% of enterprises believe that the change of RMB exchange rate will have an impact on their business activities. For enterprises active in China's economic arena, RMB is like air and water.

For example, Huang Hongsheng, chairman of Skyworth Group, the owner of a large color TV exporter in China, is worried about the prospect of RMB appreciation. He believes that most of China's exports are low-tech products and few are high-tech products. If RMB appreciates, China's international status may be improved, but the global competitiveness of manufacturing industry will gradually lose. He calculated an account. If RMB appreciates by 10%, it means that the export price has increased by 10%, while the profit of domestic manufacturing enterprises in China is only about 5%. Together with some financial interest subsidies, the average profit level of Chinese enterprises is less than 3%. How does the average profit rate of 3% adjust the appreciation pressure of 10%? There is bound to be a large-scale loss.

Taking Skyworth as an example, Huang Hongsheng outlined the highest psychological bottom line for China enterprises to appreciate RMB: "It is difficult for us to make a big improvement in the American market now, largely because the prices of products from other world factories are as low as ours. For example, Mexican color TV sets, European and Turkish products are very cheap, and we can't raise a dollar. We hope to increase sales of 30 million US dollars in the US market this year, but if the RMB appreciates, then this plan will be aborted. "

For another example, compared with manufacturing enterprises, those foreign trade enterprises that are at the forefront of exchange rate risk have the strongest perception of change. For export-oriented enterprises, the export volume is far greater than the import volume. Therefore, Huang Hongsheng said that the appreciation of the RMB will cause a devastating blow.

Huang Fangning, assistant general manager of Oriental Scientific Instruments Import and Export Group, told the reporter an example of losses caused by the appreciation of the euro-that is, the depreciation of the RMB. In early 2003, they reached an agreement. When signing the contract, the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar was still 1:0.9. It rose to 1: 1. 1 at the time of delivery. They didn't do anything to lock the exchange rate, so they lost money. "Even if we have an intermediate profit of 10% and 20%, it is not worth the loss of appreciation. I can only make it up by myself. "

For another example, some multinational companies that used to produce in China may transfer their investments to Mexico or Malaysia. In the1980s, Taiwan Province Province also experienced the current pressure from China. After the exchange rate of Taiwan dollar rose from 1:40 to 1:25, some traditional low value-added industries moved to Dongguan. Similarly, some experts have analyzed that if the RMB appreciates, these traditional industries will be transferred from Dongguan to less developed areas such as Central Asia and Vietnam. Originally, there were many areas in China, such as the west, which could accommodate these industries. However, because the currency adjustment is aimed at all enterprises, China may be forced to experience the process of industrial hollowing out ahead of schedule.

3) It will also undermine the long-term development of China's economy and bring China's finance to the brink of crisis.

The edge is getting closer. The appreciation industry may destroy the good investment environment that China has worked hard to create for many years, and the new overseas investment will be reduced, which will greatly reduce the driving force of China's economic growth, because such investment will become relatively expensive. On the other hand, the speculation of international hot money may increase, which makes China's finance more and more close to the edge of the crisis.

For example, from the Mexican financial crisis to the Asian financial crisis, it is obvious that the governments of these countries have adopted monetary policies with high interest rates to absorb domestic funds, but the effect is counterproductive. Due to the lack of internal funds, it attracted a large number of international hot money inflows, which led to the deviation of capital flow and the contradiction of capital structure, laying a hidden danger of currency crisis; At the same time, the contradiction of foreign capital inflow pushing up the exchange rate of the local currency leads to the exposure of economic structural problems, or the bubble economy or economic downturn, which forces the implementation of the policy of depreciation of the local currency, directly leads to the transaction risk in the money market and the securities market, and finally leads to the financial crisis.

What is the financial crisis? It's like a poor family with a rich relative.

It brought them a temporary "rich" life, so outsiders lent it huge amounts of money because of the family's wealth. Unexpectedly, the rich relatives of this family suddenly disappeared, leaving this family with only high debts, which led to a friend borrowing huge debts. At that time, there were many dangers.

It can be seen that if the RMB appreciates, it will lead to: due to insufficient internal funds, it will attract a lot.

The inflow of international hot money has caused the deviation of capital flow, formed the contradiction of capital structure and buried the hidden danger of currency crisis.

4) Also, the appreciation will inevitably lead to the prevalence of speculation: because of the dollar-denominated countries

People's wealth has increased rapidly, the stock market and real estate have reached a climax, some "bubbles" have further expanded or created new "bubbles", and polarization has continued to expand, leading to the inevitable prevalence of speculation.

For example, many retail investors in the United States have opened RMB savings accounts in the local area, hoping that one day changes in the RMB exchange rate system will benefit them. Of course, these retail accounts are not real RMB accounts, because according to China's non-convertible exchange rate system, it is illegal to open RMB accounts abroad. They open RMB savings accounts. The deposits in the accounts are USD, but based on the spot exchange rate of RMB, these accounts will appreciate or depreciate due to the fluctuation of the spot exchange rate of RMB against USD. Frank Trotter, CEO of Everbank, said that the company's actions had a great response among some customers. Since the RMB exchange rate began to show signs of imbalance more than a year ago, these customers have been asking for RMB-denominated accounts. Everbank launched the new account on July 1 and injected more than 6.5 million dollars into the account in the following weeks.

(5) In addition, there are many disadvantages of RMB appreciation:

The appreciation of RMB will bring greater pressure to China's deflation; The appreciation of RMB will definitely lower the price, because the price of imported goods will fall.

The appreciation of RMB will increase employment pressure and worsen the current employment situation: foreign-invested enterprises are an important channel to attract domestic labor, especially now, so the appreciation of RMB will not only affect attracting foreign investment, but also aggravate the current employment situation.

The fiscal deficit will increase due to the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, and it will also affect the stability of monetary policy.

The appreciation of RMB will cause serious damage to China's advantageous industries. As a developing country, China has the advantage of labor cost. China's labor-intensive export products are easily restricted by anti-dumping measures, and the export situation is not optimistic. At this time, RMB appreciation will worsen the current situation, so RMB appreciation at this time will not only affect attracting foreign investment, but also aggravate the deterioration of the current employment situation.

Third, in the face of global deflationary pressure, the world once again focuses on the RMB.

The change of exchange rate is closely related to domestic interest rate level, money supply, national income level and price level. Whether a currency appreciates or depreciates should be decided by the market, not politics.

However, Masajuro Shiokawa's proposal is more like a political conspiracy. Holding a RMB of 100 yuan, if a child asks: How much is this worth? Then, the child must be too naive to learn to use money. If Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa asks, how much is this worth? Then, this will cause a storm And this storm is a proposal made at the meeting of finance ministers of the Group of Seven-Japan's demand for RMB appreciation.

Recently, the discussion about whether the RMB should appreciate has become a topic of great concern all over the world. First, Japanese Finance Minister made a request at the meeting of finance ministers of seven countries, and then US Treasury Secretary Si Nuo's speech and the statement of the Asia-Europe Meeting held in Indonesia called for RMB appreciation. Recently, the US "Acoustic Dollar Alliance" proposed to promote RMB appreciation through "30 1 clause". Greenspan's speech made the world focus on RMB again under the pressure of global deflation. It can be said that the government and the people joined hands to attack the RMB exchange rate issue. This dispute over RMB exchange rate, which was provoked by Japan and starred by the United States, was staged in an all-round way, once again making China the center of world attention.

In fact, from the standpoint of the Japanese, it is not unreasonable for Masajuro Shiokawa to raise this issue. First of all, the Japanese economy has been at a low ebb. Why do you stand out in China? China outshines others, and we Japanese also contribute. Look, how many goods Japan has imported from you. Secondly, only when the renminbi appreciates can the yen depreciate, so that Japanese exports can be competitive. China's economy has three advantages: cheap labor, high technology level and cheap currency. Among these three factors, the only one that Japan may intervene is the RMB exchange rate. Japan even wants to use the "negative" of RMB appreciation to prevent domestic enterprises from investing in China, but in market economy countries, the government cannot interfere with the behavior of enterprises, so it requires RMB appreciation. In their view, this can raise the price of China products and increase the cost of capital investment, so that they can't achieve their goals by exerting pressure on the RMB at home.

Forcing the RMB to appreciate is a strategic measure for Japan to compete for the hegemony of the Asian dollar in the future. In recent years, the discussion about "Asian dollar" has become more and more hot, and who can become the leader of Asian dollar in the future has become an increasingly sensitive topic. As Japan's economy has been in recession for ten years, it is less and less likely that the yen will become the dominant currency in Asia. However, due to the rapid economic growth, China has gradually become the "locomotive" of Asian economic development and the "engine" of world economic development, so the value of RMB has become increasingly obvious, and countries around China have begun to form a "RMB zone", which has aroused Japanese anxiety. Against the background of Japan's surplus of $5 billion with China in 2002, Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa proposed a motion to ask the G-7 to adopt "a document similar to the 1985 agreement on the Yen Plaza" to force the appreciation of the RMB, so as to push the global voice of suppressing the appreciation of the RMB to the peak, with the aim of defeating the challenge of the RMB to the yen through the appreciation of the RMB and ensuring the dominant position of the yen in the future.

The motive of the United States and Europe seems to be more obvious, that is, weakening China's economic strength through RMB appreciation, thus hitting China's international influence.

The dispute over RMB exchange rate is essentially a dispute over trade issues. The reason why the United States pressured RMB to appreciate is that the depreciation of the US dollar only "greatly enhanced the export competitiveness of China enterprises and stimulated the export of China products". Especially in 2002, the US dollar depreciated, and the US foreign trade deficit reached a historical peak of US$ 435.2 billion, and the trade deficit with China reached US$ 103 1 billion. The United States hopes to prevent China goods from entering the United States on a large scale through RMB appreciation.

There is increasing international pressure for RMB appreciation. Although in the long run, with the development of China's economy, RMB appreciation is an inevitable trend, the nominal exchange rate of RMB should not be greatly adjusted before China's real export advantage (brand) is formed; Even in the face of enormous international pressure, China should control its exchange rate according to the needs of its own economic development, otherwise it will ruin its excellent economic prospects like Japan and Germany.