Bank loan risk of hotel industry in 2022

The first is the risk of default. The risk of default includes compulsory default and rational default. Compulsory breach of contract refers to the passive behavior of the borrower, and the theory of ability to pay holds that compulsory breach of contract is caused by insufficient ability to pay. This shows that the borrower has the willingness to repay, but has no ability to repay. Rational breach of contract refers to the borrower's active breach of contract. According to the equity theory, in a perfect capital market, the borrower can only make a decision whether to breach the contract by comparing the unique rights and interests in his house with the size of mortgage debt. When the real estate market price rises, the borrower can pay off the loan, recover the cost and earn a certain profit by transferring the house. When the real estate market price drops, in order to pass on the loss, even if he has the ability to repay, the borrower voluntarily defaults and refuses to repay.

The second is liquidity risk. Liquidity risk refers to the risk that short-term deposits and long-term loans are difficult to realize, and liquidity is an important principle for banks to ensure asset quality.

The third is the economic cycle risk. When the economy is depressed, the mortgage risk is transformed into the bad creditor's rights and losses of banks, and banks are faced with a large number of "bad debts", which can easily lead to the credit crisis or even bankruptcy of banks.

The fourth is interest rate risk. Interest rate risk refers to the risk brought by the change of interest rate level to the value of bank assets, which is determined by the capital structure of short-term deposits and long-term loans. Fluctuations in interest rates, whether rising or falling, will bring losses to banks.