12 comparative advantage-which small cities can counterattack (part two)

Last time, we said that in the victory of big cities, there are still some small towns that have the opportunity to complete the counterattack. For example, "big city spillover" and "manufacturing relocation" are effective counterattack paths. So what other towns are likely to achieve a counterattack? In this lecture, we will talk about another counter-attack path: industrial agglomeration under comparative advantage.

What is comparative advantage? For example, if life is a marathon, the advantages that can make you run faster and ahead, whether innate or acquired, are comparative advantages. Cities with comparative advantages can run ahead of other cities, just like people.

For example, innate endowment will create many star towns outside the "big city circle".

For example. Let me ask you, there is a city in China, which reached the income level of moderately developed countries in 2009. Its per capita GDP is higher than that of Beijing, and its infrastructure is excellent. Nearly 30 students from the top three hospitals and the best local middle schools are admitted to Tsinghua Peking University every year. Can you guess which city this is? Few people can answer correctly, and the answer is Erdos, Inner Mongolia.

In the 1990s, it was still a poor town beyond the Great Wall in the north (population 1, 654,38+0.8 million, and per capita GDP was only 75% of the national average). But Ordos has several characteristics: vast land; The average temperature in summer is 2 1~24 degrees Celsius, which is extremely cool. More importantly, it is rich in resources (proven coal reserves accounted for the whole country in 2005 1/6, and billion-level oil fields were discovered in 20 19). Therefore, the price of industrial and commercial electricity in Ordos is very cheap (once electricity in normal time, 0.76 yuan in Beijing and 0.43 yuan in Ordos).

These endowments gave Erdos two opportunities to "leap forward": the first time was the economic upswing cycle of China in 2003-2005, when heavy industry and heavy chemical industry took off, and energy became the biggest constraint. At that time, many cities in the east often had power outages, and those industries and enterprises that needed a lot of electricity began to move desperately to Ordos. China Coal Machinery, Xinxing Heavy Industry, Northwest Special Cable, Foxconn and BOE all set up factories in Ordos, and Ordos' economy took off. The second time was in 20 10, when the industry in digital currency rose, and the energy consumption of "mining" was extremely high. Ordos's cool climate, cheap electricity and land, and good infrastructure make it quickly become the world's bitcoin mining center. In 20 18, the per capita GDP of Ordos was the third in China, higher than that of Shanghai and Beijing.

I call these small cities (towns) "living by gifts": God has given them comparative advantages in resources (including land, mineral resources, climate, etc. ), and at the right time node, meet (or dig out) the right big industrial opportunities, you can rise rapidly.

Besides Erdos, renhuai city, the wine capital (where Maotai Town is located), is also of this type. The temperature, topography and soil along the Chishui River in Guizhou Province have created high-quality brewing water here-60% of China famous wines (Maotai, Langjiu, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd., etc. ) There is production less than 500 kilometers along Chishui River, and industrial agglomeration makes technology and skills spread rapidly in the local area, forming a virtuous circle. By 20 18, Renhuai is still a small town with less than 700,000 people, and liquor sales account for 1 1% of the national liquor.

There are many small towns like this, such as Jingdezhen in Jiangxi province, which relies on porcelain, Anding in Gansu province, which relies on potato industry, Dongying in Shandong province, which relies on oil industry, and so on. So in 2020, what kind of town will have the opportunity to stand out at such a turning point?

In the introduction, I tell you that in 2020, China will come to a middle-class society with 10,000 US dollars and enter a great era in which human capital-intensive service industries will drive the economy. Therefore, to break through, it must be a gift that conforms to this trend:

For example, the middle class is willing to pay for the "experience" and "quality" of consumption. For example, the ski resort in Hokkaido, Japan, developed on the way to a million-dollar society. In recent years, China's ice and snow industry has developed rapidly. Even in the economic winter of 20 18, the growth rate of skiers exceeded 20%, and the growth rate of ice and snow industry exceeded 13%. Chongli in Hebei and Xiang Xue in Mudanjiang in Heilongjiang are trying to seize this opportunity.

For another example, tourism has become more popular, and short-term theme tours, leisure tours and long-term go on road trip to the west have become new fashions. Compared with the previous travel mode of "getting on the bus and sleeping, getting off the bus and taking pictures", tourists now have higher requirements for quality and characteristics. In recent years, China has been learning from the ideas of foreign characteristic towns, such as the exhibition town in Davos, Switzerland and the glass perfume town in France.

But in recent years, more than 2,000 "characteristic" towns have sprung up in China-do you think there are any "characteristics" here? Small towns (towns) that can rise need to conform to the trend of the times and have local endowment. Just like Wuzhen, it has the humanistic temperament of Jiangnan water town, which is the result of thousands of years of accumulation. Doing high-level internet and art exhibitions here will have a different flavor; There is also Altay, Xinjiang, which has the natural scenery of primitive villages, is a "pure land on earth", enjoying the reputation of "the only Swiss scenery in Asia" and is a unique gift from nature. These talents were not created by executive orders.

However, it is not enough to have "endowment", but also to have infrastructure as a support-transportation should be convenient enough, food, clothing, housing and transportation services should keep up, and municipal facilities should be friendly.

Personally, I feel that the ice and snow resources in Northeast China are definitely better than those in Japan, but the supporting services are too backward and do not conform to the consumption concept of "middle class with 10 thousand yuan". There are still many places in China at this stage-excellent natural endowments, but they are dragged down by acquired facilities. Therefore, the efficiency and taste of a local government will really play a decisive role in the development of a place.

On the whole, the general trend of middle-class society with 10,000 yuan has the opportunity to stimulate the rise of some "characteristic" towns, but the "characteristic" towns created by slogans and sports development are divorced from the characteristics of the times, external environment and internal endowment, and are likely to be illusory short-term projects.

Compared with the small towns that rely on talents to eat, there is another small town that is counter-attacking-that is, because of some historical factors, such as poor innate conditions, they were forced to save themselves, and then a strong industry grew in one area, gradually forming a specialized labor market that is unparalleled in other areas-

For example. We must know that small and medium-sized businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises in Zhejiang are developed, and many sub-industries are gathered here-for example, Yuhuan County, Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province is the "Capital of Automobile and Motorcycle Parts". This small town with an area of less than 380 square kilometers has nearly 2,500 auto parts enterprises with a very fine division of labor, with an annual output value of more than 50 billion yuan. Originally a small fishing village in Zhejiang, a fishing machine maintenance factory was set up for its own needs to maintain fishing machines. Later, the motorcycle and automobile industries in China rose, and soon turned to the manufacturing and processing of spare parts. After 20 or 30 years, Yuhuan County has gained a considerable "first-Mover advantage" in auto parts processing.

Moreover, the first two articles in our course mentioned that the spillover effect of skills and technology in a place is very strong. One factory drives another factory, and one village drives another village. Backed by the huge China market, the technology is constantly iterative, and a strong acquired industrial cluster advantage is gradually formed here. There are many industrial towns like Yuhuan, such as Tonglu, the "hometown of pen making" in Zhejiang, where more than 90% of the ballpoint pens in the world are now produced; Changxing, Huzhou, occupies half of the national battery industry. 65% of electric vehicle panel enterprises come from here, and many tens of billions of listed companies such as Tianneng and Wei Chao are also located here.

These successful small towns in Zhejiang are precisely because of "no endowment". For example, in Zhejiang, there is very little arable land per capita, which is about 1/3 of the national average. Without the secondary and tertiary industries, it is difficult to have enough to eat. Instead, they are forced to have the entrepreneurial spirit of dare to think, dare to do and dare to suffer-they are good at seizing any small opportunity, quickly expanding a sub-industry and forming the first-Mover advantage of industrial agglomeration.

Of course, these towns also benefited from China's rapid industrialization in the past. Then, at the turning point in 2020, do small towns still have a chance to counterattack?

Frankly speaking, the wealth environment has changed from "low-hanging fruit" to "high-hanging fruit", and the driving force of economic development has changed from manufacturing to human capital-intensive service industry. Accordingly, it will be more difficult for industrial towns to counterattack now than before. But it's not hopeless. For example, the artificial intelligence mentioned in my previous course is a long industrial chain with a high degree of subdivision. Many small towns counterattack by forming a comparative advantage in a certain subdivision. For example, in Jiaxian County, Henan Province, which makes data labeling for artificial intelligence image recognition technology, oil painting art replicas enter Dafen Village, Shenzhen, where ordinary people live.

An interesting phenomenon is that this kind of opportunity, which is weakly related to the characteristics of the city itself, is often closely related to "entrepreneurs". For example, Liuyang, Changsha and Xiangtan in Hunan are all driven by Lance Technology, making glass screens for Apple, Samsung and Huawei. Why Hunan? Because the founder Zhou Qunfei is from Xiangtan, Hunan. Another example is Yongning County, Ningxia. Now, driven by Yipin Group, monosodium glutamate and compound fertilizer are exported to Europe, America and Asia, with an annual income of 7.7 billion yuan. Similarly, the founder Yan Xiaoping is also from Yongning, Ningxia.

In other words, if we want to analyze whether there is any hope of counterattack in a place, we may get some useful insights by combining the first module of the course, the trend of "industry, industry and occupation" in this era and the list of local entrepreneurs.

Teacher Xiang Shuai said in the article: "The ice and snow resources in Northeast China are definitely better than those in Japan, but the supporting services are too backward, which is inconsistent with the consumption concept of' middle class with 10,000 yuan'. There are still many places in China at this stage-excellent natural endowments, but they are dragged down by acquired facilities. So the efficiency and taste of a local government will really play a decisive role in the development of a place. " I checked the map and Baidu. Chongli, Hebei Province belongs to Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province, 50 kilometers away from the central city of Zhangjiakou, 220 kilometers away from Beijing and 340 kilometers away from Tianjin. It is one of the main venues for snow sports in the 2022 Winter Olympic Games.

According to Xiang Shuai's logic, talents should be combined with infrastructure, so it must be that Chongli, Hebei Province has the potential to develop into a town with ice and snow characteristics. Chongli and Mudanjiang Snow Town in Heilongjiang Province are both "full of talents", and the natural snowfall conditions are superior. However, thanks to the blessing of the 2022 Winter Olympics, Chongli's infrastructure will develop greatly. After the completion of the high-speed railway running through Beijing, the distance between Chongli and Beijing will be greatly shortened, and Chongli will become the "back garden ski resort" in Beijing. At the same time, a large number of supporting facilities such as hotels are also under construction. International hotel giants have laid out worship ceremony in succession. In addition to the high-speed rail, the hotel and Chongli also built ski trails, which can be directly used for civilian use after the 2022 Winter Olympics, empowering the construction of ice and snow towns in the future. Comparatively speaking, the infrastructure of Xuexiang in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province is far behind, the traffic is inconvenient, the high-speed rail cannot connect major cities, and there is a lack of international hotels. The hotel broke out 20 17, which once led to a sharp drop in tourists. The $10,000 society is a society where labor-intensive industries have been greatly developed. The middle class pays more attention to the experience of travel, and tourism must take the best experience of tourists as the starting point to create an "experience economy". In the past, the idea of "once in a lifetime, killing whoever doesn't kill" no longer works, and tourists will vote with their feet.