What kind of aging problem will China face?

At present, China is facing the challenge of rapid aging. In 2005, for every 65,438+000 working adults in China, there were only 65,438+06 elderly people. This old-age dependency ratio will double to 32% in 2025 and double to 6 1% in 2050. By 2050, there will be 438 million people over the age of 60 in China, including 654.38+008 billion people over the age of 80, and the labor burden will triple in 2050. Population aging usually has two meanings: first, it refers to the process of the relative increase of the elderly population and its proportion in the total population; Second, it means that the social population structure is in an aging state and has entered an aging society. The general view in the world is that when the population over 60 years old accounts for 10% of the total population in a country or region, or the population over 65 years old accounts for 7% of the total population, it means that the population of this country or region is in an aging society. According to the data of China, in 2005, the proportion of people aged 60 and above in China was 1 654,38+0%, which was about half of the average level in developed countries. However, in the next few decades, the wave of aging will sweep across China, and the proportion of the elderly over 60 will increase rapidly. It is predicted that this proportion will reach 15% in 20 15 years, jump to 24% in 2030 and reach 33% in 2050. At present, many countries in the world are facing the challenge of aging, but the problem of getting old before getting rich is particularly serious in China. Demographically speaking, by 2030, the population structure of China will be more aging than that of the United States. With the aging of China, China must support non-workers with more workers' income. Now each old man is supported by 5.4 workers, and by 2050, the average burden of each worker will be three times the original. Dr Richard Jackson, a senior researcher at CSIS, pointed out that the premature aging of China means that China should provide wealth equal to the total expenditure of developed countries while developing part of its income and wealth. Such premature aging means that there is not enough time to build a modern welfare state. It is understood that the proportion of the elderly in the United States is equivalent to that in China, but the per capita income of the United States is four times that of China. In addition, Japan and South Korea have experienced an extremely rapid aging process, but they are much richer when facing the same demographic transition stage as China. China can be said to be the first big country to get old before getting rich. The accelerated aging of the population promotes the increase of the savings rate, indicating that the population approaching retirement is increasing, so the savings rate is also increasing accordingly. Fu, director and general manager of Everbright Prudential Fund Management Co., Ltd. pointed out that investors should help them implement their retirement plans through appropriate investment concepts and tools. In the Report on the Status of Pension Preparation in China organized by Everbright Prudential, the position of investors in the investment plan is revealed. According to the statistics of this report, 23% of China investors expect to retire before the age of 60. However, most investors and 69% investors in China have only started the preparation for five years or less. Some investors have not started saving for retirement when facing everyone's retirement dream. There are structural defects in the pension system. Although China now has a compulsory basic insurance system covering urban workers, it has not achieved full coverage, and the basic old-age insurance system has structural defects. At present, China's pension system has accepted the debts of the previous state-owned enterprise pension plan, and there are unfunded debts. In addition, the pension system operates under the guidance of the central government, but the local municipal, district or provincial social security departments pay or pay the pension, which means that the pension cannot flow and personal accounts cannot be transferred across regions. In addition, even if these contributions become savings, their income is far lower than the market income, and these accounts cannot produce enough replacement rate. Before 2004, only 65% of urban workers were paying fees and getting paid, or civil servants had a separate pension system; For the rural population, there is almost no formal old-age security now. If we add up the figures of public pensions, only 365,438+0% workers now enjoy public pensions, whether in urban or rural areas. For those who don't have a public pension system, they have very few choices. Although China has its own enterprise annuity, which is likely to be an important source of pension in the future, this system only accounts for a small part of workers in China. In 2007, only 9.3 million people paid enterprise annuities, accounting for only 3.2% of urban workers or 1.2% of the labor force. The "four-step" reform plan requires the government to carry out more fundamental reforms in order to achieve the goal of establishing an adequate and sustainable national pension system. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has provided a four-step plan. The first step is to establish an inclusive bottom line, which is paid by the government's tax revenue, so as to ensure the minimum income level for all the elderly in China, regardless of their employment or contribution records. Older people who have no other source of income are entitled to a welfare equivalent to 20% of the local average wage. Every time the income from other sources of the family increases by 5 yuan, the pension benefits will decrease by 1 yuan. When the income of the elderly reaches the local average wage level, the pension benefits will drop to zero. This decreasing way means that the bottom line can provide more benefits and help more elderly people, while the existing minimum living allowance can only ensure that the income is not lower than the poverty line. The second step is to let the whole society bear the cost of the basic pension system without funds. As long as the basic pension system is still under the pressure of no funds, it is impossible to solve the retirement challenge in China permanently. The proposal of the Center for Strategic and International Studies allows the central government to bear the cost directly. The central government should provide subsidies to local social security bureaus. At present, 65,438+05% of the basic pension payment should be gradually increased until 65,438+000% of the existing pension benefits are paid. In addition, the cost left by state-owned enterprises is a collective problem, which should be paid by the government's general tax sources, not by the workers' payroll. The third step is to transform the current two-level basic pension system into such a national system: government supervision, private institution management, and personal accounts for investment. Different from the current personal account, the reformed account will be completely solid and completely mobile, providing market returns for participants. According to this reform plan, the first pay-as-you-go system will gradually fade out, because its main purpose is to provide income security for the elderly, which can be more effectively realized through the new income test guarantee bottom line. At the same time, the second level of the system, that is, personal accounts, will be expanded. After this transformation, the total contribution rate of the reformed basic old-age insurance system will be 18% of the total salary, which is about 1/3 lower than the current 28%. Among them, 16% will go into personal account, and the remaining 2% will be classified as disability and widowed welfare. According to the plan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the system will be extended to rural areas in several stages, starting with township enterprises. The fourth step is to expand the coverage of supplementary old-age insurance through China's enterprise annuity system. The new national individual retirement account system will gradually fully guarantee the retirement income of most workers in China. High-income workers need to replenish their pension savings. The key point is that if China wants to encourage employees and employers to participate in the new private enterprise annuity system, it can start with streamlining the cumbersome licensing process of this system; Improve the tax system to make it clear and standardized; In addition, it is allowed to include trust arrangements to reduce the burden on SMEs. Although the plan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies needs considerable upfront investment, in the long run, its cost is much smaller than the current system, and it will bring great benefits when China is aging. Protecting the bottom line will save tens of millions of elderly people from poverty in their later years, and it is possible to avoid large-scale social unrest in an aging China.