Will rural passenger transport in Hubei become public transport in 2020?

Will rural passenger transport in Hubei become public transport in 2020?

I come from Hubei province. I was really pleased to see this topic, but after the joy, I became thoughtful again. It's not that the countryside can't pass the bus, but when can it pass?

Hubei is the thoroughfare of nine provinces, with developed transportation, high-speed, railway, plane, subway and every village. The people's living standard is not bad, and many livelihood projects have been done in the province. Speaking of rural public transport, I think it is not yet time, and it is not realistic for Hubei rural passenger transport to become a public transport in 2020. My views are as follows:

1. There is no bus service in the countryside. Although every village has the same highway now, cars can still pass on rural roads, but it is impossible to pass buses. This road is too narrow.

2. The countryside is too scattered. Now rural passenger transport can only go to the town, and there is no guarantee to come to the village. This is mainly because these villages are too scattered and disconnected. Some villages are still in a "dead end", and every village is not considered at all. The bus is even more impossible.

3. The cost of rural public transport is too high. Urban public transport is because people in the city are relatively concentrated, so it is more convenient for people to go to work in companies and enterprises, and the main demand is great. But in rural areas, there are few people in rural areas now, which is completely out of line with public transportation. In addition to "moving chairs", you must lose money.

As a Hubei native, I am very happy to see this news. Everyone knows that rural transportation is inconvenient. If there is a country bus. Then people will travel more conveniently. Although I personally hope to be able to drive such a rural bus, I think it is impossible to drive a rural bus.

In fact, even if there is no rural bus, all villages here basically have buses. With the country's increasing rural construction, from the initial "highway connecting every village" to "road cement hardening", to "network connecting every village", to "tap water connecting every village" and "bus connecting every village". After several years of hard work, all the rural areas here have basically realized the above-mentioned "village coverage".

Now almost all villages have buses, but I personally think it is too low to change buses into rural buses. Here, according to my own real feelings, this may not be a big reason:

First of all, most villages now have buses. The minibuses in our village have been in operation for more than 20 years, from the initial 20-odd to the present 10-odd, basically without interruption. Moreover, the minibus here runs four times a day in the county, twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon. It stands to reason that this driving frequency basically meets the requirements of rural people traveling here. Therefore, it is impossible to change minibuses into rural buses and increase the frequency of departure.

Second, there are not many people in rural areas, and it is a great waste of resources to transfer to public transportation. As a means of transportation, buses also have operating costs. In many rural areas, there are few people, and not many people travel every day. That will cause the daily operation of rural transportation to be at a loss, so no one wants to do such a long-term loss-making thing. In the past, the business of minibuses in our village was particularly good, and almost every trip was full. However, in recent years, buses are often dissatisfied or even empty.

Third, the number of private cars in rural areas has increased rapidly. In recent years, all kinds of cars have increased, competition has intensified, and the prices of cars have become cheaper. With the improvement of villagers' living standards, many families have bought their own cars. With a car at home, it is very convenient for the family to travel. However, it is precisely because of the increase of these cars that fewer and fewer people take minibuses. In the long run, few people will continue to take rural buses, so it will become more and more difficult to operate. Without money, naturally no one wants to continue to do this minibus.

Fourth, the investment is too large. As you can imagine, the flow of people in rural areas will only decrease. Too much money was invested in the national telephone bill, but in the end it became an unrealistic infrastructure. Then it will take up too much construction funds. In fact, there are still many places in the countryside that we need to continue to build and improve. For example, education, medical care, and old-age care. Each of these fields needs to spend too much money.

Through the above analysis, I personally feel that the possibility of rural public transportation in Hubei is too low, so it can be said that it is almost impossible.

Hubei province is surrounded by mountains in the east, west and north, with a low-lying plain in the middle. It can be said to be an incomplete small plain. More than 56% of the province is mountainous, 24% is hilly, and only 20% belongs to plain lake area. Although Hubei is located in the subtropical zone, most of it belongs to the subtropical monsoon humid climate because of its many mountains.

From this point, we can see that there are many scattered rural areas in the mountainous areas of Hubei, which also limits the underdeveloped transportation in Hubei, especially for remote rural areas with low population density. There are even some areas where there are no roads at all, and farmers can only rely on trams, motorcycles or tricycles as means of transportation.

At present, although Hubei is the thoroughfare of nine provinces and occupies an important position in the whole country, its economic development is limited by mountainous areas, and only some cities near the Yangtze River are relatively developed, so the transportation is very inconvenient for remote rural areas and sparsely populated places. This also makes the cost of road construction in these rural areas very high, so roads are not built in rural areas in some places, which also leads to bus congestion in these places.

In 2020, China will strive to achieve nationwide coverage, so that farmers can get on the bus at their doorstep. Therefore, it is expected that China will invest a lot of money this year to repair rural roads, improve the rural traffic environment and improve the convenience of farmers' travel.

After the outbreak in Hubei, the local economy will decline or decline rapidly. After all, it has not been unsealed because of the coronavirus epidemic. Many enterprises, construction sites, service industries, etc. They haven't returned to work yet, and some people haven't got jobs to make money. Migrant workers, in particular, are still waiting for Fu Gong's notice at home.

The coronavirus epidemic will lead to a sharp decline in Hubei's fiscal revenue, and it is even more difficult to build roads in relatively remote rural areas. After all, the overall utilization rate of these roads is not too high and a lot of costs need to be invested. Therefore, for those remote rural areas this year, the possibility of getting on the bus will not be too great, which needs to wait until Hubei's economy recovers.

The experience of more than 40 years of reform and opening up proves that if you want to get rich, you must build roads first. This is the most basic way to get rid of poverty and get rich in rural areas, so the traffic in our country is better than that in any other country. But this is mainly aimed at important traffic arteries, especially in developed areas, and the traffic is still very unfavorable for remote mountainous rural areas.

This year is a crucial year for tackling poverty. Everyone must get rid of poverty, and then these remote rural areas in Hubei will not fall behind. If roads are built again, these people will not get the benefits of getting rid of poverty. If there are really few people in the village and there are no superior resources to pay the bill, we still have to get out of this poor mountainous area. At least I can improve my life, increase my family's income and find a better place to work or live. At least the traffic can be solved. In fact, if the roads in Hubei are smooth and the road surface has hardened, buses are basically accessible. This is the practice of bus service in every village in Hubei since 20 15.

This is unlikely. After all, there are very few people visiting relatives and friends in rural areas, and they are all holidays, so buses are useless in rural areas, but passenger transportation is different. Passenger transport is set up to meet the needs of people going to the county seat or the urban area. Because only places with backward economic development can go to places with better economic development, for business or tourism, or for consumption and passenger transport, there is still a certain basis for survival. Public transportation does not have this condition. As the communication between villages, motorcycles and tricycles are enough. If it is public transport, it is useless. If local governments invest too much or too little, they will only lose too much financial funds. The key is to introduce foreign capital, attract investment and enhance the economic strength of the village. In this case, passenger transport can be turned into public transport. Because they are places with relatively strong economic development, such as Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shenzhen, and because they have no rural areas, rural areas are cities and places with relatively strong economic development, places with small population and relatively low economic development will come here to live, study, do business and spend money. To sum up, if Hubei Province is a place with backward economic development, it is unlikely to set up public transport in rural areas, but it is possible if it is a place with particularly strong economy.

Judging from the current situation, it is still difficult for Hubei Province to implement public transportation in rural areas in 2020. Geographically speaking, Hubei province is a mountainous and low-lying plain, which will cause many difficulties for road construction and opening to traffic. After all, the cost of road development and maintenance is very high. If you invest blindly for the sake of face, there will definitely be many negative effects. But in addition to this reason, the following reasons should also be important.

I learned from the news a few days ago that Hubei suffered great losses in the epidemic, and it needs the support of the state treasury to return to normal life after the epidemic. It can be seen that the budget of Hubei this year should be very tight, and the main task after the epidemic is to restore the economy and protect people's livelihood, so this matter of building roads and connecting buses may be suspended.

Bus departure is limited by time, but in rural areas, passengers are basically more flexible when the attendance rate is similar. If there are few people in the village, the bus still leaves by the point, and there are few people along the way, then this is a waste of public resources and a certain degree of self-harm, so public transportation will not be used instead of passenger transportation until it reaches the scale.

Passenger lines have basically won the bid, and each line has its own value. If the passenger transport is hastily removed and replaced by public transport, then the compensation for passenger transport is not a small expense. The most important thing is how to arrange the personnel, and everyone is happy if it is arranged properly. If it is not suitable, it will definitely cause some unstable factors. Therefore, in the case of lack of financial resources, it is difficult to realize passenger transport to public transport in 2020.

The above three points are aimed at the Hubei economy's answer to this question. Now Hubei is still in the key epidemic prevention and control area. If you really want to unseal it, it will be in mid-April at the earliest. However, if we want to restore the economy, it is a long way, so it is difficult to realize the vision of rural public transport replacing passenger transport in 2020.

A farmer from Enshi, Hubei wants to express his views on this matter. I think that in 2020, rural passenger transport in some areas of Hubei Province will become public transport. On a large scale, there will never be a situation in which all rural passenger transport becomes public transport.

Now there are three kinds of villages: village and market town, village and village, township and county. Villages and market towns are mainly connected by private vehicles used by farmers, such as motorcycles and tricycles, which is also the way for rural farmers to travel the most. Some farmers specialize in soliciting customers in rural areas to solve problems. They charge according to the number of people and the distance traveled, and there are carpooling, passenger transport or farmers picking them up between towns and counties. Now there are more and more exchanges between towns and counties, because many farmers buy houses in counties.

Last year, a village in our county changed to passenger transport, which can be said to be very successful. Let's analyze it below. The village is less than ten kilometers away from the county seat, and it takes more than ten minutes by car, which should be the main reason for its success. Moreover, local residents live on tea, and almost every household can earn a net profit of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan every year. Therefore, most families have bought cars, and there is little demand for passenger transport by car. These two conditions make the implementation of passenger transport in this village very popular. But it is not suitable for all rural areas.

The existing passenger transport in rural areas has existed for at least 20 years. I remember when I was in primary school, it was these people who were engaged in transportation who were carrying passengers now. Under the existing structure, if rural transport is blindly changed to passenger transport, it will definitely have a great impact on the market. Everyone who has lived in the countryside knows that rural passenger transport is subsidized by oil price every year, which will make many people have no income in the off-season.

However, the arrival of passenger transport will make farmers who once relied on passenger transport lose the opportunity to make money, and the survival of these farmers and their families will become a problem. A few years ago, where I went to school, the tricycles on the street were all changed into electric cars, and as a result, many tricycle owners opposed it. Finally, the relevant departments promised to recycle their vehicles and give some unemployment subsidies to solve the problem.

Finally, in rural areas, many families are old people and children who can't drive, so if something happens, they will definitely ask for a car to solve it. However, passenger transport is scheduled, and if the time is asymmetric, it may cause irreparable harm to these people.

Improving rural travel conditions and implementing rural public transportation is a measure to benefit the people and make rural travel more convenient, affordable and comfortable.

But it depends on the situation in each place.

In my opinion, the transformation of rural passenger transport can not be across the board, and priority should be given to the implementation of conditional class lines.

One is a short-distance line.

The second is the township line connecting urban and rural areas.

Third, the road conditions are good, passing through the class line with concentrated population and large passenger flow in towns and villages.

I think anyone who meets the above three points can implement public transportation.

However, it will take a long time to realize all rural passenger transport in the province.

I don't think there will be rural passenger transport in most places, which means the driving distance is far from the urban area. There are few stations. If you change buses, you must first ensure that the population is relatively dense. An average of 2 km to 3 km requires a bus stop, which is simply impossible in many rural areas. The rural population is relatively small. A bus runs on the road, few people sit on it, which is a waste of resources.

Now the township passenger transport is getting fat, and the price is rising constantly. It should be replaced by a bus! !