How to identify entrepreneurial risks

1. Hypothetical conditional analysis method

This is a method to identify and discover the risks of innovative projects by assuming various conditions and achievements in the planning and decision-making process of innovative projects, and then comparing the real-time situation of innovative projects with the assumptions in the plan. Because there are many uncertain conditions and factors in the planning and decision-making of innovative projects, people have to make necessary assumptions about these uncertain conditions and factors in the planning of innovative projects.

If the actual situation deviates from these assumptions in the subsequent implementation of innovative projects, it means that there are risks in innovative projects. Therefore, people must use this "hypothesis analysis" to identify and discover the risks of innovative projects in real time. Because many risks of innovative projects are caused by people's assumptions in planning and decision-making inconsistent with the objective reality, this method is one of the fundamental methods to identify the risks of innovative projects.

2. Risk checklist method

This is a method that uses the risk management experience of similar innovative projects in history to check and identify the risks of specific innovative projects at different time points during the implementation of innovative projects by first designing the risk checklist of specific innovative projects, and then comparing with the risk checklist, so as to check and identify the risks of specific innovative projects at different time points. This method requires people to use the risk checklist, and identify the risks against the checklist at the checkpoint where innovative projects are implemented.

This method is not only simple and practical, but also a very effective risk identification method for innovative projects. In addition, this method is a dynamic risk identification method of innovative projects, and the risk management of innovative projects needs dynamic risk identification work and identification results, because innovative projects are constantly developing and changing, and each time point will have different project risks.

3. Future scenario analysis method

This is a method to identify the risks of innovative projects by assuming, describing and analyzing the state, environment or scenario of innovative projects at a certain moment in the future, and it is a method needed to identify the risks of innovative projects with high uniqueness, innovation and uncertainty. Assumptions and descriptions of innovative project scenarios can be given in the form of charts, words or mathematical formulas. For the risk identification of innovative projects involving many influencing factors and complicated analysis and calculation, people can even analyze this future scenario with the help of computer scenario simulation system.

When using computer scenario simulation system to identify the risks of innovative projects, it is necessary to give the assumptions and descriptions of innovative project scenarios, then find out the influencing factors of the development and change of project environment, and finally analyze and give the risks of innovative projects caused by the changes of innovative project scenarios.

4. System decomposition method

This is a method to decompose a complex innovation project system into a series of easy-to-understand subsystems or system elements by using the principle and method of system decomposition, so as to analyze and identify the subsystems, system elements and risks of the whole innovation project.

For example, a new chemical fertilizer product development and innovation project needs to decompose the risks of this new product innovation project into market risk, investment risk, management risk, technology risk, resource and raw material supply risk, environmental pollution risk and other subsystems according to the characteristics of the innovation project itself, and then these subsystems can be further decomposed, for example, the market risk can be further decomposed into substitute product risk, insufficient demand risk and so on. So as to comprehensively identify the risks of the whole system of the product innovation project.

5. Project flow chart method

The innovation project flow chart will show the innovation project workflow and the relationship between the innovation project workflows, including the innovation project system flow chart, the innovation project implementation flow chart and the innovation project operation flow chart. In the identification of innovation project risks, people can use these project flowcharts to analyze and identify innovation project risks.

This project risk identification method is a method to identify the project risk by analyzing the steps and contents of the whole project workflow, so it is effective to identify the project risk caused by the relationship between nodes and processes in the whole process of innovative projects. This method can analyze and identify the risks of innovative projects according to the project stage, project work package and specific activities (or work) in the project process, which is very effective for identifying the risks of innovative projects caused by work mistakes.

6. Brainstorming method

This is an unstructured method and a way to identify the risks of innovative projects through meetings with the help of expert experience. When using this method, experts and analysts attending the meeting should be allowed to speak freely and jointly analyze and identify various risks existing in innovative projects.