Why did Dayun choose Ali?

Data Support | Pythagoras Big Data

Alibaba invested in Dayun, and it was finally announced. The equity is not 10% as previously rumored, but 2%. The equity ratio is not high, but the significance of this matter is that Alibaba has finally completed the investment layout of four links and one access.

Some people who eat melons are worried that Ali will express the rivers and lakes in a unified way. But in my opinion, this is a false question that is not worth refuting. Not to mention that hundreds of small and medium-sized express delivery companies such as China Post, SF Express and JD.com Logistics don't agree with it, even Unicom may not agree with it: Ali invested in Tongda's shares account for more than 10% on average, which is not even a major shareholder in most express delivery companies.

The real question worth chewing is, why did Dayun choose Ali? Understand this problem, we will understand the general direction of the express logistics industry in the future.

In the last two months, two unknown new faces have appeared in the domestic express delivery industry: group mail express and extreme rabbit express. But behind them, there are two familiar figures: JD.COM and Pinduoduo.

Liu Ye, who has always been proud of self-operated logistics, has repeatedly ridiculed the joining express represented by Tongda Department. However, recently, Jingdong Logistics launched its own franchise express in a low-key way: public mail express.

Coincidentally, many users in Pinduoduo found that the courier they received was sent by a courier named "Extreme Rabbit". Li Jie, the founder of Extreme Rabbit Express, comes from the door of Duan Yongping, the invisible boss of the investment community. The extreme rabbit model is also a franchise system.

I used to chat with the middle-level buddies in the courier company. Among various business indicators, what is the most important indicator for express delivery companies? The buddy answered without thinking: market share. You can ignore profits for the time being, but there is no scale. Give me death. This can be seen from the fact that Tongda has been grabbing the market through price wars so far.

Many people don't know JD. COM's non-self-operated express delivery is also undertaken by Tongda Department, accounting for about half of the logistics volume of the whole platform in JD.COM. Today, these two platforms have their own lineages. What do you think of Tongda?

I'm not saying that Dayun accepted Ali's investment because of mass mailing and the appearance of polar rabbits. On the contrary, there is no direct relationship between them. Because it is said that this investment was completed a few months ago, but the shareholding ratio did not meet the disclosure standards and has not been announced. At that time, neither posts nor rabbits existed.

The real core point is that in today's increasingly close integration of logistics and business flow, we must realize a deeper integration with business flow in order to seize the most cutting-edge opportunities for change. But now, business flows are beginning to differentiate. Which business stream do you want to capture? If the courier company wants to get the ticket, it has to make plans early.

Where to do business? This is an old problem, which has existed for more than ten years.

In 2005, Yu Weijiao, chairman of Tong Yuan, had a headache for this problem every day. Tong Yuan, together with Dayun, Zhongtong and Huitong, lives under the aura of big brother Shentong. The sum of all private express delivery services, plus one piece is the amount of Shentong, and other younger brothers are helpless.

Many people know the following story: Yu Weijiao's wife Zhang Xiaojuan bought a fur coat on Taobao. I didn't expect the goods taken on the fifteenth day of the twelfth lunar month to be received before the New Year's Eve. She was very angry and muttered, "This Taobao is too slow, and the daylily is cold."

On the side of Yu Weijiao, a tingle: "The opportunity is just around the corner!" On the 15th day of the first month, Yu Wei Jiao went to Hangzhou to visit Ma Yun. Tong Yuan is not the only one who talks about cooperation with Taobao. Only Taobao suggested that the express delivery price be reduced from 18 yuan to 12 yuan, and only Yu Wei Jiao gritted her teeth and agreed. In 2006, Tong Yuan became the first private courier to embrace Ali.

Eating crabs has an immediate effect. It is said that at its peak, Tong Yuan once occupied more than half of Taobao's express delivery business. Seeing Tong Yuan's business, other bosses of Tonglu Gang, who had accused Yu Weijiao of recruiting at a low price before, also rushed to the Taobao headquarters in Hangzhou.

Since then, the history of China Express has been rewritten and embarked on the road of high growth that continues to this day. In 2009, the national express delivery business volume was only 65.438+0.85 billion pieces, and in 2006.5438+09, the figure was 63.52 billion pieces, far exceeding the sum of the United States, Japan and Europe.

In terms of equity cooperation with Ali, Tong Yuan is also one of the fastest runners. In 20 15, after receiving the capital injection from Ali, Yu Weijiao bought 15 Boeing aircraft in one breath, setting the largest plane "group purchase" in the history of private express delivery. Tong Yuan became the only person with an aviation fleet in Tongda Department, cutting off other Tonglu brothers in the same period.

Under the strong blessing of Ali, this year's Tong Yuan ushered in a bright moment:

Join hands with Alibaba and Rookie Network to hold the cross-border maiden voyage ceremony of international cargo charter flights in Shanghai, open up a number of cross-border express channels, and realize a larger and faster international express circulation platform.

The first China (Hangzhou) International Express Industry Conference was held in Tonglu, and Yu Weijiao gave a keynote speech on behalf of private express delivery enterprises in China.

Tong Yuan's "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve" business volumes both reached the top, setting a new industry record;

Before the end of the year, Yu Weijiao announced to the outside world that the average daily turnover of Tong Yuan in 20 15 has exceeded10 million, and its market share has jumped to the top in the industry.

Other smart people saw it. How could it go on like this? So they released their shares to Ali. Is this process much like ten years ago?

The rookie network born on 20 13 was named by Ma Yun himself. The name "rookie" is very low-key. After all, Shentong, the first private express delivery company in China, was established in 1993, 20 years earlier than the rookie.

Tongda and Shunfeng are so mature, why do you need a rookie? What should I do if I set up a logistics company but don't send a courier? At that time, many people could not understand it.

This is because they don't understand the biggest hidden danger that Taobao faced at that time. In 20 10, the number of "double 1 1" packages exceeded 100000, which caught the courier company off guard. Like a flood, parcels poured into the transit warehouse of the courier company, and the backlog was repeated. Finally, the delivery time of the package has changed from the usual one to two days to one to two weeks, or even up to one month. Consumers and businesses are complaining.

Because it was tiring and losing money to do the double eleven at that time, the courier company was also miserable and once wanted to return. It is said that Zhang Yong, the "father of Double Eleven" and then the head of Taobao Mall (later Tmall), personally came to work, and the courier company also took the initiative. So that Ma Yun expressed concern at the "Logistics Partner Development Conference" held on 20 1 1: "I think Taobao will hit 1 trillion next year, but the biggest obstacle is logistics."

In other words, how big Taobao can develop depends largely on the express delivery ability of Tongda Department. Except for the leaders of Tongda Department, I'm afraid no one in this world wants Tongda Department to advance by leaps and bounds more than Ma Yun.

A rookie who is determined to make China Express go digital, the first digital product he made after his establishment is the electronic face sheet for express delivery launched on 20 14. Each electronic face sheet has a unique identification code, and the data of express delivery can be uploaded by scanning the gun, which is the starting point of express delivery digitalization.

After the appearance of this product, the courier of Tongda Department gave a thumbs-up while closing the door without responding. There is a simple reason. If someone else controls the express delivery, aren't you still helping to count the money after you are sold? When Tong was a rookie, he invited the elder brothers of Tonglu to Taiji Temple for tea. The content of the tea party is very simple, which mainly clarifies two points: first, the electronic face sheet is only a product tool, and the right to issue the sheet is still in the hands of the courier company; Second, novices will not rob the cake in the express delivery market.

Tongda people began to promote the use of rookie electronic face sheets. It was Zhongtong, the younger brother of Tongda Department, who caught this round of technical bonus. In order to promote electronic panels, the most radical methods are used. Lai, the chairman of the board of directors, personally made a decision and took the lead in subsidizing 20 cents per order for businesses using rookie electronic face sheets. In 20 15 years, the utilization rate of Zhongtong electronic bills was less than 10%, and exceeded 90% in the second year.

This decision has played a vital role in Zhongtong to seize the market and enhance its business volume. Zhongtong has launched automatic sorting equipment in the national express distribution center while the iron is hot, and intelligent sorting and intelligent logistics have also developed. There is a simple reason. Only with electronic face sheets can automatic sorting be realized, otherwise economies of scale cannot be realized and it is difficult to make money.

The digitalization of logistics also laid the foundation for reducing costs and increasing efficiency after Zhongtong. Zhongtong almost accompanied him to the last seat, and later came to the highest level of Tongda Department. Its net profit almost surpassed that of SF, and it only took four years. This can be seen from the technical dividend that Ali can bring.

It has been ten years since the impulse of express delivery companies to directly touch the business flow. Take SF, the industry leader, as an example. Entering a convenience store to be a hacker, trying to be a master on the e-commerce platform SF, and then laying out rich electronic food unmanned shelves are all burning money.

The joining mode of Tongda Zhongtong and Baishi is relatively flexible and relatively simple in business process. For example, Baishi Neighborhood and Zhongtong Store are essentially based on express delivery, and have done a little superposition service on the basis of express delivery.

No matter SF or Tongda, the retrogression from logistics to business flow has not run out of a mature model. On the contrary, the frequency of emerging business flows is getting faster and faster, and the courier company can't keep up, and the next round of dividends may be empty.

Cross-border e-commerce has already changed from a niche emerging format to a quasi-mainstream online shopping model. New retail is in the ascendant, and live e-commerce and C2M have once again become the focus. What will be the business form in ten years? Nobody knows yet.

But on 20 17, Professor Ceng Ming of Ali made a prediction that the next five years would belong to S2b2c. S is a super supply chain platform, which greatly improves the efficiency of the supply side. B refers to the big platform corresponding to 1 10,000, 1 10,000 or even higher than110,000. S empowers B to complete the service for customer C together with B.

This prediction, which is rarely mentioned nowadays, is quietly becoming a reality with the change of C2M's face.

Taobao C2M announced that in the next three years, relying on its core digital capabilities and Taobao special edition, it will help 1 0,000 industrial belt factories upgrade to "super factories" with an output value of over 100 million yuan, create new orders for industrial belt enterprises, and focus on building 1 0 digital industrial belt clusters with an output value of over 10 billion yuan nationwide.

The unexpected COVID-19 epidemic in early 2020 accelerated the pace of industrial belt factories accessing the super supply chain platform. Taobao C2M recently announced that there are currently 1.2 million merchants, of which 4 1% are factory direct supply stores, which means that more than 500,000 industrial belt factories have opened stores in Taobao Special Edition.

It is too early to say whether C2M will become the mainstream supply chain platform model in ten years. But behind it, it is undoubtedly in line with the macro background of supply-side reform to empower manufacturers to serve consumers with a super supply chain platform S.

This means that although the super supply chain platform does not own the ownership of goods, it can become a super consignor and a super large source of goods for express delivery business by virtue of its supply chain planning ability. For the courier company, what this means is self-evident.

Speaking of this layer, why Dayun chose Ali, the answer is obvious.