Multiplier effect of tourism income

The concept of multiplier originated in the second half of19th century. 193 1 year, the British economist Kahn first put forward the multiplier theory. Later, Keynes further improved this theory. Multiplier is also translated into multiple, which mainly refers to the ratio of a variable in economic activities to other economic quantities and the changes in economic aggregate caused by it.

Multiplier theory shows that in economic activities, the change of one economic quantity can cause the change of other economic quantities, and the change of the final economic aggregate is several times that of the original economic variable. We call this phenomenon multiplier effect. In economic activities, the multiplier effect is produced because all industries of the national economy are interrelated and promote each other. For example, injecting an investment into a certain department will not only increase the income of the department, but also cause a chain reaction in all relevant departments, and eventually generate national income several times that of the investment.

According to Keynes's multiplier principle, the calculation formula of multiplier is as follows:

Where: MPC-marginal propensity to consume;

MPs- marginal propensity to save;

MPM- marginal import trend.

As can be seen from the above formula, the multiplier is directly proportional to the marginal propensity to consume and inversely proportional to the marginal propensity to save and the marginal propensity to import. For example, when a sum of money flows into the economic system of a certain area, it will lead to the economic operation of a series of enterprises and institutions, which will have a chain reaction in economic activities and lead to the increase of social and economic benefits in this area. If the money is saved or used to buy imported materials, so that the money leaves the economic system of the region, it will reduce the intensity of economic development in the region and reduce the multiplier effect in the region.

Second, the multiplier effect of tourism revenue.

The multiplier effect of tourism income refers to the chain reaction of various economic sectors caused by the investment in tourism by tourist destination countries or tourist destinations, which leads to the doubling of regional economic aggregate. It should be pointed out that the multiplier effect of tourism income must be based on a certain marginal propensity to consume, while marginal propensity to save and marginal propensity to import reduce the role of tourism income in the local economic system, thus reducing the multiplier effect in this respect.

Through primary distribution and redistribution, tourism income has the following three stages of influence on economic development:

The first stage, the direct influence stage. That is, tourists' consumption in tourist destinations directly injects funds into core tourism enterprises and departments, and hotels, travel agencies, restaurants, shops, scenic spots, transportation and communication departments get certain income in the initial distribution of tourism income.

The second stage, the indirect influence stage. That is, core tourism departments and enterprises purchase production and living materials from relevant departments and enterprises in the process of reproduction, and governments at all levels invest the tax collected from core tourism enterprises in other enterprises and institutions, so that relevant departments and enterprises can benefit from the redistribution of tourism income.

The third stage, the stage of expanding influence. That is, tourism-related departments and enterprises purchase a large number of means of production and means of subsistence in the process of reproduction, thus promoting the development of more departments and enterprises. It is through repeated distribution and redistribution that tourism revenue has continuously produced joint effects and comprehensive benefits to the national economy.

The increase of tourism income in a country or region will cause the increase of national income in that country or region. This relationship can be expressed by y=kx, where y is the gross national income, x is the tourism income, and k is the proportional coefficient between them, that is, the multiplier. For example, the marginal propensity to consume in a certain region is 80%, that is, 80% of the tourism income runs in the economic system of the region, while 20% of the tourism income is stored or used for importing materials, that is, 20% of the tourism income leaves the economic system of the region. According to the multiplier calculation formula K= 1/( 1-0.8) or 65438+. If the marginal propensity to consume is 70%, the marginal propensity to save is 10%, and the marginal propensity to import is 20%, then k =1(1-0.7) or1(0.1+0.2) ≈.

We can also use the following types of multiplier models to analyze the impact of tourism income on all aspects of social economy:

1. Operating income multiplier. That is the proportional relationship between the increase of tourism operating income and the increase of other operating income caused by it. Multiplier indicates the influence of the development of tourism in a certain area on the operating income of that area.

Government revenue multiplier. That is, the proportional relationship between the increase of tourism revenue and the net increase of local government fiscal revenue. The net increase of government revenue refers to the balance of taxes and various incomes obtained by the government from tourism minus the government's investment in tourism. This multiplier is mainly used to measure the impact of tourism economic activities on national and regional fiscal revenue.

3. Employment multiplier. That is, the ratio of the increase in tourism revenue to the number of direct and indirect employment created by it. Multiplier indicates the influence of a certain amount of tourism income in a certain area on employment opportunities in that area. Specifically, the ratio of the increase of tourism professionals in a certain period to the increase of tourism income in the same period is the employment opportunities provided by unit tourism income.

4. Residents' income multiplier. That is, the increase of tourism income is proportional to the income of residents in a certain area. This multiplier reflects the impact of tourism development on residents' income.

5. Multiplier of import amount. That is, the ratio between the growth of tourism revenue and the resulting increase in imports. Multiplier shows the interactive relationship between the increase of materials and equipment imported from abroad by relevant departments and enterprises and the increase of tourism income.

In a word, according to the multiplier effect of tourism income, we can comprehensively measure the impact of tourism development on the national economy, and more scientifically determine the development goals of the national economy and the development strategy of tourism.

Third, the loss of tourism foreign exchange.

The leakage of tourism foreign exchange refers to the decrease of tourism foreign exchange income due to the import of goods, foreign loans and services by the relevant departments and enterprises in the destination country or destination in order to develop tourism.

From the formulas of K= 1/( 1-MPC) and K= 1/(MPS+MPM), we can see that the tourism multiplier effect is related to both the marginal propensity to save and the marginal propensity to import. The greater the MPS or MPM, the smaller the tourism multiplier effect, and vice versa.

In economically underdeveloped countries or regions, tourism comprehensive facilities are relatively backward. To develop international tourism business, it is necessary to import related materials and equipment from abroad, and introduce foreign advanced technology and management talents, which will consume a lot of foreign exchange and cause losses in tourism foreign exchange. Specifically, the loss of tourism foreign exchange mainly comes from the following five aspects:

1. Foreign exchange for building tourism infrastructure and importing necessary equipment and raw materials.

Foreign exchange is used to build new tourist hotels and import necessary equipment and raw materials.

13. Paying the management fees of foreign investors and the salaries of foreigners in tourism enterprises has caused a lot of foreign exchange losses.

To develop tourism, in addition to national investment and domestic financing, foreign loans are also needed to repay the principal and interest year by year, resulting in a large number of foreign exchange losses.

5. Importing related consumer goods to meet the needs of tourists and employees of some tourism enterprises has also caused a lot of foreign exchange losses.

The degree of foreign exchange loss in tourism shows a country's economic strength and scientific and technological level. To reduce the loss of foreign exchange in tourism, we must first vigorously develop the economy and improve the quality and scientific and technological content of products. Secondly, we should actively cultivate modern management talents in the tourism industry and gradually reduce the number of foreign management groups and managers. Furthermore, it is necessary to strengthen the macro-control mechanism of international payments, improve foreign exchange management regulations, and prevent the loss of foreign exchange.

In short, the stronger the host country's economic strength and the higher the level of science and technology, the greater the multiplier effect of tourism income and the less the loss of tourism foreign exchange; On the contrary, the lower the multiplier effect of tourism income, the more foreign exchange loss of tourism. Therefore, vigorously developing the economy and enhancing the country's comprehensive national strength are the fundamental guarantee for the sustainable development of tourism. Only in this way can the multiplier effect of tourism income be maximized and the loss of tourism foreign exchange be minimized.