BYD's "double-edged sword", can the blade battery defeat Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. and Tesla?

Editor | Egg Manager

Production | project financing

On May 1, the first batch of four BYD K8S pure electric double-decker buses officially started in Jinshan District, Shanghai. Facing the tourist craze of the first short holiday after the domestic epidemic, BYD K8S was put into operation as a tourist bus, which was also the first pure electric double-decker bus fleet introduced from Shanghai, which naturally attracted considerable attention and was highly accepted by tourists.

As we all know, behind this lively new scene, BYD is facing unprecedented competitive pressure.

After the rising star Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. surpassed the market share of power batteries, BYD's sales of new energy vehicles for many years were also taken away by Tesla in 20 19.

Correspondingly, BYD's profits continued to decline. On the evening of April 2 1 9, BYD released the 20 19 financial report, showing that the annual revenue was12,773.9 billion yuan, down1.78% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies decreased by 465,438+0.93% year-on-year to 65,438+06./kloc-0.5 billion yuan, a five-year low.

In 2020, BYD, unwilling to lag behind, launched the lithium ferrous phosphate blade battery ambitiously, with the intention of changing the dependence of the power battery industry on ternary batteries and selling it on BYD's high-end model Han EV. On April 20th, many media reported that BYD Korea officially opened the reservation, with an estimated starting price of 290,000 yuan, including EV (pure electric) and DM (plug-in hybrid) versions.

However, Tesla and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., the main competitors of BYD's two major businesses, are gaining momentum and are working together to "do things". Can the combination of blade battery and Han EV win the competition with them?

In the field of power batteries, BYD finally showed its ambition and fighting spirit again.

On March 29th, BYD released the blade battery made of lithium ferrous phosphate cathode material, pointing the "needle tip" at ternary lithium battery, which was also interpreted by the outside world as a "bright sword" for contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. taking ternary route.

At the press conference entitled "Blade Battery Appears in the World", Wang Chuanfu, the founder, chairman and president of BYD, bluntly said that in the field of new energy passenger cars, many enterprises were caught in the comparison of mileage, which led to the irrational pursuit of energy density of power batteries, completely deviating from the development route of power battery industry.

Energy density is an important factor to determine the cruising range of new energy vehicles. Generally speaking, under the premise of the same energy consumption and the same battery volume or mass, the higher the energy density of the battery, the higher the cruising range of the car.

The energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery is not as good as that of ternary lithium battery, and the subsidy policy is inclined to the high energy density of battery system, which leads to the ternary materials with higher energy density gradually becoming the mainstream of power battery development under the background of mileage anxiety of new energy vehicles, and lithium iron phosphate battery is ignored.

According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the total installed capacity of domestic power batteries in 20 19 was 62.2GWh, up 9.2% year-on-year. Among them, the total installed capacity of ternary batteries was 40.5GWh, up 22.5% year-on-year; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was 20.2GWh, down 9.0% year-on-year.

A typical case is: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., a rising star who takes the ternary route, surpassed BYD, the "battery king" who focuses on lithium ferrous phosphate, from 20 17 and became the new overlord in the field of power batteries.

However, the service life, safety and stability of lithium iron phosphate battery are incomparable with ternary lithium battery.

"In the past few years, due to the uneven level of technology and quality control of different enterprises in the battery industry, coupled with the characteristics of ternary materials themselves, the spontaneous combustion and even deflagration of electric vehicles have increased significantly, exposing the safety problems of ternary batteries with high energy density." Wang Chuanfu pointed out.

Safety is the "killer" of BYD blade battery. The test video played at BYD's press conference showed that the ternary lithium battery exploded and burned violently during the acupuncture experiment. Ordinary lithium iron phosphate block battery produces a lot of smoke; The blade battery does not burn or smoke, and the surface temperature is below 60 degrees.

Wang Chuanfu even vowed: "New energy vehicles equipped with blade batteries will completely erase the word' spontaneous combustion' from the dictionary of new energy vehicles."

Blade batteries have also made great efforts to improve the endurance of electric vehicles. Through structural innovation, the battery module is skipped when assembling the battery pack, and the space utilization rate of the battery pack is improved from the traditional 40% to more than 60%. This means that in the same space, the blade battery can carry more batteries, thus improving the energy density of the battery pack and achieving the cruising range equivalent to that of the ternary lithium battery.

Mock told Bullet Finance that the blade battery belongs to the level of manufacturing technology (innovation), and its essence is square lamination (battery). This technology should have no problem in lithium iron and ternary materials.

"The reason why it was first used in lithium ferrous phosphate, as far as I know, may be that China power battery enterprises such as BYD started from lithium ferrous phosphate. For the application of new technologies, it will be safer to choose a relatively large one. " Mock further analyzed.

According to media reports, the cruising range of Korean electric vehicles and blade batteries is as high as 605 kilometers. According to the comparison of Bullet Finance, this data far exceeds the battery life of the domestic Tesla Model 3 standard battery life upgrade version of 445 kilometers, which is close to the battery life of the domestic Tesla Model 3 rear-drive long battery life version of 668 kilometers.

However, it is obvious that the introduction of blade batteries is only the first step for BYD to regain lost ground in the field of power batteries. The former "battery boss" has a longer-term strategic plan in the field of power batteries.

According to Wang Chuanfu, as an independent sub-brand of BYD, Foday Department includes five subsidiaries: Foday Battery, Foday Power, Foday Technology, Foday Vision and Foday Mould, which is a complete supporting system for auto parts.

Among the Foday series, Foday battery is the most eye-catching one on the market. Its predecessor was BYD Lithium Battery Co., Ltd., which was established in 1998. Responsible for supplying power batteries for BYD Auto. Blade battery is the first heavy product released by Foday Battery.

If the blade battery is BYD's first cut into the power battery market, Foday battery is undoubtedly the "tool holder". For the emergence of this "tool holder", outside speculation is likely to pave the way for the spin-off and listing of BYD's power battery business.

BYD's split power battery business has been brewing for a long time. As early as 2065438+May 2007, it was reported that "BYD wants to split the power battery module and carry out the division system reform". At that time, a middle-level manager inside BYD revealed to the media that "it was decided to split the battery business as early as the beginning of last year." Since then, both Wang Chuanfu and BYD officials have confirmed that it is expected that the battery business will be split and listed independently around 2022.

However, it is not easy to split the power battery business. Regarding the latest progress, a staff member of BYD Securities Affairs Department told Bullet Finance that the split is still being actively deployed, and the reasons affecting the split involve many aspects. "But it may not be far from what Mr. Wang (Wang Chuanfu) said."

Wang Chuanfu hopes to change the existing pattern of the power battery industry through blade batteries. "I firmly believe that blade batteries will change the industry's dependence on ternary batteries, return the technical route of power batteries to the right path, and redefine the safety standards of new energy vehicles." He said with confidence.

Whether the blade battery can change the mainstream pattern of ternary lithium battery in the new energy automobile industry is also a hot topic in the market recently.

Compared with bullet finance, blade battery is definitely a development direction of automobile battery, but it will not affect the overall development trend of iron, lithium and ternary batteries, because the current lamination (process) production efficiency is not high.

"It should be used in lithium iron phosphate batteries in a short time, with energy density close to ternary 523 and cheaper at the same time. Therefore, the installation opportunities of lithium iron phosphate batteries may increase significantly this year. But in the long run, there is no way for lithium ferrous phosphate to improve the energy density of the battery through material improvement, and ternary is possible. Ternary is now dominated by 523, and may soon transition to 8 1 1. After that, you can transition to 9 series and become 4 series, and the energy density will be further improved. " Mock said.

From a comparable point of view, in the future, energy density is still a very important consideration index in the field of power batteries. In the field of passenger cars, the future is definitely ternary, and lithium ferrous phosphate may still only be used in some common fields such as electric buses.

"Almost all the car brands you can think of are discussing the technical cooperation of blade batteries with us." He Long, vice president of BYD and chairman of Foday Battery, said at the press conference.

Behind the eagerness to announce good results is BYD Power Battery's desire for external customers.

Looking back on the "chasing after me" between BYD and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in recent years, it is found that the reason why Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. can overtake on the curve of power battery is not only related to betting on the runway, but also lies in its completely different opening strategy and self-sufficiency from BYD.

The opening of contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. has made it have many users, and at the same time squeezed BYD's living space on the battery, making it quickly king. The bankruptcy of BYD not only limited the development of its own power battery, but also further aggravated the crisis faced by its new energy vehicles to a certain extent: every cooperation between Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and car companies is a strong alliance between BYD's "enemies".

According to the statistics of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., there are more than 4,600 models in the effective catalogue of new energy vehicles published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology from 2065,438 to 2009, of which 1.900 models are equipped with power batteries, accounting for about 4 1.5%, which is the power battery manufacturer with the most supported models.

After BYD gradually opened the export of power batteries on 20 17, although it has established cooperative relations with Changan Automobile, Dongfeng Automobile, Chengdu Bus and Li, compared with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., there is still a big gap in the number of external customers. The establishment of the Foday department means that BYD has taken a new step from self-sufficiency to openness.

However, we should face up to the fact that although BYD has high morale, the competition situation faced by its two major businesses, power batteries and new energy vehicles, is still very severe. The two are complementary. The increase in sales of new energy vehicles drives the installed capacity of power batteries, and self-produced power batteries reduce the production cost of new energy vehicles. In the early stage of development, these two businesses can hold a group and climb to the top one after another.

But it is not easy to fight the mountains and rivers, and it is even harder to defend them. After the power battery business was surpassed by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., the position of BYD's new energy vehicle boss was also replaced by Tesla.

In 20 19, BYD sold 229,500 new energy vehicles, down 7.39% year-on-year. Tesla sold 367,500 vehicles, surpassing BYD and becoming the global new energy vehicle sales champion.

This year 1 and February, the impact of the epidemic made the automobile market, which has been declining for two consecutive years, even more depressed.

In March, the auto sales rebounded, and BYD's new energy vehicles achieved sales of 1.23 million units, returning to the position of sales champion; Tesla has achieved the sales of 1.02 million vehicles with only one Model 3, which can be described as pressing step by step. In the sales ranking of a single model, Model3 has 5094 more vehicles than BYD Qin EV, which ranks second.

Tesla set up a super factory in China and received new energy subsidies, which helped it to seize the market. The obvious change is that the price of Tesla cars has been continuously lowered.

On May 1 day, Bullet Finance learned from Tesla China official website that due to China's latest subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the price of domestic Model 3 was adjusted again after the subsidy.

Official website information shows that the basic selling price of domestic Model 3 standard endurance upgrade is adjusted to 29 1.80 yuan. If the current new energy subsidy is deducted, the subsidized price is 27 1.550 yuan.

Before 65438+ 10, Tesla has lowered the basic car price of the domestic Model 3 standard endurance upgrade from 356,000 yuan to 324,000 yuan. According to this price, Tesla * * * reduced the price by 52,000 yuan.

From the positioning point of view, BYD is biased towards the low-end and Tesla has always been a high-end positioning, but the launch of BYD Korea has narrowed the gap between the two. According to media reports, Han is a high-end model launched by BYD, with an estimated starting price of 290,000 yuan. From this point of view, the price of Model 3 standard battery life upgraded model is even lower than that of Korea, and BYD's price advantage is no longer.

Regarding Tesla's momentum, the staff of BYD Securities Affairs Department told Bullet Finance that the company is actively optimizing its industrial structure, but it will not consider increasing sales space by drastically reducing prices in the future, "because it has confidence in future sales." The person said.

However, the most embarrassing thing is that BYD's two main competitors, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Tesla, are cooperating to "get things done". In February this year, the two sides signed a two-year lithium-ion power battery supply agreement.

It is speculated that Tesla will purchase the lithium ferrous phosphate CTP battery newly developed by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., which belongs to the same technology as BYD's blade battery. Some insiders believe that Tesla's orders will bring about a 20% increase in shipments for Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., and the battery supply of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. will also provide Tesla with further price reduction space.

There is no doubt that BYD has been attacked.

In addition to Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., BYD also faces competition from foreign rivals. International giants such as Panasonic, LG Chem, Samsung SDI and SKI are actively returning to the China market, intending to share a piece of the action. In the field of new energy vehicles, in addition to Tesla, the new car-making forces and new energy vehicle brands under the traditional car companies are bound to disperse market share.

The high-profile launch of blade battery and the establishment of Foday Department played the prelude to the independent listing of BYD power battery, and also revealed the dilemma of the former overlord. Under the fierce competition, BYD had to compromise, speed up the pace of opening up and find stronger "ammunition" for the next round of fighting.

* The title picture and other pictures in this article are from photo Network, based on VRF protocol.