Prospect of Summer Tourism Market in 2022 —— Demand Restoration Supported by Multiple Benefits

The tourism industry is about to usher in the third summer vacation affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, which will be a summer vacation full of challenges and opportunities. The external environment of the summer tourism market in 2022 is unprecedentedly complex. On the one hand, it is the possible rebound risk of local epidemic and the uncertainty of consumer confidence recovery; On the other hand, it is supported by unprecedented consumption stimulus and industrial stimulus policies. At present, the power of positive factors is dominant, and the domestic tourism market is expected to start a process of demand repair this summer.

First, focus on issuing multiple favorable policies to fully support the summer tourism market in 2022.

Since May, under the guidance of the general requirements of "preventing epidemic situation, stabilizing economy and ensuring development", various measures to stabilize growth and promote consumption have been implemented one after another, and the epidemic prevention and control policies have been further optimized, providing policy support for the recovery of tourism.

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Secondly, under the overall arrangement of 33 measures to stabilize the economy in the State Council, various localities have introduced policies to promote consumption covering the field of cultural tourism consumption, which are unprecedented in both strength and coverage. On the one hand, the consumption promotion policy will directly stimulate consumption, on the other hand, it can set off a round of "consumption boom" at the social level and reactivate the consumption enthusiasm suppressed by the epidemic.

Finally, the epidemic prevention and control policy is more accurate. Repeated epidemic is the biggest factor affecting the recovery of the tourism market, and more and more scientific and accurate prevention and control policies are of great significance to the recovery of the market. According to the characteristics of Omicron variants in COVID-19, the normalization arrangement of nucleic acid detection was introduced into the overall epidemic prevention and control policy mechanism, and the balance between epidemic prevention and control and economic stability was initially found under the new situation. The biggest adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy in the tourism industry is to reduce the implementation scope of the inter-provincial travel fuse mechanism from the provincial level to the district and county level, so as to avoid the situation that multiple provinces and cities fuse at the same time in the summer of 20021,which will be more direct support for this summer's tourism.

Second, the industrial chain has stabilized and demand has recovered. Summer tourism in 2022 is expected to return to the track of recovery.

With the support of various policies to rescue the city and promote consumption, the stability of the summer tourism industry chain will be enhanced in 2022, and the repair of the demand side will also be supported in all directions, and the market will return to the recovery track.

Due to the local epidemic rebound, the summer tourism market in 20021failed to continue the recovery momentum in the summer of 2020. Taking the passenger flow data of railway and civil aviation as the observation index, the total number of railway and civil aviation passengers sent in the summer vacation (July and August) in 2020 was 54 1.275 million, which was about 68% of the same period in 20 19, while the total number of passengers sent in the summer vacation in 20021year was 5,340.84 million.

Based on the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies and the support of various favorable policies, compared with the same period in 20021,it is predicted that the domestic tourism market will return to the recovery track in summer 2022, and the overall tourist volume is expected to return to more than 70% in the same period in 20 19. The recovery ratio of the big travel market supported by rigid demand such as traveling and visiting relatives will be slightly higher than that of the tourist holiday market (passenger flow dimension).

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Combined with favorable policies and consumers' response (the summer travel booking of Tongcheng Tourism Platform as of early June), I personally think that the long-distance travel and travel demand in summer 2022 will usher in accelerated repair, while the short-term and medium-term demand will still constitute the basic disk of the whole summer market and become the main force of the whole summer passenger flow.

First of all, after the optimization and adjustment of the inter-provincial tour fuse mechanism, the confidence of long-distance travel in summer will be steadily restored, and the long-distance team tour of travel agencies is expected to show a recovery growth, which will stimulate transportation, accommodation, destination retail, catering and other related consumption. The accelerated repair of long-distance travel demand will be one of the biggest attractions in the summer of 2022.

Secondly, under the normalization mechanism of nucleic acid detection, the repair of parent-child travel demand under 12 years old has been supported to some extent. Considering the restrictions on students' cross-provincial travel that may be introduced by local education departments, I personally think that the demand for parent-child travel will be the main force in the short to medium term, especially in the surrounding areas, which is expected to usher in retaliatory travel. The recovery of the demand for parent-child travel constitutes the "engine" for the stable recovery of the whole summer tourism market, which will drive the demand for family travel and play a powerful role in the recovery of the overall passenger flow.

Finally, more new consumption hotspots will appear. Since the outbreak, various new consumption hotspots have appeared in the domestic tourism market, from script killing to e-sports hotels to the recent camping craze, showing the great potential of consumption diversification. It is expected that new consumption hotspots will still occupy an important position in this summer's tourism market. Colorful night tours, weekend vacations, country tours, summer vacations, etc. Will add a lot of bright colors to the whole summer market.

(Cheng Gongchao, Principal Investigator of Tongcheng Research Institute)