When will global tourism recover?

With the gradual improvement of the world economy and people's life, tourism has become an important leisure way in many people's lives, and has spawned many industrial chains. Many countries rely on tourism for development. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, the global tourism industry has ushered in a cold winter, and many people are asking when the tourism industry can really recover.

When will global tourism resume?

TourismEconomics, a subsidiary of Oxford Economic Research Institute, said in a latest research report that as long as the epidemic can be effectively controlled in the first half of this year, tourism will gradually recover in July this year. 202 1 can be fully recovered by 2022.

In addition, because people are forced to stay at home, there may be retaliatory growth in tourism in the future. According to the data released by Csites.co.uk, the search volume of its website increased by 18% in February compared with the same period of last year, and the growth rate in the first week of March was close to 30%.

Winter of tourism

With the increasingly serious epidemic situation in various countries, more and more countries restrict entry and exit, and tourism has become the most affected industry.

Especially in some countries that originally focused on tourism, the economic situation is even more worrying. For example, in some Southeast Asian countries such as Laos and Thailand, the proportion of tourism in the total economic output exceeds 12%. But now, Bangkok's tourist attractions, food markets and temples are empty. Not long ago, the Vietnamese government even warned that as of April, the epidemic would cause losses of $5.9 billion to $7.7 billion to the country's tourism industry.

According to estimates by the Global Business Travel Association, if countries continue to restrict travel, the travel expenses of global tourists and companies may be reduced by more than 37%, resulting in a monthly loss of $46.6 billion and an annual loss of nearly $560 billion.

Influence of epidemic situation on tourism

ZurabPololikashvili, Secretary-General of the United Nations World Tourism Organization, pointed out that the decrease in the number of tourists will cause economic losses to the entire tourism industry, and pointed out: "Small and medium-sized enterprises account for about 80% of the tourism industry, especially millions of people all over the world, including vulnerable groups, rely on tourism for their livelihood."

However, UNWTO also pointed out that this sector has shown "high flexibility" in the past and can "rebound strongly", so it will play a key role in the future economic recovery.

It also called for financial and political support for the recovery measures of tourism, and support for this sector should be integrated into the broader recovery plans and actions of the affected economies.

The aviation industry has been seriously affected.

Two weeks ago, the aviation index of new york Stock Exchange plummeted by 30%, more than twice that of Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the aviation industry became the hardest hit.

According to the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on March 4th, the monthly growth rate of global airlines was the lowest in June this year since 20 10. Compared with 5,438+10 in June 2008, the flight demand only increased by 2.4%.

In addition, COVID-19 will lead to a decline in global air travel demand this year, which is the first overall contraction since the last financial crisis. The International Air Transport Association predicts that global demand will shrink by 4.7% in 2008, which means that airline revenue will drop by $29.3 billion.

Some airlines even went bankrupt. For example, British low-cost airline Flybe declared bankruptcy on March 5, local time, stopped all trading business and grounded all flights.