Does Russia have the ability to make Türkiye regret it more than once?

Possible

Economically, the Russian government will freeze or cancel agreements and investment projects signed with Turkey, and suspend negotiations on a reciprocal investment agreement with Turkey. The immigration agency in Russia's southern region of Krasnodar said 39 Turkish businessmen were detained on Wednesday because they entered Russia on tourist visas but attended an agricultural trade fair.

Russia will stop tourism cooperation with Türkiye. Oleg Safonov, director of the Russian Federal Tourism Administration, said that Russia will stop tourism cooperation with Turkey. Tourism companies are not allowed to organize tourists to go to Turkey. If they violate the regulations, they will be punished. Türkiye earns about $10 billion a year from Russians traveling to Türkiye. Safonov said: "Obviously, Turkey will definitely not get this income anymore."

According to the BBC, about 100 Turkish construction companies have started operations in Russia. Since the late 1980s, , Turkish companies completed 800 construction projects in Russia. In addition, Turkish investors have invested extensively in the Russian market, involving many fields and brands such as clothing, shoes, and food.

According to Reuters, Russian Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that Russia may restrict flights to and from Turkey and suspend preparations for the establishment of a free trade zone. and restrictions on large projects, including the TurkStream gas pipeline and the $20 billion nuclear power plant Russia is building in Turkey.

On the 4th day after the fighter plane was shot down, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree imposing sanctions on Turkey on the 28th. The package of sanctions includes restrictions on the import of some Turkish goods, a ban on flights between the two countries, and a ban on Russian travel agencies from handling travel procedures to Turkey.

In addition, the activities of Turkish companies in Russia will be strictly supervised. Since January 1, 2016, Turkish citizens are temporarily not allowed to enter Russia, except for diplomats and family members and people with temporary residence permits.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that there are currently about 90,000 Turkish citizens working in Russia. If family members are included, the number will reach 200,000.

The presidential decree that takes effect immediately is called "Order on ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation, protecting Russian citizens from crime and other illegal acts, and adopting special economic measures against Turkey."

In the context of the economic downturn of both countries, this sanction is undoubtedly adding insult to injury. Russia is Turkey's second largest trading partner, and Turkey is Russia's third largest trading partner. The total trade volume between the two countries in 2014 reached US$31.1 billion, of which Turkey's total exports to Russia were US$5.9 billion, while total imports were US$25.2 billion.

About 3.3 million Russians traveled to Turkey from January to September this year, accounting for 26% of Turkey’s total overseas tourists. Tourism is one of Türkiye's most important industries. According to data from the World Travel and Tourism Council, the tourism industry directly or indirectly created USD 96 billion in GDP for Turkey in 2014 and provided 2.1 million jobs.

Data released by the Russian Ministry of Economy on the 27th showed that GDP shrank by 3.7% in the first ten months of this year. Russia's public financial situation is also deteriorating rapidly. Standard & Poor's said that Russia's fiscal deficit will account for 4.4% of GDP this year. Former Deputy Minister of Economy Ivan Starikov recently stated that Russia’s actual inflation rate is close to 30%. "We will soon return to the era when families spend 50% of their income on food. Russians have become poor again."

Although Turkey's economic situation is better, it is not optimistic. . According to data released by Turkish statistics, Turkey's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.9% in 2014, which was higher than previous market expectations, but there was still a significant gap compared with the government's economic growth target. Yuan Quan, associate doctor of international relations at the People's Friendship University of Russia, told Observer.com that such a growth rate is not optimistic for Turkey. The sluggish economy has caused instability in Turkey. Russia's poor economic situation mainly comes from sanctions. If Turkey's economy has turned red in the absence of external negative factors, it will be even more vulnerable in the face of an economic war.