The number of foreigners coming to China plummeted by 98.6% and the export dropped by 14%, which were the three major pressures.

The number of foreigners in China has plummeted, and the entire industrial chain of inbound tourism has disintegrated. The urgent task is to revitalize inbound tourism and promote consumption.

The recent data sets are not ideal. First of all, the number of inbound tourists from domestic travel agencies has dropped sharply. In the first quarter of 2023, the number of inbound tourists from domestic travel agencies was only 52,000, down 98.6% year-on-year, and 78% of overseas tourists came from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Most of the remaining tourists come from Southeast Asia, while European and American tourists seldom go to China.

The whole industrial chain of inbound tourism has collapsed, so it is urgent to revitalize inbound tourism and promote consumption. Coincidentally, foreign investment, exports and other data are not very good.

1, the most serious injury to the entire tourism industry is inbound tourism, and the industrial chain is close to collapse. Even in Shanghai, we can witness the trend of foreigners leaving. Many resident foreigners have mostly returned to China, and these people used to be the main source of contribution to promoting inbound tourism.

Business contacts and tourism are very important for promoting non-governmental diplomacy, reducing negative prejudice and increasing influence on China. The reduction of inbound tourism may have a bad influence.

2. In terms of foreign investment, the net inflow of foreign direct investment in the first half of the year was only $4.9 billion, a record low, and the increase in the remittance of foreign profits led to a decrease in the balance of payments accounts of net investors.

Of course, this is related to the interest rate hike cycle of the US dollar, but internally, due to insufficient demand, foreign investors are not very willing to continue to expand their investment in China, and due to various factors, foreign investors do not expect the RMB to strengthen in the short term.

3. Both international industrial capital and domestic capital face a difficult problem, that is, the de-China of global supply chain. This situation even affects subsidiaries that have moved overseas. It is understood that the US Customs has also strengthened the traceability of the raw material supply chain, and so has Europe. Therefore, not only foreign capital, but also some domestic upstream and downstream enterprises are considering the overall layout of Southeast Asia, not just middlemen.

4. In the first five months of this year, the investment amount and investment amount of US dollar funds both declined, and the era of profiteering in China has passed. In the past two years, BlackRock's performance in China has been seriously lower than expected, and all its partial stock funds have suffered losses (as of 2023.5.3 1), with a loss rate of only over 30%. With the continuous downturn in product performance, BlackRock Fund's product collection has also suffered a cliff-like cooling.

This year, BlackRock's industry optimization only raised less than 440 million yuan, compared with its first product released in China in September, 200212002-the explosive BlackRock China New Vision of 6.68 billion yuan, which is really a big gap. In the first half of the year, private equity funds investing in China only raised $654.38+04 billion, a drop of 89%, while the global decline was only 654.38+05%.

This also reflects that the whole IPO, including Hong Kong stocks, is becoming more and more difficult, and a large number of private equity funds cannot quit. In the first half of this year, the IPO financing scale of Hong Kong stocks was only HK$ 654.38+0.78 billion, which was not as good as that of Indonesia.

5. In dollar terms, China's import and export in July this year was US$ 482.92 billion, down by 13.6%. Among them, the export was $2,865,438+$76 million, down 14.5%. Imports were $2,065,438 +0,10.6 billion, down12.4%; The trade surplus was $80.6 billion, narrowing by 19.4%. China's exports to ASEAN increased by 4.7% year on year.

Compared with the same period of last year, the total trade volume between China and Europe and between China and the United States decreased by 0. 1% and 9.6% respectively, and the total trade volume between China and Japan decreased by 5.8% year-on-year. By product, China's automobile export in the first seven months was 383.73 billion yuan, up 1 18.5% year-on-year. However, the export volume of automatic data processing equipment, spare parts and mobile phones is not as good as that of the same period last year. This year, many foreign trade enterprises' orders are not as good as before the epidemic, and the pressure is very great. It will be good to settle down in the future.

After all, Europe and America are still in the interest rate competition and in the cycle of monetary tightening. Insufficient external demand leads to greater import and export pressure. South Korea is even worse, with exports falling for ten consecutive months and 16.5% in July.

Vietnam's exports have fallen continuously for the longest time since it hit 14, and Vietnam's exports fell 10.6% year-on-year in the first seven months. Since the second quarter of 2022, the total import volume of the United States has continued to decline, from $4.074 billion to $373/kloc-0.0 billion in the second quarter of 2023, a decrease of $343 billion, or almost 9%.

6. RMB exchange rate fluctuations have intensified. On August 9, 2023, the RMB was lowered by 23 basis points in a single day. The RMB depreciated for two consecutive trading days, with the cumulative depreciation exceeding 200 basis points. This year, the RMB fell below 7.2, not because the dollar was too strong, but because the RMB was too weak. So the main reason is not from the outside, but from the inside.

On August, 2023, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange held a working meeting for the second half of 2023. The meeting pointed out that we should support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, implement the "Finance 16", extend the implementation period of the loan support plan for Baojiao Building, keep the real estate financing stable and orderly, and increase financial support for housing leasing, village-in-city renovation and affordable housing construction.

Due to the accurate implementation of differentiated housing credit policy in our city, we will continue to guide the downward trend of individual housing loan interest rate and down payment ratio to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents. Guide commercial banks to adjust the existing individual housing loan interest rate in an orderly manner according to law.

From the contents of the meeting, we can easily see that lowering the interest rate of individual housing loans is one of the combination punches of the central government to boost the economy, not a case study. After all, I still lack confidence.

Conclusion: Banks are under great pressure, so we should pay attention to the policy direction and strength of attracting investment.