Some people say that the value of all the houses in Beijing can buy the whole United States? Is the house in Beijing so valuable?

Beijing housing market is always crazy when there is disagreement, and economic principles can do nothing in front of Beijing housing prices, vomiting blood and dying. The latest joke about Beijing is this:

A Beijinger, 30 years ago, in order to dream of going abroad, sold a quadrangle in Gulou Street and raised 300,000 yuan. He left his hometown to go to the United States for gold ... He had a meal, had a rainy night, delivered takeout in the middle of the night, learned a foreign language, was robbed seven times in the slums, and was beaten three times ... He is hardworking and thrifty, and now his temples are gray. After 30 years, he finally saved more than $654.38+0 million. Once in Beijing, I found that the quadrangle I sold in the past was now listed on the intermediary for 80 million yuan, and it suddenly collapsed. ...

I also heard that two indigenous people in Beijing are now married, which is equivalent to the merger of two listed companies. Beijing aborigines' houses are not only the level of two listed companies, but also may not have the scale of two Beijing aborigines when combined! Beijing's housing prices, especially in the second ring road, can buy a whole town in the United States!

Tiller, Oregon, USA is looking for a buyer for $3.85 million (about 26 million RMB). According to the domestic media, it is more than 20 million, but it is only a school district in Beijing. 100 square meter Beijing school district can actually buy a small town in the United States with 1 square kilometer.

Housing prices in Beijing are really unattainable, but compared with Tokyo, they are dwarfed. Twenty years ago, the house price in Tokyo could buy the whole United States!

How did the Japanese real estate bubble come into being and burst?

Is Japanese real estate today the future of China real estate?

"Bubbles are actually difficult to define, just like beauty. It is difficult for you to define what a beautiful woman is, but when a girl stands in front of you, you will know whether she is a beautiful woman. " -Financial expert kindleberger.

Japan's real estate bubble began in the 1980s.

According to the data released by the Japanese National Land Agency, the value index of commercial land in Tokyo is1980; 1985, rising to120; 1988, soaring to 334. 1988, the price ratio of residential land in Tokyo 1985 increased by 2. 1 times.

1989, the land market value of Japan, whose land area is only 4% of that of the United States, is equivalent to four times the total land price of the whole United States.

It is true that the land price of Ginza Street in Tokyo is as high as 654.38+0 million USD/m2, and the house price in Tokyo can buy the whole United States.

The real estate bubble has created countless rich people. 1989, six of the top ten richest people in the world are Japanese, all of whom started from real estate.

Ordinary "owners" have also become "beneficiaries". In Tokyo, an old man worked in the school reception room for more than 40 years, and his income has been meager. After retirement, I intend to go back to the countryside to spend my old age. I sold a small house in Tokyo, but I didn't expect to sell it for 8 million dollars. The old man instantly became a multi-millionaire and returned to China in a golden suit.

Internationally, the name of Japan's "local tyrant" began to spread far and wide.

1987, the Japanese bought Van Gogh's masterpiece Sunflower for 5.7 billion yen.

1989, the Japanese spent 469.2 billion yen to buy Columbia Film Company, a symbol of American culture.

1989, the Japanese spent 220 billion yen to buy the Rockefeller Center, the national symbol of the United States.

At that time, many Japanese literary and artistic works also reflected the shadow of fanaticism in the real estate bubble era.

In Doraemon 1989 theatrical version of The Birth of Japan, primary school students such as Xiao Xiong traveled to Japan millions of years ago by time machine, and the first thing they did was to divide the land.

The birth of Japan

Along with real estate, the Japanese stock market also began to soar.

From 1983 to 1989, Japan's share price tripled. 1On May 2, 989, the total share price of listed companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange reached 500 trillion yen, accounting for 45% of the global share, making it the largest stock exchange market in the world.

Real estate has become a pillar industry worthy of the name. From 65438 to 0987, real estate contributed nearly 30% to Japan's GDP growth.

A lot of money flowed into real estate. From 65438 to 0989, the proportion of Japanese banks' real estate loans rose to 74%, which directly hit other productive industries.

Japan's seemingly prosperous economy has become a veritable castle in the air, and the crisis is imminent.

"An era ends when basic illusions are shattered." Arthur Miller, playwright.

1990 65438+ 10 12, the Japanese stock market ushered in the darkest day in history. On the same day, the Nikkei index plummeted and the stock market plummeted by 70%.

At the same time, the real estate market began to collapse, and the huge real estate bubble burst from Tokyo and spread rapidly throughout Japan. 199 1 year, house prices in big cities such as Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto dropped by 20%. By 1993, Japan's real estate bubble had completely collapsed.

Trend map of land price in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya.

The Japanese paid a painful price for the bubble. According to a survey conducted by Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in 1990, * * * 6,468 enterprises (with debts exceeding 10 billion yen) went bankrupt, with total liabilities reaching 2 trillion yen; 199 1 year reached 8 trillion yen.

1994, the Japanese government announced that 199 1 year Japan's total national assets decreased by 448 trillion yen, equivalent to Japan's GDP that year.

Japanese stock market crash

Japan's GDP growth rate dropped sharply from 7. 1% in 1988 to 0. 17% in 1993, with a negative growth of 1998, and Japan entered the so-called "lost 20 years".

Historically, people in tulip bubble, the Netherlands or south sea bubble, England did not know or even refused to believe that this was a bubble.

South sea bubble,19th century copperplate prints.

Japan's real estate bubble has never been blown up by a certain enterprise or organization, but more like a national carnival, in which the government, banks and citizens are intoxicated.

▼ Japanese government

Fearing that the Plaza Accord would lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and deflation in China, the Japanese government adopted a very loose monetary and fiscal policy, which led to a flood of market liquidity and a large amount of funds flowing into the real estate and stock markets, leading to a sharp rise in house prices and stock prices.

The signing site of the Plaza Agreement

Bank of Japan

In order to expand its business share, the Bank of Japan has made every effort to issue loans to real estate, and even lured people with deposit intentions to invest in land.

Japanese nationals

Japanese nationals first tasted the sweetness of soaring housing prices, continued to use their houses as collateral for loans, bought houses elsewhere, and then used new houses as collateral. ...

In the real estate bubble, everyone wins: the government increases taxes, investors will get rich book returns, bank investments are high-quality assets, homeowners are complacent about the appreciation of self-sustaining real estate, and even people without houses can share the fruits of "thriving" economic development.

Japan's real estate bubble is like taking drugs. The bigger the blow, the deeper the trap, and the more people are trapped. This is a game of delivering packages. Sadly, no one believes that he received the last stick.

"The unchanging nature of human beings is greed, which is the power to promote social progress and destroy human beings." -Keynes, economist

Just as China people today believe that Beijing's housing prices will not fall, Japanese people in those days did not believe that Tokyo's housing prices would fall.

The real estate situation in China is indeed similar to that in Japan:

Does this mean that today's Japanese real estate is tomorrow's China real estate?

The difference between them is that at that time, Japan had completed the urbanization construction, and the urbanization rate was above 90%. Under the original industrial structure, Japan's economic growth has become saturated.

At present, China's urbanization rate is only 56. 1%, and there is still much room for growth.

Does this mean that China housing prices still have room to rise?

This article is not about whether the real estate in China will collapse or continue to rise, but about the soaring housing prices, the destruction of economic ethics, the distortion of resource allocation, the tearing of social order and the destruction of happiness.

When housing prices continue to skyrocket, you can get something for nothing and squander your life by speculating in real estate or inheriting ancestral houses. Everyone will become greedy, and enterprises are unwilling to engage in R&D and production, but choose to stay in the gambling of speculating the property market and creating bubbles. The gains from sweat and hard work are far less than those from money games, which will inevitably do great harm to traditional economic ethics.

A lot of capital, manpower and other resources will flow to the real estate sector. Banks are keen on lending to real estate, citizens are keen on investing in the property market, and even enterprises have given up traditional manufacturing and set foot in real estate. The proportion of real estate in the national GDP is increasing, the distribution of resources is seriously distorted, and the economy suffers from real estate dependence.

"Old people" have become "old people", love is vulnerable, marriage is like a child's play, and traditional values and social order have been torn to pieces by high housing prices.

Shanghai residents line up for divorce to buy a house.

The whole society is caught in the infinite anxiety of living without a fixed place, living without a fixed place and sighing at the house. The huge pressure of housing prices makes parents sigh for their children's houses, and also makes young people's dreams crash into pieces. How can we talk about happiness?

Underground Group Renting in Beijing

As a late-developing country, Japan is the most important mirror of China.

While Japan continues to be lost in the "lost 20 years", China's real estate market is "rising".