Digital service trade has entered the fast lane, and "red man" has become a new invisible force.

In the first week of September, 2020, with the announcement of the establishment of "National Comprehensive Demonstration Zone for Expanding and Opening-up of Service Industry", (digital) service trade has become a new economic hotspot, and even the momentum of driving China's economic spectrum shift has begun to appear.

It is understood that in 20 19, the scale of China's digital economy reached 35.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 36.2% of GDP, which became an important support for high-quality economic development. While the digital service trade has entered the fast lane, the "red man" has become an invisible force that cannot be ignored, and the relevant market scale has been in the order of 100 billion.

What is service trade?

If you usually pay attention to financial news, you will know that China provides hundreds of millions of overseas trips, millions of overseas study tours, cross-border business activities, overseas medical plastic surgery needs, transnational exhibitions, and even domestic service imports and medical care and other labor exports to the global service market every year. ......

Different from trade in goods, the former deals with physical products, while trade in services deals with intangible services, including finance, education, entertainment, culture and sports, commerce, medical care and other fields.

In terms of "gold content", trade in services is generally higher than trade in goods. Intellectual property transactions belong to service trade, financial services belong to service trade, and "Red Man" commercial services also belong to service trade.

What is digital service trade?

Facebook, Google, Microsoft, or Disney and Netflix are all internet companies. What kind of products are they selling? No. These new economic companies sell high value-added services or solutions in many parts of the world.

TikTok is called Tik Tok in China and Tiktok abroad. It is driven by artificial intelligence and represents first-class technology. It does not export any physical products, but the efficiency of culture, entertainment or information flow, thus realizing internationalization. This is a typical digital service trade case that is happening.

A game made by a company in Shanghai is very popular in the Philippines, suitable for all ages. This game is the choice of local e-sports games in ASEAN.

Red e-commerce has also become a new bright spot in digital service trade in recent years. There is even a general view in the industry: a traditional enterprise needs at least 1 000 employees to make annual sales of 1 100 million yuan; An Internet company needs at least1000 employees to make sales of1000 billion yuan a year; A online celebrity IP with a head position only needs 10 customer service, and can make 10 billion sales in one year.

This is the advantage of digital service trade, which is asset-oriented, data-driven and has unlimited growth space. Uber, the world's largest taxi company, has no taxi, Facebook, the world's hottest media owner, has no content producer, and Airbnb, the world's largest accommodation service provider, has no real estate. SH), the world's leading red man new economic company, does not have a red man, and Alibaba, the world's most valuable retailer, does not have any goods in stock.

At present, China's service trade has covered a wide range, but its proportion in the national economy is still obviously low. At present, the proportion of China's service trade in the national economy is only 5%, far lower than that of the United States 17%, that of Germany 18% and even lower than that of India 12%. This is not a bad thing. It is the intrinsic kinetic energy of China's economic transformation and upgrading, and it is also an important weight to promote the "double cycle".

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic service industry accounted for 5 1.6% of GDP in 20 16 years, and this proportion has increased year by year in the last five years. Under the consistent expectation, the proportion of the tertiary industry, which is mainly service industry, in China's economy will exceed 60% or even 70% in a short time. In this rising process, there may be a big increase.

Where is the future growth space of China's service industry? One of the correct directions is the reduction of variance.

Variance is a statistical concept, which is used to measure the difference between the average value of a sample and the whole sample. Corresponding to the service industry, the smaller the variance, the more stable and standardized the service level.

What are the advantages of reducing variance?

Similarly, in catering, McDonald's and KFC are standardized in food, ingredients, grocery stores and brand labels. There is almost no difference (that is, the variance is very small) between the shops in London, Hubei, Wuhan, Bangkok, Thailand and Kobe, Japan.

Due to the high certainty of service quality, American catering enterprises can export a large number of American catering service models to the world and constantly copy themselves. With tens of thousands of stores opened around the world, Chinese food will not work. It depends entirely on the personal abilities of bosses and chefs. The service quality is unstable and irregular, and the service model is difficult to replicate itself and export in a large scale.

Why did Starbucks build its own central kitchen for chain coffee shops and bakery chains at 85 degrees Celsius? Because this can keep the tastes of coffee, dessert and bread highly consistent, and the variance of user experience is the smallest.

Starbucks' opening strategy is very radical, and usually a large number of stores actively cover an area. Starbucks can do this because it has a strong ability to manage variance.

Domestic mainstream service industry has realized that the essence of service industry is to manage "variance" and output deterministic user experience.

However, the "variance" of domestic service industry is still large.

For example, in real estate agency services, the ratio of an online business opportunity to an offline transaction is sometimes 65,438+0/2,500, and sometimes 65,438+0/2,000. If a broker makes three transactions a year, it means that he needs to deal with 6000-7500 business opportunities, and one business opportunity takes half an hour, so it is difficult to have a rest all year round.

For example, many domestic domestic housekeeping services are not branded and chained, and they are very scattered. There are more than 10,000 domestic companies in Beijing alone, and most service industries are not connected to the Internet. Branding, chaining and internetization mean narrowing the differences in service quality.

This paper focuses on the live broadcast with goods under the new economy of Red Man. Even many head celebrities get unstable results, sometimes amazing results, sometimes "unspeakable" results, and it is difficult to stably convert fan traffic into product sales results.

The reason behind this situation is that in the past 30 years, China has rapidly leapt from an agricultural society to an industrial society, entered an information society and a network society, and the infrastructure conditions still need to be improved. Therefore, some domestic head companies are stepping up infrastructure construction, such as Alibaba's cloud computing facilities and the best red data facilities in the world.

According to the research data of relevant government agencies, every time the proportion of service industry in GDP increases by 1 percentage point, the labor productivity will be lost by 0.3 percentage point. The labor productivity of service industry is much lower than that of industry, which is definitely a problem in the long run.

What is "labor productivity"? In short, it is the economic value created per unit time.

For example, if you open a shop online, your products are very good, but because users can't see you, the daily turnover is not much. This is labor productivity.

If you want to improve efficiency, you don't have to use particularly cool artificial intelligence systems and blockchain technology. With these technologies, it is useless, because it is not to help you find users at all.

Nowadays, if you want to start a business, you'd better be a celebrity first. Because every good advertising space and every traffic depression are occupied by big companies, you have no entry point and no chance of winning. Only by becoming a celebrity, binding with users' interests and concerns and becoming your private social assets can you improve economic efficiency.

At present, Red Man's new economy (including Red Man's advertising marketing, Red Man's live broadcast with goods and Red Man's new consumer brand) has become a new variable to stimulate the domestic demand consumer market. Red Star Business can really release the marketing efficiency of consumer brands, and this market has a scale of several hundred billion yuan. But only a few people really create and enjoy this dividend.

Why can large-scale digitalization improve the labor productivity of service industry? Because of certainty, that is, the variance is reduced.

For example, Tianxiaxiu has become a major traffic center of the red man's new economy, but it is still expanding upstream, including content innovation in the 5G era, future-oriented red man professional system, and exquisite Z-era living community. Focus on providing finer-grained and finer communication tools, accelerate the integration and self-circulation of upstream and downstream, and then drive the rotation of the new economic ecology of the whole red man.

The value logic of traditional service industry is that everything comes from exchange. Enterprises produce service products and then try to deliver them to customers. The logic of digital service trade is to bring users into the value system. The value is not the product itself, but created by users and businesses in the process of using products and services. Consumer brands, red anchors, and consumer users all exist in a business ecosystem. They accurately convey their needs in communication and interaction, and even through big data analysis, this ecosystem can better understand their potential needs than consumers themselves.

For example, Tianxiaxiu, as the big data service center of this ecosystem, makes the commercial services (advertisements, commodities, online brands) of Redskins more certain and less variance through continuous innovation and iteration. The core value of data analysis in Red Man University lies in precision commerce, and the greatest significance of precision commerce lies in certainty, which is also the real reason behind the vigorous development of digital service trade.

Today, the development of China's service trade has ushered in two very rare driving factors:

First of all, the structure of the domestic consumer market is particularly conducive to the development of service trade.

In 20 19, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China was more than 4 1 trillion yuan, which was about 4% lower than that in the United States. We can maintain (or approach) the double-digit growth rate for a long time, which greatly exceeds that of the United States and will catch up in a few years. Perhaps around 202 1, China will become the largest total retail market of single consumer goods in the world.

In the past, most people in China didn't consume services, but now young people born in 1980s and 1990s begin to consume services on a large scale. For every 100 yuan spent in cities, 70 yuan or more is spent by young people, which is a very good change.

Nowadays, young people are all "white horse users". As long as they like it, they won't think things are expensive, eat, drink and have fun, and have their own rhythm. Such users will soon become the "main force of consumption upgrading", and the economic cycle will not interfere with the consumption power of this group at all. Therefore, they have become the biggest driving force for business innovation.

That's why after TikTok became popular among young people in China, Tiktok quickly swept the world and became a classic case of digital service export, because young people know young people best, and this "best understanding" has no national boundaries.

The second is "home economy" and digital two-wheel drive service trade innovation.

According to UNCTAD Digital Economy Report 20 19, among the 70 largest digital platforms in the world, China accounts for 22%, second only to the United States.

During the global epidemic, telemedicine, online education, cross-border electronic commerce, * * shared platform, collaborative office and other services were widely used, which played an important role in promoting economic stability of various countries and promoting international cooperation to fight the epidemic. On the other hand, in China, the economy has recovered steadily, the new "domestic economy" has continued to exert its strength, the consumption pattern has changed rapidly, and the upgrading momentum of domestic service has not diminished. ...

Under the background of "home economy" and digital two-wheel drive, Red Man New Economy has become a highlight of service trade innovation. The form of live e-commerce not only allows manufacturers to establish direct contact with consumers, but also allows consumers to overcome the obstacles of buying some products online, such as high-end jewelry such as pearls and jadeite, and live seafood such as Argentine lobster. In the past, consumers may not like to buy these categories online because they are more expensive, but now this resistance is eliminated through live broadcast.

In addition, the continuous iterative upgrade of live e-commerce and the new infrastructure of Red Man has greatly improved the stability and reliability of service output and broadened the categories of consumer goods that can be sold online.

The consumer market is also innovating and evolving around the ecological evolution of the red man's new economy: the first upgrade is to reshape the trading hall, that is, online and offline integration to meet the dual-line consumption needs of consumers; The second upgrade is to reshape the radiation belt, that is, to provide services around a business circle and its covered consumers; The third upgrade is to reshape the (social) consumer circle, that is, the service and socialization of consumers are superimposed, and the "red man" is used as the traffic entrance to form a deep interaction between consumers and brands.

The upgrading of the new consumer service model is inseparable from the support of digital and intelligent means. Consumer brands will be systematized and platformized around the capabilities of "Red Man" and consumer brands, and empower consumer brands, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, so that their digital service capabilities can quickly exceed the baseline, reduce the variance of service experience, bring about significant sales promotion, and reshape business structure and business ecology.

In the past 15 years, China's service imports from the world totaled 4.5 trillion US dollars, which boosted the global service imports by 10.4 percentage point. In fact, this is largely due to insufficient domestic supply. The biggest effort of domestic service industry is to control the change of service. The smaller the variance, the more predictable the service quality, the stronger the reproducibility of the service model, and the rapid promotion of branding and chain.

Digital service trade is the most important part of China's economic transformation and upgrading, which will promote the "double cycle" new development pattern of domestic and foreign markets, which will inevitably bring about the shift of China's economic spectrum. Among them, investment opportunities and development opportunities have immeasurable potential and prospects.