What impact does the epidemic have on travel agencies?

With the development of economy and the improvement of living standards, people's demand for spiritual culture is rising. Tourism has become an indispensable part of people's lives, and it is also one of the important manifestations of residents' consumption upgrading.

In 2009, the State Council's "Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Tourism" proposed to "cultivate tourism into a strategic pillar industry of the national economy and a modern service industry that the people are more satisfied with"; The 13th Five-Year Tourism Development Plan has been included in the national key special plan.

In 20 18, the total tourism revenue of China reached 5.97 trillion yuan, and the total number of tourists reached 5.54 billion. Moreover, in most years since the new century, the year-on-year growth rate of tourism revenue is higher than that of GDP; It has contributed nearly 80 million jobs and is of great significance to the development of the national economy.

The sensitivity of tourism is mainly reflected in two aspects:

(1) is vulnerable to emergencies.

Tourism is greatly influenced by the external environment, which is determined by its own characteristics. In the process of development, it is difficult to completely avoid the interference of some uncertain factors and unexpected events, such as economic factors such as economic crisis and financial turmoil, natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis, epidemic diseases such as SARS, avian flu and swine flu, and political factors such as regional conflicts, wars, turmoil and terrorist activities, which will all lead to a decline in tourism demand and bring negative impacts on tourism development.

(2) It is susceptible to seasonal factors.

China has a vast territory, and the climate difference between north and south is huge. With the change of seasons in a year, the tourism situation of most domestic tourist destinations will show regular changes, so tourism will form a relatively fixed peak season and low season every year.

Judging from the epidemic situation of new crown pneumonia:

Because isolation is the most effective means of prevention and control, and almost all segments of the tourism industry involve crowd gathering and socializing, the business expectation in 2020 has been completely changed in the current situation that scenic spots are closed, hotels are idling, restaurants are closed and flights are sharply reduced.

Because of this, it is necessary for us to discuss the true face of tourism under the epidemic and how it will evolve in the future.

COVID-19 epidemic: what will it bring to tourism?

The short-term impact has already appeared.

If there is no epidemic, 2020 will be a very lively Spring Festival Golden Week-according to the previous predictions of major market research institutions, the number of travelers in Spring Festival travel rush will exceed 450 million in 2020, an increase of 8% compared with Spring Festival travel rush in 20 19, and it will also create a consumption scale of about 555 billion yuan.

Due to the sudden attack of the epidemic, the above predicted value lost its value instantly, which can be fully proved by the data of people flow and travel times:

(1) Traffic data: According to the data of the Ministry of Communications, as of February 18, in 2020, Spring Festival travel rush rushed to transport the railway to send 2 1 10,000 passengers, a year-on-year decrease of 47.3%; Passengers sent by highway 12 1 100 million person-times, down 50.8% year-on-year; The waterway sent passengers16.89 million person-times, down 58.6% year-on-year; Civil aviation sent 38.39 million passengers, a year-on-year decrease of 47.5%.

(2) Number of people traveling in Golden Week: During the Spring Festival "Golden Week" (65438+124 October to 65438+130 October) from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year in 2020, the number of people traveling nationwide was only 65438+52 million; In contrast, during the Golden Week of the Spring Festival in 20 19 (February 4 ~ February 10), the number of people traveling in China reached 42 10/00000, which was even worse than "waist cutting".

The downturn in this industry may continue in the short term.

1, supply side: the whole industry is affected.

At present, almost all employees of travel agencies are in a state of suspension, and their income and cash flow are facing challenges;

Most scenic spots are closed, or some parking lots are closed, reducing the limited flow of people to cope with the epidemic and the income is limited; Many hotels have suspended business, and the occupancy rate has dropped sharply in the short term, which has affected their operating income;

Overseas epidemic is also spreading, international flights are cancelled or grounded, and inbound and outbound tourism is restricted.

2. Demand side: Chinese people's willingness to travel has dropped significantly.

Before the announcement of the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, many people had voluntarily cancelled their travel plans during and after the Spring Festival, so as to avoid crowds gathering and going out to the greatest extent.

Historically, the lowest performance of tourism will appear in two quarters after the outbreak of the epidemic, which shows that the epidemic has had a long-standing impact on tourism performance. As for when people's willingness to travel will be restored, everything depends on the speed of epidemic control, as well as the implementation of overseas control measures and tourism revitalization plans.

The retaliatory rebound after the epidemic is worth looking forward to.

Compared with the SARS period, COVID-19 virus is more contagious, spreads more widely, and its prevention and control efforts are stricter than those during the SARS period. All provinces and cities have implemented regional blockade, traffic control and suspension of classes in scenic spots to varying degrees. Most people actively or passively isolate themselves from their homes, which has a serious impact on tourism.

However, long-term isolation and working at home have made many people "depressed" for too long. Therefore, we expect that after the epidemic is completely over, with the recovery of tourism confidence, people will plan a "walk-and-go trip" with a stronger will, and the retaliatory rebound of the industry is worth looking forward to.

According to the experience of SARS, it is difficult for the tourism market to change significantly during the May 1 Golden Week. We expect that the impact on the scenic spot may last for more than half a year. Considering that after the outbreak, all walks of life will generally take measures to make up for the previous losses, and it is difficult for employees to travel on annual leave, so it may not be until the Eleventh Golden Week that China's tourism industry will improve, and the business of scenic spots and hotels will also improve;