Will tourism break out after the epidemic?

The epidemic during the Spring Festival in 2020 has brought the national tourism industry to a complete halt, and the global tourism industry has also been comprehensively hit. Then, after the outbreak of warm spring, will tourism usher in a wave of outbreaks?

At the end of June 5438 +2020 10, the national scenic spots were closed down one after another. At present, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, scenic spots around the country began to open one after another, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai as the representatives, Jiangxi, Hunan, Sichuan and other places followed suit, and other provinces and cities also introduced policies to promote the recovery of tourism.

A number of urban scenic spots and parks have been opened one after another.

On February 19, 2020, Hangzhou West Lake Scenic Area was the first to open and orderly, and many tourists wore masks to walk by the West Lake. In addition to the West Lake Scenic Area in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, other parks, squares and stadiums in Hangzhou have all been opened. Nanjing has 1 1 scenic spots and parks directly under the Municipal Bureau of Culture and Tourism, including Xuanwu Lake Scenic Spot, Yuhuatai Scenic Spot and Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum Scenic Spot.

All tourists wear masks to enter the park.

Longhu Mountain Scenic Area, a national 5A scenic spot in Jiangxi Province, was also gradually opened to the outside world on February 19. At present, the main scenic spot of Longhu Mountain has been officially opened, and scenic spots such as Tianmen Mountain, Dashangqing Palace and Tianshifu have been temporarily closed. In addition, Mianyang, Sichuan also proposed that 9: 00 am on February 19.

Previously, People's Park, Fule Mountain Park, nanshan park, Xishan Park and all street parks and squares were reopened.

It should be noted that tourists must purchase tickets and wear masks in the real-name registration system registration system, and they also need to go through necessary security checks when entering the scenic spot. In the control of the flow of people in scenic spots, the daily reception volume should not exceed 50% of the carrying capacity in principle, and it is recommended to enter the park at intervals.

Farmhouse homestays all over the country are actively preparing for business.

With the closure of scenic spots, farmhouses and homestays in many places are also closed. Now that the scenic spots are gradually opening up, some farmhouses on Xishan Island of Taihu Lake in Suzhou have once again started the comprehensive disinfection mode and are actively preparing to return to work. The owner of a farmhouse with Xishan 10 brand said that he was waiting for the government's notice and was ready to submit all the materials for review. At the beginning, only a few rooms are planned to be opened to ensure that there will be no crowd gathering. After the guests check in, they will arrange a special person to carry out daily disinfection inspection.

In addition, there is good news. The Culture and Tourism Bureau of Suzhou Taihu National Tourism Resort recently issued an official notice: after the epidemic, all scenic spots will be open to all guests who have stayed in hotels and homestays free of charge. The preferential policy will last until June 5438+February 3, 20201,and the specific information will be notified separately. This wave of welfare can be said to have contributed to the recovery of tourism in Taihu Lake area.

Finally, I would like to remind you that at this stage when the epidemic is coming to an end, we still can't relax. We should wear masks when going out and cooperate with all inspections. I believe that the day of going out to play is not far away.

With the development of the epidemic, how to save the economy and small and medium-sized enterprises hit hard by the epidemic has been put on the agenda. As one of the most seriously affected industries, the whole industry chain is under heavy pressure. On February 5, the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a notice: In order to further improve the prevention and control of epidemic situation in the cultural tourism system and support travel agencies to actively cope with the current operational difficulties, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism decided to temporarily refund 80% of the tourism service quality deposit to travel agencies.

On February 7, 2020,

The Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China jointly issued the Announcement on Tax Policies to Support the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia Infection in novel coronavirus, which clearly extended the maximum carry-over period of losses incurred by enterprises in four difficult industries in 2020 from five years to eight years. As soon as the news came out, the industry applauded and confidence increased greatly.

Since the outbreak of pneumonia in COVID-19, scenes of deja vu have brought tourists' memories back to 17 years ago. That year, affected by the SARS epidemic, China's three major markets of inbound tourism, outbound tourism and domestic tourism were severely impacted, and inbound tourism and domestic tourism even declined for the first time in ten years.

When will the "retaliatory" rebound of tourism come when the number of famous scenic spots has increased to 25?

"The opening hours have not yet arrived, and there has been a long queue at the entrance of the scenic spot." February 19 is the first time that Nanjing Xuanwu Lake Scenic Area has been opened to the public since the outbreak. Gao Xin (pseudonym) recalled to the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that many Nanjing citizens had lined up before the opening time of Xuanwu Lake Scenic Area that day.

With the positive changes of epidemic situation, domestic tourism shows signs of gradual recovery. According to the statistics of 265438+20th Century Business Herald, as of February 20th, 25 domestic famous scenic spots, such as Old Town of Lijiang, Yulong Snow Mountain, Lugu Lake, Hangzhou West Lake, Nanjing Confucius Temple, Xuanwu Lake, Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum and Suzhou Zhouzhuang, have resumed operation. However, considering the epidemic situation, the open areas of scenic spots are all open-air areas, and the flow of people is controlled. For example, Hangzhou West Lake implements real-time tourist volume control, and the daily reception volume does not exceed 50% of the carrying capacity in principle. Group tourists are arranged to enter the park at intervals, and all tourists are required to wear masks for sightseeing.

Affected by the epidemic, domestic tourism suffered heavy losses in the first quarter. According to china tourism academy's forecast, in the first quarter of 2020, the number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue will drop by 56% and 69% respectively; The number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue are expected to decrease by 932 million and 1. 1.8 trillion yuan respectively. However, Dai Bin, president of china tourism academy, also pointed out that the market fundamentals supporting the operation of the tourism economy have not changed, and it is very likely that domestic tourism consumption will bottom out.

Historical data also show that domestic tourism is brewing a "retaliatory" rebound after the epidemic.

In 2003, affected by the SARS epidemic, from April to June of that year, China's three major markets of inbound tourism, outbound tourism and domestic tourism were severely impacted. Among them, inbound tourism and domestic tourism even declined for the first time in 2003. After SARS, there was a blowout in the domestic tourism market.

Ctrip's big data shows that after SARS, the demand for civil aviation and hotel accommodation has recovered rapidly.

In terms of civil aviation, in the second quarter of 2003, the booking volume of Ctrip air tickets decreased by 33.39% year-on-year. In July, with the victory of SARS epidemic in the world, the volume of air ticket orders increased by 200% year-on-year and 82% quarter-on-quarter. At the same time, such retaliatory rebound has been significantly reflected in the golden tourism period after the SARS epidemic. During the "Eleventh" Golden Week in 2003, the air ticket order volume of Ctrip platform increased by 200% year-on-year; During the Spring Festival in 2004, air ticket orders increased by 20 1% year-on-year.

In terms of hotel accommodation, in the second quarter of 2003, the booking volume of Ctrip hotels decreased by 25.08% year-on-year. In June, the hotel accommodation industry began to recover. In July, the occupancy rate of Ctrip Hotel has returned to 70% in the same period last year. The relevant person in charge of Ctrip told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that "the accommodation industry is like a spring breeze. After being hit hard by SARS and MERS twice, there was a' rebound after the epidemic' and the long tail lasted until the next year. "

Signs of tourism rebound after the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 can also be seen from the existing demand information of the civil aviation industry.

Ctrip's recent survey of users shows that 85% of users will continue their travel plans this year, and the overall search volume of Ctrip's "May Day" holiday has been higher than last year.

Roland berger recently released a research report saying that with the gradual weakening of the epidemic, passenger travel demand will be delayed, and the national railway and air passenger volume is expected to rise again. After the SARS epidemic ended in July of the same year, the national railway and air passenger volume quickly resumed growth.

In fact, many listed companies are preparing for the rebound of the tourism market after the epidemic.

On the evening of February 20th, Jiuhua Tourism (603 199. SH) It is announced that it plans to invest 1 100 million yuan to participate in Anhui Zhongan Tourism Health Industry Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership), and seek, prepare and invest high-quality tourism resources with the help of professional institutions. Previously, the company had said that it was actively preparing for business recovery.

In early February, Caesar traveled (000796. SZ) announced that according to the company's own business characteristics and past experience, it is expected that the market demand will be fully released after the end of this epidemic. The company is simultaneously making product strategies and resource procurement plans after the end of the epidemic to make all preparations for business recovery.

Yunnan Tourism (002059. SZ) also made the same plan. The company said that its comprehensive tourism service and cultural tourism complex operation section will use the epidemic prevention and control period to accumulate strength for the key work of scenic spots, travel agencies, tourism transportation, hotels and other businesses in May Day, summer vacation and the second half of the year.