How is 8.33 in the formula of seasonal time intensity index of tourism demand in tourism geography obtained?

Chapter III Forecast of Tourism Demand

Teaching objectives:

1. Grasp the factors that affect tourism demand and pay attention to the spatial and temporal distribution of tourism demand.

2. Understand the establishment methods of trend extrapolation model and gravity model.

Emphasis and difficulty: the elements of tourism demand and the factors of spatial and temporal distribution concentration of tourism demand.

Section 1 Factors Affecting Tourism Demand

First, the factors affecting tourism demand

Tourism demand-the quantity (type) of tourism products that tourists are willing and able to buy at a certain price in a certain period, that is, the quantity that tourists need for a certain tourism project.

1. Factors affecting tourism demand: tourist source and destination.

(1) Economic development level The economic development level of a tourist destination is the decisive factor that affects tourism demand.

Population characteristics: the total population, population growth rate, urban and rural population density, age structure, gender structure and family structure have certain influence on tourism demand.

Income and leisure: Tourism, as a social and economic activity, must have sufficient economic payment ability and free time. It is disposable income that determines tourism demand. The time of human activities can be divided into four types: earning a living time, physical necessity time, housework time, social activity time and leisure time.

(2) Vocational and educational level

(3) Resources and transportation

(4) Price and exchange rate: Tourism demand is always inversely proportional to price changes, and exchange rate changes affect international tourism demand. If the tourism price remains unchanged, it means that the tourism price will drop and the tourism demand will increase.

Second, the information acquisition of tourism demand forecast

Section 2 Spatial and Temporal Distribution Concentration of Tourism Demand

An obvious leasing feature of tourism demand is that the demand changes dramatically with time, and another feature is that each tourist destination has its own relatively fixed source of tourists. It is helpful for tourism planning and management to measure the change of tourism demand with time and the spatial change of tourist sources from water lilies.

First, the time distribution of tourism demand is concentrated.

1, seasonal intensity index

The time distribution concentration of tourism demand is caused by tourism seasonality, which can be quantitatively analyzed by seasonal intensity index. The calculation formula is:

r =[∑(Xi-8.33)2] 1/2(I = 1，2，3… 12)

1, peak index The change of tourism demand with time can also be measured by peak index, which indicates the usage trend of tourism facilities in a certain period compared with other periods. Its calculation formula is:

pn =(v 1—V2)/(n— 1)v 1× 100

1, spatial distribution index of tourism demand

g = 100×∑[(Xi/T)2] 1/2

Where: g is the geographical concentration index of tourist destinations;

Xi is the number of tourists in the I-th source area;

T is the total number of tourists received by the tourist destination;

N is the total number of tourist destinations;

The more concentrated the tourists are, the closer G is to100; The smaller the G value, the more and more dispersed the tourist destinations.

The geographical concentration index can be used to indicate the geographical source and intensity of tourists.

This is a value, and there is no requirement for the calculation of this value in the examination syllabus of the travel place, just like π in mathematics, as long as you know it. The key is to calculate r, which needs to be mastered.