The policy bill of Taiwan Province Province has passed the first level, and the next step is affected by three factors.

Three factors affect the next step when the policy bill of Taiwan Province Province is passed. On the evening of June 5438+05, Taiwanese media issued a document saying that the controversial and variable "Taiwan Province Policy Bill" finally came out of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. However, faced with the pressure of mid-term elections, all political parties and members of Congress have their own plans for this bill, and how Biden's government balances its relations with Chinese mainland will affect the retention or abolition of this bill.

Since the situation in the United States and Taiwan has warmed up, members of Congress have been competing to put forward various proposals for the Taiwan Province platform, and even asked the United States and Taiwan to "establish diplomatic relations"; In response to the increasing "compulsory action" of the People's Liberation Army against Taiwan Province Province, proposals for military funding and security assistance to Taiwan were put forward one after another last year.

The article points out that the contents of this "Taiwan Province Policy Bill" are actually mixed with the contents of various proposals in recent years; There are military security, international participation, academic exchanges and economic and trade cooperation, especially providing free military assistance to Taiwan Province Province and sanctioning senior officials in Chinese mainland.

Meinander, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, was also the initiator, and used the power of arranging cases to let the "Taiwan Province Policy Law" be sent out of the Committee, but there was not much time left for the "Taiwan Province Policy Law".

From now until the expiration of the term of office next year, the meeting will last less than 50 days. If the Senate wants to pass, the House of Representatives can propose or accept the Senate version in its entirety, and the time is extremely limited. If there is a gap between the versions of the two houses, an additional coordination meeting will be held until a consensus is reached before it can be passed and sent to US President Biden for signature.

If the executive does not agree, Biden can still veto the bill passed by Congress, then the two houses must vote to overturn the president's veto, which involves complex political wrestling and will be a time-consuming variable.

In addition, the situation in the US Congress is not simple; First of all, this is a bill that has received unanimous but not overwhelming support from all parties. The voting result of the Foreign Affairs Committee is 17, with 5 votes against; The five negative votes include four members of the Democratic Party, who belong to the same party as the chairman. If this bill is to move forward, the Democratic Party may have to make great efforts to integrate it.

Secondly, before the review meeting, the White House executives expressed concern about the content of this bill; It also represents the reservation of the administrative department.

At the meeting, * * * and Senator Romney, who participated in the deliberation, hit the nail on the head and said that the aid to the Taiwan military that could have been completed in a low-key way with the National Defense Authorization Act was completed in a very provocative and militant way. He only hopes that Chinese mainland will not think that Taiwan Province Province will become stronger and further expand its actions.

Judging from the terms and conditions, it is a pioneering work for Taiwan Province Province to provide military assistance free of charge, but what we mean here is that the equipment is not cash, and it should all be spent on American defense industry manufacturers, rather than Taiwan Province Province's own research and development.

The article points out that the security environment in Taiwan Province Province has not deteriorated instantly. Budget for many years, now there is a fortune that falls from the sky, but it can't be used at will, which inevitably makes people worry that Taiwan Province Province will only take orders from the United States in the future and will lose its leading role in building the army.

The article holds that a "Policy Law of Taiwan Province Province" costs $6.5 billion in five years, which highlights the support of Congress for Taiwan Province Province, but if it is not approved by the administrative department in the end, the bill will eventually become a bubble.

1999 "Strengthening Taiwan Province's Security Law" is a precedent. This bill is also based on the revision of the Taiwan Relations Act, but the Clinton administration openly opposed it for fear of causing regional turmoil, and the current US President Biden, then a senior senator of the Foreign Relations Committee, also highly reserved it. In the end, the whole case was stillborn.

The article points out that the fact before us is that this "Taiwan Province Policy Act" is still looking forward to bilateral relations on the shoulders of the "Taiwan Province Relations Act" that "the United States maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan Province"; Security is still the focus of this "unofficial relationship", and the "diplomatic recognition" that Taiwan Province people want is still out of consideration.