How much will tourism lose in 2020?

At the beginning of 2020, China's tourism industry has almost stopped, and the global tourism industry has been affected to some extent. A large number of routes were closed, and mirror tours and domestic tours were all cancelled. So how much harm will the epidemic in the golden period of the Spring Festival do to the tourism industry?

How much will tourism lose in 2020? The specific data is not clear, and the preliminary estimate is about 3 trillion. Of course, this is only a personal estimate, and there may be a big deviation.

With the scenic spots closed and the traffic stopped, it is difficult to cope with the wave of refund. On the day before the Lunar New Year in the Year of the Rat, COVID-19 dealt the most severe blow to the tourism industry: the Ministry of Culture and Tourism stopped group tours and "air ticket+hotel" products of national travel agencies for fear of the spread of the epidemic. Up to now, the tourism industry has been shut down for nearly a month. Travel agencies not only have no income, but also face a wave of refunds, and some small travel companies are at risk of bankruptcy.

Some organizations believe that the most pessimistic estimate is that the tourism industry will lose nearly 3 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) this year, which is about half of last year's income. The number of tourists and income may not return to normal until the May 1 Golden Week, and it is expected that it will gradually resume business in the second half of the year.

"The salary that should have been paid in early February has not moved yet. Besides, without a team, I can't earn a 400-a-day tour fee to 500 yuan. I really lost money from February. Mr. Tan, a senior tour guide of a state-run travel agency in Shanghai, complained to the Hong Kong Evening News reporter that the Spring Festival was originally a tourist peak season, and the turnover in just one week in previous years accounted for almost 20% to 30% of the whole year. Now an urgent bus came and he was declared "unemployed indefinitely".

Mr. Tan's present situation is only a microcosm of tourism. According to the data of the Ministry of Communications, the number of national tourists during the Golden Week of the Spring Festival this year totaled 654.38+0.5 billion, which was 63% lower than the 420 million during the Spring Festival of 2065.438+09.

If the annual loss is estimated, Hong Qinghua, chairman of Jingyu Lvma Group, said that the tourism economic loss account is divided into two accounts, one has already occurred and the other will happen next. The loss of tourism income during the Spring Festival has reached 50 million yuan. If the epidemic can be completely controlled in April, the tourism market may not recover until July. Mama Donkey thinks the loss is about 1.8 trillion yuan. According to China's total tourism revenue of 6.5 trillion in 2065,438+09, this account will shrink by 28% this year.

However, some institutions predict that the annual income loss of domestic tourism will reach 3 trillion yuan, which will lead to a loss of 46%, which is basically the reduction of tourism income last year.

Guests flocked to ask for a refund. "If there is no business, it is not bad, but the refund is one after another, and some are untenable. Lao Wu, who runs a private travel agency, looks sad. He told the Hong Kong Evening News reporter that his travel agency mainly provides group tours for corporate customers. A month before the Spring Festival, many groups are fully booked. According to the process, air tickets, ground transportation, hotel accommodation, etc. They were all paid in advance, and suddenly the tour with the group stopped, and then guests flocked to ask for a refund.

Refunds from small travel companies are still "pouring in", and travel giants like Ctrip have described the refund tide as "a huge wave moment". Ctrip told the Hong Kong Morning Post reporter that due to the suspension of all group tours, the average daily refund telephone number of the call center reached 1.5 million. From June 26th, 65438+1October 30th, Ctrip cancelled the global group tours, semi-self-help tours and customized tours before February 29th for free, as of June 30th.

Lao Wu said, "The money of the Spring Festival tour group has already been paid out, and hotels and airlines cannot fully refund it. If the guest asks for a full refund without damage, the loss will be borne by the travel agency, which is enough to crush a small and medium-sized enterprise. Ctrip said that during the Spring Festival, there is no exact figure for the specific losses, but according to the unsubscribe data and estimates, the relevant guarantee amount has been raised from 654.38 billion yuan to 200 million yuan. Mama Donkey also said that the revenue loss as of February 5 should be calculated at the level of 100 million yuan, including returning tourists' funds and prepaying resources and suppliers.

The industry expects no income for 5 months. At present, there is still no timetable for the resumption of group tours in China. The reporter asked a number of travel agencies to learn that many of them are not expected to reopen until the end of May, and some say that they will fully resume at the end of June. In this way, there will be five months of downtime. Hong Qinghua also said that we should have the strongest sense of crisis in the face of the sudden epidemic. "We should be prepared to have no revenue for three to five months, or 10 months or even low revenue for the whole year. 」

According to a research report of New Era Securities Research Institute, referring to the impact of SARS on tourism, it is predicted that the growth rate of tourists and income will drop to a great extent during the Golden Week on May 1 this year, and the impact may last for more than half a year, and it will not be possible to gradually resume business until the Golden Week.