What does the epidemic inflection point mean?

1 inflection point is a mathematical term, which refers to the point that changes the upward or downward direction of the curve. Intuitively speaking, inflection point is the point that makes the tangent cross the curve (that is, the concave-convex boundary point of the curve). The inflection point of epidemic situation refers to the place where the epidemic situation is controlled and begins to change in a good direction. The decline in the number of suspected infections and the decline in the number of cases are the signs of the inflection point.

inflection point, also known as inflection point, mathematically refers to the point that changes the upward or downward direction of the curve. Intuitively speaking, inflection point is the point that makes the tangent cross the curve (that is, the boundary point between the concave arc and the convex arc of a continuous curve). If the function of the curve graph has a second derivative at the inflection point, the second derivative has a different sign (from positive to negative or from negative to positive) or does not exist at the inflection point.

during the COVID-19 epidemic, major news media frequently mentioned it? Epidemic inflection point? A word, for example? Will the inflection point of the epidemic we are looking forward to appear? 、? Will the inflection point of the epidemic come within a month? 、? May there be an inflection point in the epidemic before the fifteenth day of the first month? Wait a minute.

what is the inflection point of the epidemic?

inflection point refers to the place where the development trend of things begins to change in life. The inflection point of epidemic situation means that the epidemic situation is under control, and the decline in the number of suspected infections and the decline in the number of cases are the signs of the inflection point.

what are the influencing factors of epidemic inflection point?

all infections will have a downward process. The time of decline depends on the level of group immunity and whether the intervention measures taken are effective.

group immunity is the resistance of the population to the invasion and spread of infectious disease pathogens, which is reflected by the proportion of the population with immunity to the total population.

Academician Wen Yumei regards the improvement of group immunity as the most important factor for the inflection point.

Therefore, the infected people are found early and isolated early; The medical team developed novel coronavirus's vaccine, strengthened contact tracking and quarantine isolation; People wear masks, try to avoid contact with people, work and rest regularly, and enhance their own resistance. These measures can promote the emergence of turning points as soon as possible.

how to get the time when the epidemic inflection point appears?

The inflection point can be found according to the epidemiological model. By establishing a mathematical model to fit the cumulative incidence data of COVID-19, we can infer the peak incidence, duration of the incidence and cumulative number of patients, and draw an epidemic curve to grasp the epidemic situation.

However, the analysis and prediction in the model need certain preconditions, such as the possibility of infection between people is not much different, the transmission route is easy to realize and the comprehensive prevention index is relatively unchanged. Any change of these preconditions will affect the change of epidemic peak and epidemic situation.

At present, many research teams from Lancaster University in the UK, Johns Hopkins University in the US, Hong Kong University and other universities have assessed and predicted the transmission path and speed of the virus through modeling, so as to better grasp the impact and epidemic characteristics of novel coronavirus.

Actually, any model is just a tool for analysis and prediction. It is based on the existing data and information, and its conclusion may be relatively accurate or even accurate, which is of great reference significance for people to judge the epidemic trend and make decisions. However, we must also understand that all forecasting models have limitations, and we still cannot predict the exact date of the epidemic inflection point. The inflection point of epidemic situation may be of limited importance to individuals, but it is still very important for the decision-making and deployment of epidemic prevention. According to experts, although right? Turning point? It can't be predicted accurately, but it won't wait long.