How much will tourism lose in 2020?

At the beginning of 2020, China's tourism industry almost stagnated, and the global tourism industry was affected to some extent. A large number of air routes were closed, and all sightseeing tours and domestic tours were cancelled. Then, how much damage will the epidemic in the golden period of the Spring Festival cause to the tourism industry?

How much will tourism lose in 2020?

The specific data is not clear, and the preliminary estimate is about 3 trillion. Of course, this is only a personal estimate, and there may be a big deviation.

Lunar year of the rat (scenic spots closed, traffic stopped, and the wave of refunds was difficult to cope with.

The day before, COVID-19 dealt the most severe blow to tourism: for fear of the spread of the epidemic, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism stopped group tours and "air ticket hotel" products of national travel agencies. So far, tourism has been suspended for nearly a month. Travel agencies not only have no income, but also face a wave of refunds. Some small travel companies are in danger of bankruptcy.

According to some organizations, the most pessimistic estimate is that the tourism industry will lose nearly 3 trillion yuan this year, which is about half of last year's income. The number and income of tourists may not return to normal until the May Day Golden Week. It is expected that the industry will gradually recover in the second half of the year.

"The salary that should have been paid in February has not been paid yet. Besides, without a team, I can't earn a 400-a-day tour fee to 500 yuan. Since February, I really have no income. Teacher Tan is a senior tour guide of a state-run travel agency in Shanghai. She complained to the Evening News reporter that the Spring Festival was originally a tourist season. In previous years, the turnover in just one week accounted for almost 20% to 30% of the whole year, but now she suddenly stopped and was declared "unemployed indefinitely".

Teacher Tan's present situation is only a microcosm of tourism. According to the data of the Ministry of Communications, the number of national tourists during the Golden Week of the Spring Festival this year was 65.438+0.5 billion, which was 63% lower than the 420 million during the Spring Festival of 2065.438+09.

If the annual loss is estimated, Hong Qinghua, chairman of Jingyu Lvma Group, said that the tourism economic loss account is divided into two accounts, one has already occurred and the other will happen next. The loss of tourism income during the Spring Festival has reached 50 million yuan. If the epidemic can be completely controlled in April, the tourism market may not recover until July. Mama Donkey thinks the loss amount is about 1.8 trillion. According to the total tourism revenue of China in 2065438+2009, this account will shrink by 28% this year.

However, some institutions predict that the annual income loss of domestic tourism will reach 3 trillion yuan, which will lead to a loss of 46%, which is basically half of last year's tourism income.

Guests flocked to ask for a refund.

"If there is no business, it is not bad, but the refunds are one after another, and some are untenable. Lao Wu, who runs a private travel agency, has a long face. He told the Business Daily that his own travel agency mainly deals in group travel. A month before the Spring Festival, many groups were occupied. According to the procedures, such as air tickets, ground transportation, hotel accommodation, etc. The money is paid in advance. Suddenly the tour with the group stopped, and then guests flocked to ask for a refund.

Refunds from small travel companies are still "pouring in", and travel giants like Ctrip have described the refund tide as "the moment of huge waves". Ctrip told the Business Daily that since the country requested to suspend all group tours, the call center has received a refund call of 1.5 million every day. Ctrip cancels1from October 26th to February 29th, 65438+ free global group tour, semi-self-help tour and customized tour. By the end of 65438+ 10-30, the cancellation of orders in just a few days has been completed by millions of orders.

Lao Wu said, "the money for the Spring Festival tour group has already been paid out, hotels, airlines and so on. Can't return it all. If the guest asks for a full refund without damage, the travel agency will bear all the losses, which is enough to crush a small and medium-sized enterprise. Ctrip said that there is no exact figure on the specific loss of refund during Spring Festival travel rush. However, according to the unsubscribe data and forecast, the relevant guarantee amount is raised from 1 100 million yuan to 200 million yuan. My mother also said that the loss of income as of February 5 should be calculated as follows

The industry expects no revenue for five months.

At present, there is no timetable for the resumption of group tours in China. The reporter asked a number of travel agencies to understand that many travel agencies estimated that they would reopen at the end of May, and some said that they would fully resume at the end of June. So, it will stop for five months. Hong Qinghua also said that we should have the strongest sense of crisis in the face of the sudden epidemic. "We should be prepared to have no income for three to five months, or even 10 months or even low income for the whole year. 」

According to a research report of New Era Securities Research Institute, referring to the impact of SARS on tourism, it is predicted that the growth rate of tourists and income will drop significantly during the Golden Week on May 1 this year, and the impact may last for more than half a year, and it may not be possible to gradually resume business before the Golden Week.