Document No.1 of the Central Committee was issued to comprehensively deepen rural reform.

Main recommendations

Document No.1 of the Central Committee was issued to comprehensively deepen rural reform.

2065438+2009 photovoltaic scale management new policy is discussed for the first time, and cheap internet access will accelerate, which will benefit the leading photovoltaic industry.

Market review

Market Comments: The market is poised for shock, and the short-term defensive counterattack is doing well. The midline actively chooses high-quality targets for layout.

Macro view: both onshore and offshore RMB rose above the 6.72 mark against the US dollar.

Banking: Policy plus industry fundamentals are expected to improve, optimistic about valuation repair.

Futures information

Metal energy: gold 293.85, up 0.58%; Copper 496 10, up 0.79%; Rebar 3590, down 0.88%; Rubber 12595, up by 2.57%; The PVC index was 6425, up by 0.47%; Zheng Chun 2495, up 0.97%; Shanghai aluminum 135 10, up 0.41%; Shanghai nickel 100770, up1.59%; Iron ore 6 10.0, down1.93%; Coke 2 105.0, up 2.09%; Coking coal 1283.0, up 0.71%; Brent oil was 66.85, up 1.03%.

Agricultural products: soybean oil 5744, down 0.76%; Corn 18 17, down 0.76%; Palm oil 4752, down1.53%; Cotton 15535, up by 0.97%; Zheng Mai 2427, up 0.25%; White sugar 5097, up 0.79%; Apple 10355, up 0.37%.

Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 13, down 0.02%; USD/RMB 6.72, down 0.56%; USD/HK$ 7.85, up 0.0 1%.

Main recommendations

1, the No.1 document of the Central Committee was issued to comprehensively deepen rural reform.

Event: On February 9th, 20 19, "Several Opinions of the Central Committee of the State Council on Giving Priority to the Development of Agriculture and Rural Areas and Doing a Good Job in" Agriculture, Countryside and Farmers "was officially issued.

Comments: 20 19 Document No.1 of the Central Committee still focuses on "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", focusing on solving the problem of agricultural product supply security and the development of emerging industries in rural areas, and proposing giving priority to the development of agriculture and rural areas, which indicates that agriculture will become the highlight of the central economy. In this year's No.1 Document of the Central Committee, it is proposed to "deepen the structural reform of the agricultural supply side, resolutely win the battle against poverty, give full play to the role of rural grassroots party organizations as a fighting fortress, comprehensively promote rural revitalization, and ensure the successful completion of the rural reform and development goals and tasks promised in 2020." In this document, solving poverty is still the top priority. In terms of rural reform, rural basic management system, rural land knowledge and rural collective property rights system are three key points. The "Opinions" pointed out that "focusing on family farms and farmers' cooperatives, we will start the family farm cultivation plan, carry out standardized promotion of farmers' cooperatives, further promote the construction of demonstration cooperatives, and establish and improve the policy system and management system to support the development of family farms and farmers' cooperatives. "In the future, these two models are expected to become the development trend of rural industries, promote the scale, intensification and industrialization of agriculture, enhance the efficiency of rural industries and enhance agricultural competitiveness. On the one hand, the main tone of the policy focuses on solving the agricultural security problems brought about by the change of grain supply and demand structure under the background of Sino-US trade friction; On the other hand, while continuing to promote the rural revitalization policy, we will strive to support rural tourism, "internet plus" and other new directions of agricultural and rural development.

(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)

2, 2065438+2009, the new policy of photovoltaic scale management was discussed for the first time, and cheap internet access will accelerate, which will benefit the leading photovoltaic industry.

Event: On the afternoon of February 18, the Department of New Energy and Renewable Energy of the National Energy Administration held a symposium on photovoltaic power generation construction management in 20 19 to solicit opinions from enterprises.

Comments: Compared with the policies of the past few years, the discussion draft of this meeting has remarkable characteristics and innovatively introduced the bidding mechanism. Under the New Deal, the National Energy Administration will no longer set the annual subsidy installed capacity, but determine the total amount of subsidies, determine the subsidy intensity through market competition, and then determine the new installed capacity. The New Deal plan further divides subsidized photovoltaic projects into five categories, and photovoltaic poverty alleviation is implemented in accordance with relevant national policies; Household photovoltaic is determined by the National Energy Administration to support the annual total installed capacity, and is managed separately according to the fixed subsidy standard; Special projects such as the front runner and supporting facilities of UHV channel do not carry out subsidy declaration and competition sorting, and implement the on-grid electricity price and corresponding subsidy standards determined by bidding for each project; In addition, all other projects, including distributed and ground power stations, obtain subsidy indicators by means of bidding. The New Deal reduces the subsidy intensity by introducing competitive allocation and using market-oriented means, thus opening up space for new installed capacity in the industry. By introducing the bidding mechanism, the New Deal achieved the goal of reducing subsidies and driving the installed capacity growth of the industry. On the other hand, it is conducive to alleviating the contradiction between subsidy arrears and new installed capacity, and reducing the project capital cost; In addition, through the use of market-oriented means, we can also improve the efficiency of the use of subsidy funds, and give priority to the allocation of funds to projects and regions where the demand for subsidies has dropped rapidly, thus speeding up the process of parity online access. The new policy puts forward higher requirements for the cost reduction of photovoltaic systems. The leading photovoltaic industry has obvious advantages in scale, automation upgrade, process transformation and efficient product provision scheme, and has greater potential and space for cost reduction. If the new photovoltaic management policy is implemented, the leading photovoltaic industry will fully benefit.

(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)

Market review

1, market comments: the market is poised for shock, and the short-term defensive counterattack is doing well. The midline actively chooses high-quality targets for layout.

On Wednesday, A shares continued to maintain shock consolidation, and the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and Growth Enterprise Market Index all closed slightly higher. The market turnover has shrunk, the industry sector has gone up and down, the agricultural sector has a strong trend, and many stocks in the sector have daily limit. In the short term, we believe that even if we don't guess that the policy and economic fundamentals may exceed expectations, the big logic of market valuation repair at this stage will continue, and most stocks still at the bottom of the historical valuation range still have major repair opportunities, which is still the golden stage of individual stock operation. Foreign capital continues to flow in on a large scale. When the market is agitated in the spring, the technical callback in operation is a good opportunity to actively cover the positions of high-quality companies, and continue to pay attention to the repair opportunities of elastic sectors such as TMT, brokerage and military industry, as well as policy themes such as agriculture, science and technology and new energy. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.

(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)

2. Macro view: Both onshore and offshore RMB rose above the 6.72 mark against the US dollar.

Both onshore and offshore RMB rose above the 6.72 mark against the US dollar, with the highest onshore RMB 6.7 182 and the highest offshore RMB 6.7 192. The US dollar index continued its weak operation, which boosted the performance of RMB against the US dollar to some extent.

(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)

3. Banking: The fundamentals of the policy plus industry are expected to improve, and the valuation is optimistic.

The management said that it is helpful to stabilize market expectations to clarify the policy objectives of steady growth and risk prevention. Judging from the strength of the market and the fundamentals of banks, the defensive value or relative income value of banking stocks will be very prominent in the next two quarters. The main reason is that from the perspective of capital repricing, the bank's weighted loan yield will remain high and tend to be stable, which will directly benefit the bank's net interest margin. We are optimistic about big banks and big retail banks with stable customer structure. ?

(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)