Tourism development trends and recovery time in 2020

The beginning of the new year in 2020 has cast a shadow over mankind. The epidemic is raging, and all scenic spots and entertainment projects in various places have been temporarily closed. It was originally a good peak season for tourism, but now they are all closed. The tourism industry Facing the most severe test in decades, what is the current status of the tourism industry in 2020 and its future development trend?

Starting from the Spring Festival in 2020, the epidemic numbers have changed daily, including isolation, masks, disinfection, and rest. , causing many people's emotions to hit rock bottom like a "V". At the tourism industry level, the number of travel agencies affected by the new coronavirus epidemic has more than tripled compared to the SARS period.

The annual tourism industry losses are expected to reach 1 billion yuan, or 10% of GDP. Many travel practitioners have experienced the storm and canceled their subscriptions, but they firmly believe that "the V-shaped bottom has been reached" and the ice has melted and they are looking forward to revival.

Ordinary tourists are also lamenting: "Where have the flowers, the sunshine on the beach, and the people showing off foreign delicacies gone?

They have disappeared from our circle of friends for 3 months. Foot restrictions and masks , is not the right way to start life. "Many people open various social software to "plant grass" for the next trip.

As the wave of resumption of work begins across the country, people are gradually returning to their usual lives, and the tourism industry is also ready to prepare for the recovery of various markets.

Currently, nearly 2,000 pre-sale products of big-name scenic spots have been launched on Meituan, which has more than doubled in a week; "May Day" hotel searches increased by 35%, and more than 50% of tourists have rebooked Spring Festival itineraries;

More and more scenic spots have crowded queues after resuming operations, and have started to limit traffic... People who have been suppressed for a long time are freed from the cage, and their desire to travel can't help but fly into the distance.

At the same time, Ctrip used the big data platform "Travel Observer" to conduct "recovery score" statistics on hundreds of destinations and released the "2020 Destination Recovery Index Report" (hereinafter referred to as the report). The recovery index of 40 destinations exceeds 50

This comprehensive report combines the recovery data of the global tourism industry before and after public health and safety incidents in recent years, the growth scale of the tourism industry from 2019 to 2020, and the development of the epidemic. The 2020 industry recovery prediction model is established based on predictions, platform users' search, browsing, ordering, collection and seasonal factors.

According to the results presented by this model, as the epidemic is gradually controlled and eased, after the industry has experienced a trough, it will begin to rebound steadily as the epidemic is controlled, and with the increase of traditional tourism nodes such as May Day and summer vacation, Arrival began to gain growth, and the trend throughout the year showed a clear V-shape. The Spring Festival holiday at the end of the year and even in 2021 should be expected to reach the highest point of the retaliatory rebound.

According to reports, this report compares the differences between comprehensive data with and without the epidemic, supplemented by corresponding algorithms, to obtain destination recovery index data, and 50 points is a key node. The report results show that more than 40 domestic destinations have a recovery index exceeding 50, showing signs of early recovery.

In the list of domestic "popular destinations with wish index", Sanya, Chengdu, and Guizhou rank among the top three in the country, followed by Shanghai, Xi'an, Beijing, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Kaifeng, Chongqing, Qingdao, Changsha, Suzhou, Huangshan, Huzhou, Tibet, Shenzhen, Wuyuan, and Guangxi were also on the list simultaneously.

For the overseas part, in addition to the three "old friends" of Thailand, Japan, and Singapore, the countries on the list also include Vietnam, Dubai, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada, Morocco, New Zealand, Italy, South Korea, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Israel and Fiji. Domestic: Confidence in “peripheral travel” in first-tier cities has rebounded

High expectations for “themed tours”

Travel confidence affected by the epidemic may begin to rebound from “peripheral travel”. The report shows that consumers in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are very much looking forward to "traveling around", including Tianjin, Qinhuangdao, Zhangjiakou, Baoding and Jinan around Beijing; Huzhou, Huangshan, Lishui, Suzhou and Hangzhou around Shanghai;

Macau, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhanjiang, Guilin and other places around Guangzhou have all entered the top 5 of the "surrounding travel" wish destination index list. In addition, the aspiration index of Chengdu and surrounding Guizhou, Chongqing, Garze Prefecture, Lijiang and Shangri-La is increasing day by day.

Although the epidemic is not over, many consumers have begun to yearn for "outings", "flower viewing" and "seeing the sea". Wuyuan, Luoyang, Dalian, Tibet, and Qinghai, which are famous for their flowers, have the highest wish index; Huangshan, Yangzhou, Yanqing, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia rank at the top of the "outing" category; as temperatures rise, Sanya, Xiamen, Qingdao, Rizhao, and Ningbo top the list. Ranked among the “popular seaside wish destinations” in the country.

In the list of popular topics, the wish index in the three dimensions of "parenting and children", "ancient city" and "food" shows strong momentum. Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Suzhou, Hangzhou and other places are more attractive to parent-child families; Xi'an, Kaifeng, Jingzhou, Jincheng, Shenyang with "Chinese style" attributes top the list of "ancient city destinations"; Because gourmets who have endured the epidemic for a long time prefer regional cities such as West China and South China, Guangdong, Shanghai, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Changsha may welcome a large number of "diners" after the epidemic.

Overseas: "Islands", "parent-child shopping" and "exotic customs" have become keywords

Since 2013, China has ranked first in the world in the number of outbound tourists and the enthusiasm for "buying, buying and buying". The report also It can be seen that although the epidemic is still dormant, the Chinese people's enthusiasm for beaches, shopping, and exotic customs can no longer be restrained.

In the list of overseas destinations including "parenting", "shopping" and "exotic customs", Japan is the first choice and has become a favorite among Chinese people; Singapore, Italy, the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, Dubai, Canada, etc. Popular destinations follow.

Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam, Fiji and Greece have become the dream beaches that everyone wants to fly to; places such as Morocco, Abu Dhabi, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Israel, Argentina and Serbia are It occupied a place on the list with its "exotic style". Seize the opportunity, be prepared, wait for good times and go all out

According to the "2019 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin", there were 6.01 billion domestic tourists in 2019, an increase of 8.4% over the previous year; Tourism revenue was 5,725.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7%. According to the original growth forecast, it would exceed 6 trillion this year.

"Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development in 2019"

As the first happiness industry, tourism has its due share. This time, affected by the epidemic, everyone's travel demand has only been temporarily suppressed. . In the long term, the epidemic will eventually pass and the market will eventually fully launch.

Tourists' pent-up demand in the short term will show retaliatory growth after the epidemic is over. The tourism industry will not only get back on track, but will even experience a "blowout" situation.

Faced with such huge potential tourism demand, tourism companies need to be confident about the future. Tourism is a highly market-oriented industry. As long as market demand restarts, the corresponding tourism economic system can quickly resume operation.

In such a special period, companies must seize the opportunities hidden in the trough period, be ready for optimization and upgrading, cope with the future market recovery, and send positive signals to the tourism market to build public confidence in tourism. , once the wave of travel hits, you who are ready and go all out will naturally be the best in riding the waves.