Basic principles of tourism market forecast

Basic principles of tourism market forecast

According to the development and change of things, in the long run, it has the law of maintaining the original trend and state in a certain time and under certain conditions. Using the historical and current information of market phenomena, according to its development inertia, we can infer its future changing trend. Such as time series prediction. 2 analogy principle. The principle of analogy is that there are objective similarities in structure, mode, nature and development trend according to many phenomena in market activities. On the basis of knowing the development and change process of something in the market, we can infer the possible future development and change trend of similar things through analogy. For example, the market life cycle of similar products can be predicted according to the life cycle of some products. 3 Relevant principles. The principle of correlation means that many phenomena or things are interrelated, so we should pay attention to the correlation between things. When we know that one thing has changed, we can infer the changing trend of another thing. For example, there is a strong correlation between the demand for baby food and the number of babies. If we know the number of babies born in the future, we can predict the demand for baby food. 4 probability principle. Probability principle refers to the existence of inevitability and contingency in the process of market development, and inevitability is hidden in contingency. By analyzing the contingency of market development and revealing the hidden inevitability, we can infer the future of market development. For example, Markov prediction method and cross-influence method all need to use probability principle.