Having caused more than 100 deaths, Hurricane Ian may affect U.S. GDP growth

Text/Observer Network Zhang Jingjuan integrated reports from the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) and the American Cable News Network (CNN). As of the evening of October 3, at least Ian, one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the United States, killed 105 people, including 101 in Florida and four in North Carolina. Economists analyze that "Ian" may cause losses to the United States of more than 50 billion U.S. dollars, and will affect the growth of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). It may reduce GDP by 0.3% in the third quarter and cause a decline in the fourth quarter. 0.1%.

On October 3, 2022, local time, in Florida, the United States, aerial photography was taken of houses destroyed by Hurricane Ian.

The death toll is expected to continue to rise as floodwaters recede and search and rescue teams push deeper into areas that were initially cut off from the outside world.

As of Monday night, 101 people have been confirmed dead in Florida, of which 54 and 24 were confirmed dead in Lee County and Charlotte County respectively.

According to reports, the death toll reported in Lee County on Monday was higher than the previously announced 42 people. The local government department was questioned for not issuing a compulsory evacuation order earlier, which resulted in a large number of people not having time to evacuate. Previously, Lee County officials did not order evacuations until the day before "Ian" made landfall (September 27).

However, local officials and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis defended Lee County's preparations for the hurricane.

"Everyone wants to focus on a plan that might be done differently. We did what we had to do at the same time and I wouldn't change anything." Local officials defended It said that the mandatory evacuation order was issued in a timely and appropriate manner, and the place made the decision to evacuate as soon as possible, but many people did not choose to go to the shelter.

On September 29, 2022, local time, Fort Myers, Florida, USA, Category 4 Hurricane "Ian" hit Fort Myers on the west coast of Florida, aerial photography Communities damaged by hurricanes.

After the hurricane devastated many communities in Florida, many communities were beyond recognition and many people did not have access to clean drinking water.

In addition, due to the structural damage caused by the hurricane, it will still take some time for power supply to be fully restored in some areas of the country, and some severely affected areas may not be able to do so for weeks or months. Restore power.

According to a report by PowerOutage.us, which tracks power outages across the United States, more than 491,000 customers in Florida are still without power five days after Hurricane Ian passed through.

According to reports, hundreds of people have been rescued as rescuers continued to search through flooded or destroyed homes and buildings.

It is worth noting that although the hurricane has passed, the life-threatening flooding caused by "Ian" has not yet ended, and water levels continue to rise in some areas. Florida Governor DeSantis has said that the rising water levels caused by "Ian" in parts of Florida are "basically a once-in-500-year flood event."

Emergency management officials in Seminole County, Florida, USA revealed that floods in areas near the St. Johns River, Lake Monroe and Lake Harney continued to rise in the days after the passage of the hurricane. In the past 24 hours, another 100 homes suffered flood damage.

Hurricane Ian caused widespread flooding in many areas. Source: Orlando Sentinel

After "Ian" swept across Florida, the floods receded , the once lively resort has now become lifeless. The Florida resorts of Sanibel Island and Captiva Island have been completely cut off from the mainland due to levee collapse.

Amy Lynn told CNN that when "Ian" made landfall, she was at a friend's home and could only hear the wind howling outside. She hid in the closet with her seven dogs.

After praying for 6 hours, everything finally returned to calm. However, when Lynn came out of the house, the house had been severely damaged. The walls were blown off by the wind, and large pieces of coating were blown off. Blowing in the wind.

"We lost everything, my car is gone, I haven't gone back to see my house and I heard it was destroyed, but luckily we survived."

"This is more than a devastating blow. The heart of Florida's southwest coast has been changed forever," Lynn wrote on social media.

Hurricane Ian destroyed part of the Sanibel Causeway, which connects Sanibel Island to the mainland. Source: NPR

Sanibel Sosa, the local official of the island, said, "I don't know how many people are still trapped on the island. All the infrastructure needed to maintain daily life on the island has been severely damaged."

"Can we get some help, look around there is nothing left, we have no power, no cell phone signal, nothing," complained Anderson, a resident affected by the disaster.

On October 1, local time, people evacuated from Sanibel Island by boat. Source: The Washington Post

According to the analysis of many economists, the economic losses caused by Hurricane Ian to the United States may exceed 50 billion US dollars, and the overall economic output of the United States will also be affected.

Laura Ratz, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, initially estimated that the storm could bring economic losses of 45 billion to 55 billion U.S. dollars to Florida, and at least 100 million U.S. dollars to South Carolina. Billions of dollars.

"It looks like 'Ian' is on track to join the ranks of the costliest natural disasters in recent years," Ratz wrote in a note over the weekend.

At the same time, hurricanes have had a serious impact on the economies of Florida and South Carolina. According to data from Oxford Economics, economic growth in these two states fell by 3 percentage points and 2 percentage points respectively in the third quarter. percentage point.

More importantly, in the short term, this storm will also affect U.S. GDP growth.

Gregory Darko, chief economist at EY Parthenon, predicts that Hurricane Ian may reduce U.S. GDP by 0.3 percentage points in the third quarter and bring down the impact in the fourth quarter. down 0.1 percentage points.

"For the national economy, the series of impacts caused by the hurricane may be invisible," Darko said, and some economic activities may never be restored or even completely replaced by reconstruction efforts.

Florida after the floods receded. Source: FISM News

Matthew Martin, an American economist at Oxford Economics, believes that for Florida The impact on the economies of states and local tourism-focused places like South Carolina will be “severe.”

"Loss in the hospitality, retail and health care industries in Florida and South Carolina will be key to assessing the economic impact," Martin wrote in a note published on September 30. These industries together account for about 20% of the GDP of the two states and create 40% of their employment opportunities.

On September 28, "Ian" hit the southwest coast of Florida with Category 4 hurricane intensity. Landing, it brought heavy rain, storm surges and floods to the area, causing serious damage to a large number of houses, infrastructure, vehicles and ships. On the afternoon of the 30th, "Ian" made landfall in South Carolina from the Atlantic Ocean with a Category 1 hurricane intensity, with maximum sustained wind speed. Reaching 140 kilometers per hour, causing life-threatening storm surges, destructive winds and flooding, it then continued to weaken and dissipate.

Screenshots of the video before and after the passage of Hurricane Ian.

Chuck Watson, a geophysicist and disaster risk modeling expert at Enki Research, had earlier estimated that the damage caused by "Ian" to the United States is expected to be between 60 billion and 700 billion.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) statistics, this will make "Ian" the sixth highest economic loss hurricane in the history of the United States, far higher than the previous one. Hurricane "Andrew" that swept across Florida in 1992 topped the list with "Katrina" in 2005, which caused $186.3 billion in economic losses (the amount is adjusted for inflation in 2022).